Ajit Pawar of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and Uddhav Thackeray of the Shiv Sena, leaders of rival factions in Maharashtra, are grappling with similar challenges as they prepare for the state’s highly contentious upcoming assembly elections.
Maharashtra, a crucial swing state, finds itself in disarray, with seat allocations and alliance lineups remaining uncertain.
It remains to be seen who will be in or out of an alliance for strategic or tactical reasons — a question that will only become clearer in the months ahead — where every move will have hidden implications and nothing can be taken at face value.
Notably, speculation has persisted for quite some time now, suggesting that Ajit Pawar’s NCP may be excluded from the ruling Maha Yuti alliance, allowing the dominant Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and chief minister Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena faction to divide seats among themselves, potentially leaving Ajit Pawar to fend for himself.
This might be a calculated strategy, by remaining out Ajit Pawar may be able to tap into the secular vote base of the Maha Vikas Aghadi, which comprises the Congress, Sharad Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), and Thackeray’s Shiv Sena faction.
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Recently, Ajit Pawar attacked those in the Shinde Sena and the BJP, who had made objectionable statements against Leader of Opposition (LoP) Rahul Gandhi.
Sharing the stage with the chief minister as well as deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis, he had advised them to rein in the loudmouths in their parties.
Interestingly, Ajit Pawar has also kept his distance from functions associated with the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) and has refrained from visiting the RSS headquarters during a visit to Nagpur.
What is increasingly becoming clear is that while the BJP and the Shinde Sena want to harp on the Hindutva issue, Ajit Pawar wants to emphasise that he has not abandoned the all-encompassing path of — Mahatma Jyotirao Phule, Shahu Maharaj and B.R. Ambedkar — the icons of Maharashtra.
Pawar versus Pawar
In Maha Yuti’s scheme of things, Ajit Pawar is sought to be made the Trojan Horse to damage the Opposition from within.
The Maha Yuti aims to weaken the Aghadi in several seats by informally asking Ajit Pawar to fight there independently. The BJP knows that whatever happens, Ajit Pawar cannot go against its interests as the Narendra Modi government could tighten the screws on him on the issue of massive corruption.
Ajit Pawar’s octogenarian uncle Sharad Pawar, however, has initiated a countermove to weaken his ambitious nephew. Sharad Pawar’s party has approached the Supreme Court praying that the “clock” symbol temporarily handed over to Ajit Pawar’s party by the Election Commission should be frozen if there is a delay in deciding the issue about which is the real NCP.
The reasoning of Sharad Pawar’s party is that allowing Ajit Pawar to use the ‘clock” in the assembly polls will give him an unfair advantage.
Sharad Pawar’s plea in the apex court could land Ajit Pawar in a tricky situation as it would be very difficult to reach out to people with a new symbol at the 11th hour.
The googly could harm Ajit Pawar if the uncle’s plan succeeds. Interestingly, Sharad Pawar has used the Lok Sabha poll campaign to make people aware of “tutari (trumpet)”, the new symbol allotted to his party.
The friction in Maha Vikas Aghadi
Thackeray’s party is facing challenges within the Maha Vikas Aghadi alliance, with the Congress and Sharad Pawar’s NCP, making seat allocation difficult for the Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray Sena (UBT Sena) as they adopt a wait-and-see approach.
Thackeray is growing restless as Congress and Sharad Pawar’s NCP, with its strong Congress ties, thwart the UBT Sena’s plans to have it both ways — securing key seats and leadership. The way the Sena had gone about claiming a seat like Sangli, a traditional Congress stronghold with significant NCP support, in the Lok Sabha polls didn’t sit well with the Maha Vikas Aghadi alliance. Consequently, Congress and Sharad Pawar’s party have quietly joined forces on certain issues.
The UBT Sena’s insistence that the Aghadi project a chief ministerial candidate ahead of the elections has not gone down well with either the Congress or Sharad Pawar’s party. Thackeray’s party doesn’t explicitly state it, but feels that keeping the issue of leadership open goes against the interests of their leader who was the chief minister before the split.
Before the emergence of Modi on the national scene a decade back, the undivided Shiv Sena used to be the elder brother in the alliance in the state and the BJP used to play the second fiddle readily agreeing to the seat allocation carried out by the Sena. But, the times have changed.
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Following the Shiv Sena split two years ago, both Thackeray’s and Shinde’s factions must outperform each other to claim the crown of the real Shiv Sena as the weaker faction risks eventual oblivion. Interestingly, neither has lagged behind so far. Notably, Shinde’s Shiv Sena faction boasted a higher strike rate in the Lok Sabha polls, securing seven seats though Thackeray’s party won more seats, it’s essential to consider that they contested more seats as well.
Thackeray’s party is increasingly realising that its ‘my way or the highway’ approach, effective during Shiv Sena’s unified days, now has minimal impact on the Congress and Sharad Pawar’s NCP, which are past masters in the game of negotiations.
Sharad Pawar stands as the tallest leader in Maharashtra’s political landscape, and the Maha Vikas Aghadi appears to be advancing according to the broader vision he has outlined. Now, he wants the Aghadi to be projected as the leader in the polls to minimise the post-poll complications, a stand with which the Congress is more than comfortable.
“There is no hurdle anywhere by not announcing the chief minister’s face. No need to think about it now. Who should lead should be decided according to the numbers. There is no need to make any arrangements before elections,” Pawar has repeatedly said.
This has painted the UBT Sena into a corner as it wanted Thackeray to be projected as the chief ministerial face. The moral of the story is that the political mess in Maharashtra is throwing up many imponderables.
Sunil Gatade and Venkatesh Kesari are New Delhi-based journalists.
