As Maharashtra heads into its state assembly elections, five constituencies – Andheri East, Andheri West, Pune Cantonment, Kandivali East, and Murbad – are poised to play a critical role in predicting the results. These so-called “bellwether” seats have consistently reflected broader electoral outcomes over the decades.
Since 1990, Andheri East, Andheri West, Kandivali East – all three in the Konkan region – and Pune Cantonment have consistently voted for the party that eventually won the state elections. Murbad, also from the Konkan region, boasts an even more exceptional track record, having supported the party that went on to form the government after every assembly election since 1952.
In 1995, for example, Murbad backed the BJP during the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance victory, marking the end of Congress’s dominance. The pattern repeated in 2014, with Murbad again supporting the BJP as it emerged victorious.
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Andheri, split into East and West during the 2008 delimitation, has continued its tradition of aligning with the winning party, cementing its reputation as a bellwether seat.
These constituencies are more than historical anomalies. They serve as key battlegrounds for political parties, often receiving disproportionate attention and resources during campaigns. Securing a win in a bellwether seat provides not just a symbolic victory but a psychological edge, often swaying public opinion and undecided voters.
For analysts and political enthusiasts, trends in these constituencies offer valuable early insights into the state’s overall electoral trajectory. As election day approaches, all eyes will be on Andheri East, Andheri West, Pune Cantonment, Kandivali East, and Murbad, where the outcomes may foreshadow Maharashtra’s political future.
