The Numbers Say Four Parties Could Play Spoilsport in the Maharashtra Assembly Polls

As Maharashtra braces for another fierce electoral showdown, the political landscape is sharply divided between two formidable alliances: the Mahayuti, a coalition led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), an opposition front comprising the Congress, Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) Sharad Pawar faction, and Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena faction. This seemingly bipolar race, however, obscures a critical undercurrent: Maharashtra’s smaller, often underestimated third-party players who could “spoil” the election for either alliance.

In first-past-the-post voting, victory requires only a plurality – one vote more than any other candidate. Voters mark one candidate as their favourite, and the candidate with most such marks is elected. The margin of victory, whether a single vote or tens of thousands, is inconsequential; what matters is the aggregation of wins across seats. This means that even without a majority, third parties can wield substantial influence by drawing votes away from leading contenders, particularly in close contests. In Maharashtra, where voter loyalties are as divided as they are passionate, these minor players – if ignored – could dramatically alter the election’s outcome.

Also read: Maharashtra: What the Lok Sabha Election Numbers Say About the Assembly Polls

This effectively means that the more the votes split among candidates opposing the main contender, the higher the chances of winning the seat. However, it’s important to note that simply having many candidates running against the main contender isn’t enough – these candidates must have significant relative strength to impact the outcome.

The 2019 state election underscores their strength and potential impact. In a contest dominated by the two main alliances, four smaller parties consistently punched above their weight, collectively finishing third in 157 out of 288 constituencies. The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS), Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA), and All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) have emerged as fixtures in Maharashtra’s political theatre, albeit with varying levels of influence and support across the state. They have introduced an element of unpredictability that both MY and MVA will need to factor into their strategies.

The VBA, led by Prakash Ambedkar, grandson of Dr. B.R. Ambedkar, made a significant mark in the last state election. Contesting in 236 seats and securing a third-place finish in 109, the party demonstrated considerable reach. The party’s median vote count of 6,773 suggests steady support across the constituencies it contested. This base, though insufficient for widespread wins, reflects a level of influence that could play a decisive role in a close race. With its appeal to Dalit and marginalised communities, the VBA’s independent campaign could potentially fragment votes that might have otherwise consolidated behind one of the major alliances.

Similarly, the MNS, the firebrand party led by Raj Thackeray, remains a political wildcard. Though the party has struggled to build statewide appeal, its localised strength is undeniable. The MNS contested 101 seats in 2019, finishing third in 25, with a median vote count of 4,062 suggesting a dedicated base in specific regions. Known for its combative rhetoric and Maharashtra-centric nationalism, the MNS could influence tight races, especially in areas where Marathi identity politics resonate. 

Then there’s AIMIM, a party whose impact is concentrated but substantial in specific communities. Contesting only 44 seats in the 2019 election, AIMIM achieved a median vote count of 7,370 – the highest among these third-party players. The party finished third in 11 seats, demonstrating a solid foothold in select constituencies with significant Muslim populations. Given the level of communal polarisation that the BJP and its star campaigners, like Uttar Pradesh chief minister Adityanath, are fostering, AIMIM’s role becomes even more pronounced. 

Meanwhile, the BSP’s performance illustrates both the reach and limitations of broad, unfocused campaigns in Maharashtra. Contesting the highest number of seats at 262, the BSP finished third in only 12, with a median vote count of just 1,193. The party’s widespread but low-impact presence hints at diluted influence—a strategy that may require recalibration. Yet even the BSP, with its base among marginalised communities, could impact outcomes in close races, especially if it consolidates its resources in a smaller number of target constituencies.

In total, there are 48 seats where these parties have secured a vote share percentage higher than the winning margin percentage. Of these, VBA accounts for 32 seats, MNS has 6, while BSP and AIMIM have 5 seats each.

The real spoiler potential of these four parties lies in the 48 constituencies where their 2019 vote share percentage exceeded the margin percentage of victory. These seats can be considered their strongholds, and their performance in these seats could well determine the election’s outcome, especially in close contests. They have the potential to upset the calculations of either alliance.

Moreover, given the splits in both the Shiv Sena and the NCP, along with the impact of rebels and independents in the running this time, we can expect more vote fragmentation around the main contenders. But the full extent of this spoiler effect will only be known when the results are announced on November 23.