Maharashtra goes to the polls on November 20 and the outcome may be difficult to predict but what does the pre-poll division of spoils within each alliance tell us about the state of play in the state?
Out of the 288 seats in the fray, the alliance-wise break up of seats needs to be looked at as the expression of power balance as well as the post-poll expectations of the alliance partners.
The Mahayuti alliance partners – the BJP, Shiv Sena (Shinde) and NCP (Ajit Pawar) – are contesting on 145, 83 and 51 seats respectively. As against, this the Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi comprising the Congress, NCP (Sharad Pawar) and the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Thackeray) together are contesting on 103, 96 and 87 seats respectively.
This distribution is a clear give away in terms of the inner power dynamic of the two alliances. The BJP has a predominance in the NDA alliance, having wrested slightly more than 50% of the total seats for itself. Thus, the BJP has reasserted its pre-eminent position in the alliance (as it did with the undivided Shiv Sena in 2019) and has also staked a natural claim to the chief minister’s position in case of the NDA victory.
As against this logic, the INDIA alliance partners have a more or less equal distribution of seats, though the Congress has a marginally a higher share of seats compared to its alliance partners. The INDIA alliance has thus kept claims to the chief minister’s position as an open question.
If we look at the regional allocation of sets, we see that in Mumbai the Shiv Sena (Udhhav) is in a direct contest with the NDA in 16 seats out of 39 seats, thus underlying its perception of being the dominant partner in the region in the INDIA alliance. In the Thane and Konkan belt, again it is the Shiv Sena (Uddhav) that is the dominant partner with 16 seats in direct contest with the NDA. In western Maharashtra, the NCP (Sharad Pawar) is fighting 27 out of the total 70 seats in the region. In Marathwada, the Congress is in a direct fight with BJP on 11 seats and in the decider region of Vidarbha, the Congress is in a direct fight with the BJP in 31 out of the total number of 62 seats in the region.
It is against this background that we now need look at the issues that are raised by both the alliances as the jostling to impose a narrative now begins. In the Lok Sabha elections held only some four months ago the INDIA alliance narrative did prevail over the NDA. To what extent will that story be repeated?
Let us look at the regional strengths, issues as well as forthcoming narratives as they will influence the voting pattern in the respective regions.
In Vidarbha, the issue of agriculture pricing in cotton and soybean is a major factor in the farming community. Though the Union government announced a support price of Rs. 4892 per quintal for soybean, farmers have had to sell their crop at the Rs 3500-4000 per quintal, which barely recovers the cost of production. Vidarbha has also witnessed over the past three decades the tragic consequences of the agrarian crisis in the form of farmers committing suicide. Vidarbha, home to cotton farming and in last two decades to soybean is also home to a large tribal population. The agrarian distress, issues of development and employment opportunities and how the narrative will shape around the same there will be a major element in the outcome.
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The Marathwada region too is predominantly agrarian in nature. In this region lies the village of Antarwali Sarati. This village in the Ambad taluka in Jalna district has been the home of Manoj Jarange Patil, the pre-eminent leader of the Maratha reservation agitation. He and the leadership that he has forged has managed to mobilise the dominant Maratha community on an unprecedented scale across the state in general and of course in the region of Marathwada and western Maharashtra in particular. The Maratha community of course is decisive in electoral terms as it forms the largest bloc of votes in the state. The influence of this agitation in the Marathwada region was widely observed in the recent Lok Sabha elections, where the INDIA alliance won 7 out of 8 seats. In the assembly elections, the 46 seats of Marathwada and 20 seats of Western Maharashtra could be impacted due to the reach of the agitation. This agitation has led to counter-mobilisation by the Other Backward Castes and the effect of such a polarisation remains to be seen. The MVA demand for a caste census needs also to be analysed in terms of the complex position that this question that has come to occupy in the state. It is, however, certain that the ruling alliance is likely to suffer a setback in Marathwada as the reasons that determined the voting pattern in the Lok Sabha election are almost intact.
In the critical region of western Maharashtra, the issues of political economy are almost at par with the kinship tensions, and the alliances that were forged within the kin groups prior to the split in the NCP are being severely tested. The local substratum of sugarcane and milk cooperatives and their control has always been a major factor in the districts of Kolhapur, Sangli and to an extent in Satara. Such control has often been seen as the building bloc of a power base for individuals and kin groups who in turn chose their political formations. The tensions in such power blocs this time have radiated from the region of Baramati, the epicentre of both the NCPs because of the split in the party. This split has added a layered complexity to the region. The battle of narratives will be decided on the respective alliances’ ability to win over kin groups, distant and near ones, and then forge meaningful alliances with the non-kin who will have a say in the political economy of the region in the critical districts of Sangli Kolhapur, Satara, and the Phaltan, Baramati, Saswad, and Maval regions of Pune district. Thus, to what extent the agrarian distress in Vidarbha and Marathwada as well as the influence of the reservation agitation gets exercised will perhaps be important and the political formations that are able to incorporate these and have traction on ground should do well in these regions.
In the western Maharashtra region, the way alliances in the kin groups that control the milk and sugar cooperatives and marketing federations change and evolve remains to be seen. It is here that emotive factors come into play. The sense of loyalty and the perceived benefits of staying in one alliance or the other are some of the important considerations. The ruling alliance had initiated the direct cash transfer scheme and the effects of that in terms of electoral benefits is something that remains to be seen. To what extent these direct cash transfers have touched the households in the three regions described above will be crucial as a counter poise.
The region-wise outcome of the battle for narratives will determine the fate of the election. At the moment given all the considerations, the MVA looks to be holding an edge in the critical regions of Vidarbha as well as in Marathwada and the battle is well and truly joined in Mumbai and Konkan between the Sena of Thackeray and the BJP. In western Maharashtra, there is a sense on ground that the kin networks are veering towards NCP (Sharad Pawar) and thus the alliance he is part of.
Ajay Vishwas Dandekar is faculty at the Shiv Nadar Institution of Eminence. Shriranjan Awate is faculty at the Savitribai Phule Pune University. The views expressed by the authors are their own and not of the institutions that they belong to.
This piece was first published on The India Cable – a premium newsletter from The Wire & Galileo Ideas – and has been updated and republished here. To subscribe to The India Cable, click here.
