Why Maharashtra Signals a Decline of the Modi-Shah Brand of Politics

By now we know that both Narendra Modi and Amit Shah are obsessed with controlling information and the narrative on a day-to-day basis.

It has become a sort of addictive exercise for both and they thrive on it.

An extended seven-phase election actually helps them play this elaborate game of information and narrative management. For instance, Modi laughed while admitting to a large audience on India TV channel that 400-paar (400-plus seats) was meant to distract the opposition and media alike. He suggested it was always known that only 272 seats were needed to form a government.

Similarly, the Election Commission suddenly clamped down on giving basic information about voter turnout – something which was routinely done in the past. Why did the EC resort to this needless secrecy, one may ask. The answer is Modi wanted to control and counter the narrative that a low turnout meant the PM was losing his sheen and not attracting the sizeable incremental voters he brought to the BJP in 2014 and 2019.

The truth is that the media has been reporting from across India that the Modi magic of 2014 and 2019 was missing this time as elections were fought largely at the constituency and state levels, with unemployment, inflation and rural distress as common themes, pan India.

Even the downward sentiment in stock markets for a couple of weeks after the first phase indicated that the verdict could be more uncertain than the “400-paar” Modi and Shah had propagated after the inauguration of the half-constructed Ram Mandir. The Satta Bazar began with 335 seats for BJP but came down to 290 by the third phase and has climbed back to 300 now after some perception management by Modi and Shah.

Suddenly election managers like Prashant Kishore have started speaking to the media after the fifth phase to suggest that BJP alone will do better than its 2019 tally (303 seats) and may even win in 315 to 320 Lok Sabha constituencies.

Kishore expressed this view to Karan Thapar in an interview to The Wire. Strangely, Kishore also endorsed Yogendra Yadav’s forecast – that BJP alone could get confined to 240 to 260 seats, which is well below the majority mark of 272 seats. Kishore’s own internal dilemmas are quite intriguing. But going by what Yogendra Yadav says, the National Democratic Alliance combine could hit the half way mark. That would still somewhat diminish Modi’s image of invincibility.

Kishore conceded to Thapar that BJP could lose upto 50 seats in the North and Western region (he included Karnataka in West) but at the same time, he argued that the BJP would make up for this loss in the Eastern and Southern states. A closer look at the elections in East and South India clearly establishes that BJP cannot win 50 extra seats in states like West Bengal, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Tamil Nadu.

Meanwhile, in the midst of such forecasts by analysts and political pundits, the BJP leadership is vigorously talking up its prospects. Both Amit Shah and party president J.P. Nadda are confidently saying the BJP has already crossed 310 seats at the end of the sixth phase of voting.

Needless to say, a lot of bravado and bluster comes through in such statements by the top leadership. Amit Shah even urged investors to buy shares as the stock markets would soar after June 4. Never before have top leaders linked the stock markets with elections so explicitly.

As I said earlier, this is part of the psychological games that must be played in a seven-phase election.

None of this would happen if the polls were held in two or three phases, and completed within 15 to 20 days. This yo-yoing of narratives has become an integral part of India’s extended electioneering.

Whatever the nature of the perception games being played by various parties, some truths cannot be wished away in the 2024 elections. There is massive anti-incumbency in many states, purely on account of livelihood issues, unemployment and inflation. In some states, the anti-incumbency is much more widespread than in others. For instance in Maharashtra, the second largest state after UP , with 48 seats, Modi and BJP face the most intense anti-incumbency. Maharashtra could well prove to be the biggest swing state favouring the opposition alliance.

It can also pave the way for a broader consolidation of opposition politics against Modi and BJP in the future.

The anger in Maharashtra is mostly directed against the BJP at the Centre. Modi and Shah are well aware of this disaffection in Maharashtra against the BJP alliance. Lok Satta editor Girish Kuber told me that Modi had probably sensed the negative mood in Maharashtra much earlier and thus made about 18 visits to the state since the election was announced. This is quite unprecedented.

As one travelled through Sholapur, Aurangabad and Nashik districts the sheer anger on the streets was palpable. The largest onion mandi in Asia, Lasalgaon in Nashik district, has a large ecosystem of farmers, traders and other allied economic agents. They are greatly upset that the Centre banned onion exports six months ago and onion prices crashed over 75%, affecting their lives and livelihood.

The President of Lasalgaon onion mandi, Balasaheb Ramnath Shirsagar, said, “Earlier governments were brought down because of rising onion prices. This time the government will be brought down because of the crash in onion prices.” He said the Modi government allowed Pakistan to capture the onion market globally by putting a minimum export price for Indian onions which is way higher than the price at which Pakistan is exporting across the world. India is priced out of the market by Pakistan, he said.

The Modi government has helped Pakistan grow its market abroad, he alleged.

Soya bean farmers too are protesting that the price they get in the market barely covers the costs. Member of Maharashtra cabinet Chagan Bhujbal said he pleaded with the Centre not to ban onion exports or to set such a high minimum export price but no one listened. This was one big mistake made by the Modi government.

This negativity is compounded by the agitation for Maratha reservation led by Manoj Jarange Patil who had led a protest march of 2 million youth to Mumbai some months ago. Patil, who has been sitting on a dharna and fasting in his village Antrawali in Jalna district indicated to us that the Maratha youth will vote en masse against the BJP alliance and that he would resume the agitation after the general elections to influence the Maharashtra assembly polls later this year.

The BJP seems caught in a perfect storm in Maharashtra even as a general resentment is building up among Maharashtrians over the way the Centre has splintered the politics of the state. There is widespread sympathy for Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar. There is also an underlying resentment over the way economic projects and employment have shifted from Maharashtra to Gujarat.

All these sentiments taken together could create a serious existential crises for Modi and Shah in Maharashtra.

As things stand, most analysts suggest that out of 48 seats in the state the NDA alliance could drop dramatically from 41 seats in 2019 to fewer than 20 this time. The BJP itself could lose about seven to eight seats from its tally of 23 in 2019. Clearly, Maharashtra leads the anti-incumbency sentiment against the BJP in the 2024 elections.

There is varying degree of anti-incumbency in other states like Haryana, Delhi, Bihar, Jharkhand, parts of Rajasthan and UP which could add up to a loss of upto 50 seats for BJP from the Northern and Western region as per the assessment of both Yogendra Yadav and Prashant Kishore. Of course, Kishore also reckons that a loss of 50 seats will not cause any “material damage” to BJP as it would get compensated in the East and South.

From all accounts, the 2024 elections are clearly up in the air. But one thing is self-evident – Narendra Modi of 2024 is not the same as Narendra Modi of 2014 or 2019. Gone are the times when Modi would arrive in the eleventh hour to sway neutral voters towards the BJP with a stirring speech. He has become much too predictable even in what he has to say as some of his recent speeches have shown. He has become worse in his low-level diatribes against the opposition parties and their leaders. The gradual decline in Modi’s political persona is now a fact of life which is unlikely to change.

The 2024 results could be the first reflection of this even if the NDA gets another shot at power. Things will never be the same again for Narendra Modi.