For the first time in more than 27 years, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) broke its long poll exile in the national capital, sweeping to power in 48 seats. The comeback is a moment of reckoning in the rapidly evolving and changing political landscape of Delhi, where Arvind Kejriwal, once an impenetrable force against the Modi wave, now finds himself at the lowest point of his career having even lost his own seat in the New Delhi constituency.
A preliminary analysis of vote share data mapped across constituencies suggests that while the difference in total vote share between the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the BJP remains around 2%, the impact on seat share has been disproportionately high. The electoral contest was exceptionally tight, yet the BJP managed to convert marginal vote shifts into sweeping seat gains.
AAP’s collapsing fort: Anti-incumbency, unfulfilled promises, and voter disillusionment
Anti-incumbency has cast a long shadow over the AAP, with the last five years being marked by stagnating development, governance fatigue, and growing disillusionment among the voters. But what makes the BJP’s comeback all the more stunning is that it has been able to do so without a strong local leader.
Instead, the party systematically dismantled the credibility of Kejriwal, working methodically to target his governance record, questioning his moral authority, and exposing alleged scandals like the controversial liquor policy case and the extravagant expenditure on his “Sheesh Mahal” residence. These narratives have transformed the public image of a leader who was once idolised as a crusader against corruption.
However, the biggest dent in the AAP’s reputation came from its inability to fulfil some of its most fundamental promises – particularly those concerning essential services like water and sanitation. Despite repeated assurances, Delhi’s water crisis has worsened, with large sections of the city still struggling with irregular supply, rampant wastage, and contamination issues.
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According to a report by the Observer Research Foundation, the Delhi Jal Board (DJB) supplies approximately 946 million gallons per day (mgd) of water, while the city generates about 792 mgd of sewage. However, only around 72% of this sewage is treated, with the remaining untreated waste flowing directly into the Yamuna River, worsening pollution levels and posing serious health risks.
The promise of 24×7 clean drinking water remains largely unfulfilled, with complaints of tanker mafias controlling distribution continuing to surface. Furthermore, consumer dissatisfaction with water quality persists, as many households still receive contaminated or insufficient supply. Similarly, the much-hyped improvements in sanitation infrastructure have fallen short, with drainage and waste management systems in many localities remaining inefficient. These gaps in governance have fuelled voter frustration, particularly among the urban poor and middle-class households who once formed the backbone of the AAP’s support.
A battle of margins: Close contests across Delhi
This election, however, was no one-sided affair.
The intensity of the battle can be measured through the razor-thin margins in numerous key constituencies, making this one of Delhi’s most edge-of-the-seat electoral battles in years. With both the BJP and the AAP polling in excess of 40% of the vote share, the difference between them is only less than 5% – highlighting just how tightly contested this election really was. There have been constituencies that have gone down to the wire, with vote tallies fluctuating by mere hundreds of votes.
With both major contenders securing over 40% of the vote, one would expect a proportional seat distribution. Yet, the final tally tells a vastly different story – one where close contests have translated into a sweeping victory for the BJP. This pattern isn’t unique to Delhi; it echoes a growing trend in Indian elections, where a minor swing in votes results in a landslide shift in power. Is this merely the mathematics of the first-past-the-post system, or is there a deeper, more complex electoral undercurrent at play?
Adding to the intrigue is the extraordinary spike in voter registrations – over 510,000 Form-6 applications flooded in after December 15, coinciding with key populist announcements. The Election Commission (EC) was quick to tighten scrutiny, wary of potential discrepancies. In Kejriwal’s own constituency, polling booth number 18 at Kali Bari Marg recorded a staggering 53.14% voter deletion rate, largely due to post-demolition relocations. Similar anomalies have surfaced before – Rahul Gandhi recently flagged the addition of nine lakh voters in Maharashtra within just five months, compared to 32 lakh over five years.
Party-wise vote share in Delhi assembly polls 2025. Source: ECI
EC data reveals a closely contested battle in New Delhi, where Kejriwal lost to BJP’s Parvesh Sahib Singh by 4,089 votes. In Mehrauli, AAP’s Mahender Chaudhary faced a similarly tight defeat, losing to BJP’s Gajender Singh Yadav by just 1782 votes.
In Timarpur, BJP’s Surya Prakash Khatri secured victory with a narrow margin of 1168 votes, while in Wazirpur, BJP’s Poonam Sharma beat AAP’s Rajesh Gupta by 11,425 votes.
In Sangam Vihar, BJP’s Chandan Kumar Choudhary lost to AAP’s Dinesh Mohaniya by just 344 votes, in a contest that remained unpredictable throughout the count.
While Mamata Banerjee only lost from the Nandigram assembly seat yet managed to retain power in 2021 West Bengal polls, the AAP’s top leadership has suffered the dual blow of losing their own seat and majority in the Assembly too.
Kejriwal, once the face of an unstoppable political movement that defied the Modi wave in 2015 and 2020, has now lost in his stronghold of New Delhi. Other prominent AAP leaders like Manish Sisodia and Saurabh Bharadwaj were also defeated.
AAP struggles to hold ground across Delhi’s key regions
The contrast across different districts is stark, revealing a political earthquake that Kejriwal will have to urgently address. Whether it is East Delhi, North East Delhi, or West Delhi, the saffron surge has been unmissable, pushing the AAP to the brink.
Even in Chandni Chowk and New Delhi, where the party once enjoyed a stronghold, the tide has turned decisively against them. The most shocking trend, however, emerges in North West Delhi and South Delhi, where the BJP has practically bulldozed the competition, leaving AAP scrambling for answers.
For Kejriwal, this is more than just a defeat he intentionally walked into this election gambling his political legacy and today he gets a wake-up call. As the national convenor of his party, he must now go back to the drawing board to reassess his strategies and address how the cracks have emerged within his core voter base who has drifted away to the BJP in addition to those who felt betrayed by the AAP and went to the Congress instead.
The rout suggests not just anti-incumbency but also a deeper disillusionment with the AAP’s governance, making it clear that its grip on Delhi is no longer unchallenged. Keeping his party together will require more than just damage control rather a complete strategic reset.
The writing is on the wall. Delhi, long considered an impenetrable fortress for AAP, is witnessing a seismic political realignment in motion. Governance in the city stands at a crossroads, with a change in its direction for years to come, with BJP’s re-emergence not a re-entry into politics, but a thunderous statement of intent. Not only will this election go down in statistics, but for its breathtaking contest that it turned out to be – a reflection of how unpredictable and exciting democracy can actually become.
Also read: Backstory: Post Major AAPset, Understanding the Decline of a Mediatised Political Party
But the BJP’s victory wasn’t just about anti-incumbency or campaign strategy – it was also about timing. The Union finance minister’s last-minute tax breaks for the middle class swung the fence-sitter voters in the BJP’s favour, sealing the party’s dominance across Delhi.
The majority of Delhi’s electorate falls into the Rs 7-12 lakh income bracket, and the promise of increased disposable income resonated deeply, particularly in constituencies with a high concentration of salaried professionals, small business owners, and self-employed individuals. Areas that had previously been closely contested saw a decisive shift, as middle-class voters, particularly in residential hubs and business districts, tilted toward the BJP in response to the economic relief.
This tactical economic manoeuvre helped BJP cut through AAP’s traditional voter base, especially in areas where cost-of-living concerns dominate political sentiment. With household budgets stretched thin in recent years, a direct financial incentive was a game-changer, creating an immediate, tangible benefit that many found hard to ignore. For AAP, the challenge ahead is enormous – if it fails to reconnect with its core middle-class supporters, the erosion of its voter base might only accelerate.
Deepanshu Mohan is a Professor of Economics, Dean, IDEAS, and Director, Centre for New Economics Studies. He is a Visiting Professor at London School of Economics and an Academic Visiting Fellow to AMES, University of Oxford.
Ankur Singh is a Research Assistant with Centre for New Economics Studies (CNES) and a team member of its InfoSphere initiative.
Najan Us Saqib is a Phd scholar at Central University of Kashmir. He is a Senior Research Analyst with Centre for New Economics Studies (CNES), OP Jindal Global University.
