Kolkata: The Bhowanipore by-election is going to be another turning point in the political career of chief minister Mamata Banerjee, as her dream of catapulting herself into national politics depends largely on the win or loss in this tiny suburban area of south Kolkata.
In the Bhowanipore by-poll, the Trinamool Congress chief is pitted against Priyanka Tibrewal of the Bharatiya Janata Party and Communist Party of India (Marxist) candidate Srijib Biswas. Nearly 40% of the electorate in Bhowanipore assembly constituency, from where Banerjee will contest a crucial by-poll on September 30, is made up of Gujaratis, Marwaris, Sikhs and Biharis. Around 20% are Muslims, while the remaining 40% are Bengalis.
During Banerjee’s speeches in the by-election campaign at various places in Bhowanipore, she has been repeatedly urging voters to vote for her, saying each vote matters. If she can win Bhowanipore, she can win the rest of India. If people want to get rid of the BJP government from the Centre, she says, then they should vote for her.
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Incidentally, during her rigorous campaign in Bhowanipore, Banerjee has been meeting and greeting people of all the communities in their language and talking about religious tolerance towards all communities.
In the predominantly Bengali Hindu locality, she has been visiting Hindu temples and speaking to people in Bengali. On the other hand, in the Sikh Punjabi area in Bhowanipore, Banerjee is seen visiting gurdwaras and mixing with the Sikh population in their own language.
Political analysts, however, are of the opinion that Banerjee seems to be giving more importance to the upcoming by-election in Bhowanipore than it deserves. Possibly, she is using this to achieve something larger than merely getting elected to the assembly to continue as chief minister of the state. One may also see the ‘once bitten, twice shy’ attitude in her approach and the high-pitched campaign for a by-election, which otherwise looks like a routine constitutional formality.
Biswanath Chakraborty, senior political analyst and professor of political science at Rabindra Bharati University, said, “In her political career, before the 2021 assembly election in Nandigram, she has been defeated only once, in the Lok Sabha elections, by the CPI(M). She is aware of the consequences of another defeat and that may explain her energised approach to the by-election. At the same time, during the campaign for a by-election in a safe city-based seat, her overtones and references to national aspirations and issues cannot be missed. She is leaving no opportunity to attack the ruling BJP at the Centre while projecting her aspirations to spread the TMC’s reach in other states. Thus, she is placing a subtle choice before the electorate. If you vote for her, she will continue as chief minister and take the party to other states and defeat the BJP. In other words, she is using the by-election to establish her acceptance in national politics.”
According to Imankalyan Lahiri, senior political analyst and professor of international relations at Jadavpur University, if Banerjee loses this election, not only will her plan to make a foray into national politics go awry, but “a big question mark will come up in her political career”.
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According to constitutional provisions, if Banerjee does not win from Bhowanipore, her chief ministership will come to an end and another MLA from her party will have to replace her as chief minister.
After she lost in the assembly election at Nandigram to BJP leader Suvendu Adhikari, she took oath as chief minister, but constitutional provisions have it that an unelected minister has to win an election within six months from the date of her loss. That is why the entire cabinet has been deployed and ministers, especially Firhad Hakim (Banerjee’s trusted lieutenant who represents Chetla, which is adjacent to the Bhowanipore constituency), have launched a door-to-door campaign for the chief minister.
According to BJP leaders, Banerjee herself is playing divisive politics and trying to create a division between various communities. She is using these tactics to polarise voters, they argue. Dilip Ghosh, senior BJP leader, said, “We demanded that the election should be postponed. As a result of Banerjee’s divisive politics, there has been large-scale violence in Bhowanipore and we have already informed the Election Commission to look into the matter.”
