The upcoming by-election for the Mau Sadar Assembly seat in eastern Uttar Pradesh is shaping into a significant political event within the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) as both the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) are eyeing the constituency.

While the SBSP has explicitly declared it will field a candidate, the BJP has indicated its interest through strategic signals and cautious public remarks.

The by-election was necessitated after the disqualification of SBSP MLA Abbas Ansari, son of mafia-turned-politician Mukhtar Ansari, who was sentenced to two years in prison by a special MP-MLA court in Mau. The conviction stemmed from a speech during the 2022 assembly election campaign, where Abbas allegedly threatened government officials with retribution if the SP-led alliance returned to power. Following the court’s order, the Uttar Pradesh Assembly Secretariat acted swiftly and declared the Mau seat vacant.

The SBSP, a regional ally within the NDA, wasted no time in staking its claim. Party president Om Prakash Rajbhar told reporters unequivocally, “Mau is our seat. We won it in 2022, and we will contest the by-election. There is no ambiguity in our stand.” His son and SBSP general secretary Arun Rajbhar echoed the statement and told The Wire, “Our candidate will not be from the Ansari family, but the party will contest the election from Mau.”

In contrast, the BJP has stopped short of openly claiming the seat, but several recent remarks by its leadership suggest a growing interest. Uttar Pradesh BJP president Bhupendra Chaudhary, when asked about the bypoll, said, “The NDA will contest the Mau seat. The final decision on the candidate will be taken after due consultation with all allies and the central leadership.”

Although Chaudhary avoided stating whether the BJP or SBSP would field the candidate, the phrasing has drawn attention in political circles. BJP spokesperson Harish Chandra Srivastava told The Wire, “It’s natural for Rajbharji to express interest since his party won the seat last time. But all NDA allies will decide together and the announcement will be made jointly.”

Political observers believe the BJP’s cautious language indicates its interest in fielding its candidate, especially in light of its recent performance in challenging constituencies like Rampur. “The BJP wants to make inroads in regions that were once strongholds of rival leaders,” said political analyst Deoki Nandan Mishra. “While SBSP has formally declared its intent, the BJP’s positioning suggests it is evaluating its chances seriously.”

The Mau constituency carries substantial symbolic weight. For nearly three decades, it was the stronghold of the Ansari family. Mukhtar Ansari, a five-time MLA from Mau between 1996 and 2017, held sway over the constituency through a mix of political strategy and grassroots connections. In 2022, his son Abbas Ansari won the seat on an SBSP ticket while the party was aligned with the Samajwadi Party (SP). Mukhtar’s brother Afzal Ansari is an SP MP from the Ghazipur seat.

After the election, the SBSP shifted alliances and joined the BJP-led NDA. Rajbhar was inducted into the Yogi Adityanath government as a cabinet minister following months of negotiations. That political transition has now complicated the bypoll dynamics.

“Mau is an emotionally charged seat for the SBSP, but the BJP is now much more assertive in UP, especially after recent bypoll successes,” said Sunita Aron, consulting editor at Hindustan Times. “The BJP’s strategy in similar contests like Rampur and Kundarki shows they are open to contesting high-profile seats regardless of previous alignments. The candidate they choose – if they do field one – will be crucial.”

Recently, the BJP has strategically targeted opposition leaders' strongholds. Rampur, once considered impregnable under SP veteran Azam Khan, saw BJP’s Akash Saxena win the seat in a by-election after Khan's disqualification in 2022. Similarly, Kundarki fell to the BJP after the seat was vacated following the election of Ziaur Rahman Barq – grandson of SP MP Shafiqur Rahman Barq – to the Lok Sabha from Sambhal in 2024.

The death of Mukhtar Ansari in Banda jail on March 28, 2024, has further altered the political landscape in Mau. According to political observers, while the Ansari name still resonates among many voters, the absence of a clear family candidate may leave room for a competitive multi-cornered contest. Still, the family’s influence remains. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Mukhtar’s brother Afzal Ansari was elected as the MP from Ghazipur, indicating their base retains political weight.

Experts suggest that the BJP, emboldened by previous gains and sensing a vacuum, may be weighing its options in Mau more seriously than it admits publicly. “The repeated use of the term ‘NDA will contest’ rather than naming SBSP points to the BJP’s strategic messaging,” said a senior political commentator. “It leaves room for a BJP candidate without creating friction – at least in the public eye.”

The UP Assembly currently comprises 403 seats. The BJP holds 258 seats, while its NDA allies – SBSP and Nishad Party – have five MLAs each. Apna Dal (S) commands 13 seats, and the Rashtriya Lok Dal has 9. Abbas Ansari’s disqualification brought the NDA’s total strength to 290. Despite the commanding majority, maintaining alliance cohesion and managing regional aspirations are critical for BJP’s long-term strategy in the state.

As preparations for the bypoll begin, the key question remains: Will the BJP yield the Mau ticket to its ally, or will it take the contest into its hands? Both parties continue to project unity, yet their moves reflect distinct ambitions.

For now, the SBSP stands firm in its claim and has made its intentions public. The BJP, meanwhile, is carefully calibrating its position – signalling interest but waiting for the right moment to reveal its hand.

Whether the final ticket goes to SBSP or BJP, the pressure to win this politically sensitive seat will weigh heavily on the chosen candidate. The bypoll outcome may serve as a bellwether for future alliance dynamics and influence strategies across eastern Uttar Pradesh.

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