Singed by the loss of five elections in a row since 2012, the Bahujan Samaj Party, this time, is looking to its Muslim support base to keep it relevant in politics. But does it have what it takes to take on the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance? More importantly, does it want to?
Largely in an effort to woo the community, Mayawati has given nine tickets to Muslim candidates so far. These are in seats where Muslim votes play a decisive role in electoral battles. Muslim voters, though, see the BSP’s sudden surge of affection for them as an attempt to divide Muslim votes to help the BJP.
In the politically significant state of Uttar Pradesh, the Muslim population is nearly four crores, which is about 19-20% of the total state population. The community’s voter base was largely believed to have been loyal to Congress until the late 1980s. But after the Sangh Parivar-led demolition of the Babri Masjid in 1992, they moved to the Samajwadi Party (SP).
A ‘Mayawati-INDIA’ tussle
Political observers believe that after Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra, the perception of the Congress among Muslims has changed for the better.
Out of Mayawati’s nine Muslim candidates – named in its first list of candidates released on March 24 – four will take on Muslim INDIA alliance candidates in Amroha, Sambhal, Rampur, and Saharanpur constituencies.
They are Shaukat Ali from Sambhal, Mohammad Irfan Saifi from Moradabad, Mujahid Hussain from Amroha, Abid Ali from Aonla, Majid Ali from Saharanpur, Anis Ahmad Khan, alias Phoolbabu, from Pilibhit, and Zeeshan Khan from Rampur. In its third list of candidates released on April 3, BSP announced two more candidates Sarwar Malik and Imran bin Zafar from Lucknow and Kannauj seats respectively.
The INDIA alliance’s Muslim candidates for four of these seats are Imran Masood from Saharanpur (Congress), Maulana Mohibullah Nadvi from Rampur (SP), Zia Ur Rehman Barq from Sambhal, and Danish Ali from Amroha (Congress).
Mayawati did a similar experiment in the 2017 Uttar Pradesh assembly election by fielding 99 Muslim candidates on the BSP symbol. However, her strategy backfired, dividing Muslim votes between the Congress-Samajwadi Party alliance and the BSP. This division benefited the BJP, and it secured a stunning victory. The saffron party bagged 313 seats in an assembly of 403 seats. BSP finished with only 19 seats, five of which went to Muslims.
Also read: Why BJP’s Claim it Will Win All 80 Seats in Uttar Pradesh Is Very Far-Fetched
‘Trust deficit’
Tickets notwithstanding, many believe that there is a trust deficit between the party and the Muslim community. One of the reasons for this is Mayawati’s perceived indifference towards the party’s Muslim leaders. Naseemuddin Siddiqui was a prominent Muslim face of the BSP who played a pivotal role in bringing Muslims close to the pro-Dalit party BSP in 2007. In 2007, BSP formed the government on its own, and out of its total 206 seats, 24 lawmakers were Muslims.
Danish Ali, a member of parliament from Amroha, was the emerging Muslim face of the BSP. His sharp rhetoric against communalism and majoritarian politics in parliament made him popular among his community. Ali attained more empathy from the Muslim community in the aftermath of the BJP’s parliamentarian Ramesh Bidhuri’s communal slurs against him in parliament.
The BSP supremo, however, irked Muslims by expelling their favourite parliamentarian Ali from the party for opposing the expulsion of Trinamool Congress MP Mahua Moitra from parliament. Ali and Siddiqui are both now in Congress, and Ali is again going to contest the election from the Amroha seat on the Congress ticket.
Muslim disaffection for the BSP has been more palpable since the party announced its intention to go solo in the general election and brushed off speculation about joining the INDIA alliance.
Husain Afsar, editor of the Urdu Daily newspaper, opined that Mayawati has no sympathy for Muslims, but she has fielded some Muslim candidates to divide Muslim votes by creating confusion in the community. “BSP’s decision would pave the way for communal forces to retain power,” Afsar added.
‘Dalits let down too’
Afsar noted that Mayawati has not been working on the ground, which has led to annoyance among Dalits, Muslims, and the BSP’s traditional voters. According to Afsar, BSP leaders have focused more on questioning the opposition rather than the BJP in recent years.
Afsar also believes that Mayawati’s approach has upset Dalits too, as they feel that the BSP has not been vocal enough in opposing the ruling dispensation.
In UP, the Dalit population is nearly 21-22%. In the 2022 assembly elections, Mayawati’s BSP got only 12.88% of the votes and won only one assembly seat.
Since Mayawati went out of power from UP in 2012, she has rarely appeared in public, and not made any significant efforts to expand the Bahujan movement or protest against Dalit atrocities.
This behaviour could lead voters to back Dalit candidates of the INDIA alliance at the cost of BSP’s, political analyst Zaigham Murtuza of Amroha says.
“Mayawati is persistently losing her grip over her core Dalit vote bank. Non-Jatavs are almost confined to the BJP and the Samajwadi Party alone. Only Jatavs are still intact in her party…and yet, after every debacle, she has blamed Muslims for her defeat. Have Muslims taken any oaths to vote for her party?” Murtuza asked.
Also read: In West UP’s Caste Chessboard, Opposition Drops Muslims, Fields More Upper Castes
Politics at play
Aadil Faraz of Saharanpur says Mayawati also chose to be tight-lipped when Muslims were facing police crackdowns during the anti-Citizenship Amendment Act protests, and whenever Hindu fanatic groups lynched Muslims in different parts of the country.
However, not everyone is convinced that Mayawati’s intentions are eyewash.
Commenting on the candidature of Muslims on the BSP ticket, senior lawyer Asad Hayat says that this time Muslims are not in a dilemma like they were in the 2017 assembly election. “Mayawati’s intent is crystal clear: she wants to help the BJP to protect herself from the central agencies,” he said, adding that her party was reduced to a proxy role.
Lawyer Saqib Siddiqi believes that the BSP fielded Muslim candidates only in those constituencies where INDIA Alliance candidates are weak. Siddiqi argued that Imran Masood joined and left several parties like the SP and BSP and returned to his old shelter Congress, losing credibility.
Danish Ali won the last general election on a BSP ticket, but this time he is running on a Congress ticket, so it is uncertain if Dalits will support him. “So Mayawati wants to take advantage of the weakness of the INDIA alliance. She is not betraying Muslims,” says Siddiqi.
The BSP won its last assembly election in 2007, and after that, lost three assembly elections in 2012, 2017, and 2022. Mayawati’s party won 21 seats in the general election in 2009, and did not get a single seat in the 2014 general election. In the general election of 2019, Mayawati joined hands with its arch-rival, the SP, and bagged 10 seats in the state.
