Narendra Modi and Amit Shah will hopefully learn some lessons from the drastic falls in seats in the 2024, though in his address to his party on Tuesday, he tried to sound an upbeat tone, saying the ‘Janata Janardhan’ had given him an unprecedented third consecutive term. Humility and self-doubt are not in his DNA.
Yet, it is humility he will have to learn if he wishes to run a coalition government, a first in his political career, that is assuming he becomes the prime minister. Modi has never lost an election. He has led his party to bigger victories than before. And this has given him a larger-than-life persona among his party members and millions of devotees. With the help of a supplicant media and tremendous money power, he has remained unquestioned by his echo chamber.
Illustration: Pariplab Chakraborty
But the results of the 2024 polls have not just dented Modi’s vote-catching image, it will mean that he will have to learn to get along with his allies, especially Chandrababu Naidu, Nitish Kumar and even Eknath Shinde. For a person like Narendra Modi, that’s not going to be an easy task.
Cast your mind back to 1999, when Atal Bihari Vajpayee lost a no-confidence motion in parliament by only one vote. That was because the imperious Jayalalithaa walked out of his National Democratic Alliance government, making Vajpayee the only prime minister to lost a no-confidence vote.
Vajpayee came back in the next elections, still smiling and still running another coalition government and lasted the full term. It was his accommodative personality that helped him survive.
Manmohan Singh too ran two United Progressive Alliance governments from 2004 to 2014, managing all the disparate coalition partners (except a recalcitrant CPI(M) which walked out in 2009).
Narendra Modi will now have to bank heavily on his coalition partners, especially the Telugu Desam Party in Andhra Pradesh and Janata Dal (United) in Bihar. Both are led by leaders who have their own ambitions. Chandrababu Naidu has made all the right noises after the elections, saying he stands firmly with the BJP, but he will want the BJP’s full support in the the next elections in the state to defeat his sworn enemy, Jaganmohan Reddy.
While Naidu stands firmly with the BJP, he can be a tough customer. In 2018, Naidu walked out of the NDA and gave a no-confidence motion against the Modi government for its failure to grant special status to Andhra Pradesh. There is little doubt that his list of demands on the NDA government will only grow.
The capricious Nitish Kumar will be even more difficult to handle. His tendency to switch sides is well known, and he is driven more by personal ambition than his love for his state. Barely three months ago, after he had (once more) defected to the NDA, he evoked derisive laughter from Narendra Modi when he said he would never now shift loyalties.
It was widely assumed that the voters would punish Kumar in the current elections, but his party has won 12 seats in Bihar, the same as the BJP, and Modi would want to keep him happy.
But what will make Nitish Kumar happy? He has big dreams and ambitions at the centre. Could he see himself as a potential prime minister? It is an audacious idea, but with Nitish Kumar, one never knows. He is not going to be an easy man to handle.
In any case, the allies, especially Naidu and Kumar, will want to curb some of Modi’s policies. They will not want to give him unbridled support on aggressive Hindutva, anti-minority rhetoric and a free-for-all in his support to his favourite tycoons, especially Gautam Adani, all hallmarks of his political career. They will want more investment in the social sector, since they are closer to the ground than he is. There could be much more.
Narendra Modi works best when he is unhampered by people telling him what to say and what to do. He will have to listen, and even implement what they tell him. That will mean a more collegial approach, of give and take, both alien concepts to him. Unlike his BJP colleagues, who may mutter under their breath but lump whatever he said and did, his allies will not remain silent. He can no longer say, “Modi ki guarantee’ or ‘Modi sarkar‘ – now it will be an NDA sarkar.
This will require not just tactical management or trying to be clever by half. Modi, if he wants to run a government for five years with the cooperation of his allies – and with an aggressive opposition to deal with – will have to learn to grin and bear it and do it with humility. It will be a tall order.
Read all of The Wire’s reporting on and analysis of the 2024 election results here.
