New Delhi: As the multi-phase polling heads to its end, the electoral rhetoric usually starts drying up, and parties or alliances gradually turn their attention towards the post-poll scenario. It is generally observed that the tone and tenor of the top leaders – not the candidates in the fray – witness some shift from the initial stage of campaigning. Often, it is the demand of the situation that prompts them to change their tune.
However, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his team are exceptions.
Without worrying about the emergence of any adverse situation after June 4, they are busy turning away those leaders who, until a couple of months ago, were considered friendly to them. This misplaced aggression may cost the BJP dearly.
Also read: Should BJP Face Defeat in Lok Sabha Polls, Can We Expect Peaceful Transfer of Power?
The Odisha example
Just 11 days before the announcement of the polling dates by the Election Commission of India, the prime minister shared the dais with Odisha chief minister Naveen Patnaik on March 5 and showered praise on him. Soon, news appeared in the media that the Bharatiya Janata Party and Biju Janata Dal might jointly contest the election in the state.
As March 5 was the 108th birth anniversary of Biju Patnaik, speculations soon began circulating that Naveen’s father might also be conferred the Bharat Ratna.
However, within a fortnight, the whole scenario changed, and the two parties decided to go separate ways. That was not enough; Modi started targeting the Odisha chief minister.
Gradually, his attacks on Patnaik became very aggressive. The prime minister even went to the extent of asking him to name the districts and their capitals (when it actually should have been headquarters) of Odisha.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi with Odisha chief minister Naveen Patnaik in Jajpur on March 5, 2024. Photo: X/@Naveen_Odisha
Similarly, during the election campaign, the prime minister and his cabinet colleagues turned up the heat on Andhra Pradesh chief minister Jagan Mohan Reddy. Criticising political rivals in the electoral race is one thing, but making the battle personal, hitting below the belt, and calling the same gentlemen ‘corrupt’ without substantiating the charge exposes the immaturity of the saffron party bigwigs.
Given the fact that both the Biju Janata Dal and the YSR Congress have bailed out the government on several occasions in the Rajya Sabha, where the BJP lacks a majority, it is inappropriate to antagonise the leaders of both these parties. There should have been a distinction between the tone and tenor of the attack on INDIA constituents and the parties who are not part of this combination.
Dreaded terrorist
It is also a fact that Jagan Mohan Reddy has never used the expression “dreaded terrorist” for Prime Minister Modi as Telugu Desam Party supremo Chandrababu Naidu did during the 2019 election campaign. Naidu was then the chief minister of Andhra Pradesh. Yet today, Modi has joined hands with him and Pawan Kalyan of Jana Sena.
In the case of a hung parliament, the support of the BJD and YSR Congress may be very crucial. By going all out against them for not a very strong reason, Modi has shot himself in the foot.
In any emerging situation, Patnaik may be more comfortable in dealing with the INDIA bloc. After all, he would not be feeling threatened by the Congress. In contrast, the BJP’s rise in Odisha is likely to pose a big challenge for the BJD.
In Andhra Pradesh, the Congress is weak as well. But the situation is somewhat different there as Jagan Mohan’s sister Sharmila is leading the Congress battle. Still the YSR Congress may not support any alliance government in which the Telugu Desam Party is a constituent.
And if YSR Congress really agrees to back the Modi-led team, then TDP would ditch the National Democratic Alliance and join INDIA.
After all, TDP had contested the 2018 Telangana election in alliance with the Congress and Left parties.
There will always be an excuse for it: Modi has in the last 10 years not given the Special Category Status to Andhra Pradesh, which the Congress has promised.
What the over-confident BJP top brass is not understanding is that once it fails to reach the 272-mark, its bargaining position would come down drastically.
The parties on the fence, such as the BJD and YSR Congress, may remain neutral (even if they do not support INDIA from outside) and not associate themselves with the saffron party. Patnaik and Jagan Mohan may have been keeping Modi in good humour in the past because he is in power and can use central agencies against them.
Also read: Modi’s Anti-politics Tirade Is Preparing the Ground for an Authoritarian Switch-Over
Post-poll plan
Political parties start making post-poll plans before the results are out. One starts getting an inkling by the end of the final phase of the election. That is one of the reasons why Rashtriya Janata Dal leader Tejashwi Prasad Yadav is not going hammer and tongs against Nitish Kumar.
The RJD may have closed the door on his re-entry, but it has left a window open for the Janata Dal (United) for any eventuality. This is in total contrast to what Modi is doing.
In the Karnataka Assembly election of May 2018 and Goa in March 2017, the Congress and the BJP went into a damage control exercise even before the final results were out.
The Congress was quick to announce its support to Janata Dal (Secular) leader H.D. Kumaraswamy (though it won only 36 seats) to form the government, leaving the biggest party in the assembly, the BJP, high and dry.
In doing so, it exacted revenge on the BJP for what it did in Goa a year earlier.
Even if Modi is confident about his comfortable victory where no outside supporters are required, it is politically not wise to vehemently attack political rivals who are in the category of frenemies.
