Modi’s Bihar Play: Why the Caste Census Might Backfire

Eight days after the Pahalgam terror attack, when the nation, opposition and even Bharatiya Janata Party cadres expected decisive action against the terrorists involved, the Narendra Modi government announced it would conduct a caste census. This sudden decision left the country puzzled. Why did the Cabinet Committee on Political Affairs (CCPA), chaired by the prime minister, meet so urgently?

Of course, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has made the caste census a cornerstone of his political agenda, aligning with regional parties like the Samajwadi Party and Rashtriya Janata Dal, which have demanded it for decades. Gandhi has amplified this demand nationally and internationally, syncing Congress’s agenda with the socialist parties’ focus on social justice.

However, the Sangh parivar, including Modi, Union home minister Amit Shah and Uttar Pradesh chief minister Adityanath, had vehemently opposed the caste census. When the Nitish Kumar government, supported by Tejashwi Yadav and the Congress, conducted a caste survey in Bihar in 2023, Modi called it a “paap (sin) of dividing Hindu society on caste lines”. BJP-backed lawyers challenged the survey in the high court and Supreme Court, and are also opposing Bihar’s decision to raise the quota for marginalised sections to 65% in government jobs.

Also read: From ‘Urban Naxal’ to ‘Historic Decision’: BJP's U-Turn on Caste Census

The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) has repeatedly called for reconsidering caste-based reservations. Modi, Shah and Adityanath led the Sangh parivar in condemning Gandhi, Akhilesh Yadav, Lalu Prasad Yadav and Tejashwi Yadav for spreading “jativad ka jahar (poison of casteism)” during the 2024 Lok Sabha and subsequent assembly campaigns.

Moreover, the Congress-led INDIA alliance condemned the Pahalgam attack and urged Modi to act against terrorism and Pakistan’s role in it. For perhaps the first time in three decades, the people of Jammu and Kashmir stood united in outrage, supporting the victims. The opposition had even paused its caste census demand, recognising the government’s focus on the terrorist threat.

Political observers and opposition leaders this writer spoke to suggest Modi’s caste census announcement is a strategic move to win Bihar’s elections. “After the Pahalgam attack, Modi chose election-bound Bihar to address the tragedy instead of visiting the site to meet security forces, victims and locals. He aimed to capitalise on the tragedy, as he often does. But sensing that tough talk on terrorism might not yield electoral gains in Bihar, he fears losing the state. His sudden U-turn on the caste census is a calculated move,” said Shivanand Tiwary, RJD’s national vice president and veteran socialist leader.

Electoral impact

The sudden announcement has left BJP cadres and the opposition in Bihar stunned. Hindutva supporters, who were framing the attack in communal terms, linking it to Muslims and accusing the opposition of fuelling caste divisions and appearing pro-Pakistan, are now disoriented. The opposition, too, is unsure how to counter the BJP, which has made Bihar a “do-or-die” battle, especially as chief minister Nitish Kumar’s influence wanes.

It’s too early to predict the caste census decision’s impact on Bihar’s elections, still six months away. However, this marks the first time in over a decade as prime minister that Modi has adopted the opposition’s agenda.

The caste census aims to ensure proportionate representation for marginalised communities in jobs and governance. The BJP, by its ideological nature, has historically opposed social justice politics, which emphasises caste-based participation. When V.P. Singh, backed by Janata Parivar parties like Lalu’s and Mulayam’s, implemented the Mandal Commission’s 27% OBC quota in 1990, BJP leader L.K. Advani launched the Ram Rath Yatra, sparking the “Mandal vs Kamandal” divide.

Also read: A Look Back at India’s Caste Census Journey

For 34 years, the BJP has used religious themes – Rama, Ayodhya, Mathura, Kashi, Sambhal, Aurangzeb, Babar – to counter social justice parties. North Indian regional parties like SP and RJD have grown stronger, with the Congress, once critical of their “casteist” politics, now aligning with social justice under Rahul Gandhi’s leadership.

The Congress-SP alliance, propelled by Akhilesh Yadav’s “Pichhara, Alpsankhyak, Adivasi (PDA)” framework for social justice, succeeded in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls in Uttar Pradesh, winning 43 seats against BJP’s 33, reducing the BJP to a minority with 243 seats. While the BJP performed well in Haryana and Maharashtra assembly polls, allegations of “manipulations and malpractices” have clouded those victories.

Modi’s gamble on the caste census may backfire in the long run. The BJP lacks the ideology and structure to position itself as a champion of social justice, unlike Congress and regional parties, which are ideologically and structurally committed to it.

Nalin Verma is a senior journalist, author and media educator.

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