Barely a month has passed since Narendra Modi was sworn in for his ‘historic’ third term as the Prime Minister of India but the much-trumpeted organisational discipline of the BJP under his leadership has already started unraveling. Modi’s attempt to create an optical illusion of invincibility appears to be getting undone by his own centralising impulses.
Ever since the BJP fell short of a majority in the Lok Sabha, its rank and file – for a change – have not hesitated in putting forth their honest opinions about the party’s shortcomings in the election campaign. More importantly, BJP leaders in prominent states like Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra have advanced critical arguments that directly or indirectly hit at the ‘Brand Modi’ core of the BJP’s electoral strategy.
It is in Uttar Pradesh – the stronghold which turned out to be the reason for the BJP’s fall – where the intense internal squabbles are the sharpest. Soon after the opposition front staged a dramatic comeback in India’s most-populous state, Chief Minister Adityanath cited “overconfidence” for the party’s electoral reverses, a not-so-indirect aim at Narendra Modi and Amit Shah who pushed the “400 paar (beyond 400)” slogan to no end. Ahead of the polls, the duo overrode Adityanath in selecting candidates in the state, a majority of whom lost. His remark came as multiple commentators equated the BJP’s defeat in UP to a failing Hindutva, leading many to believe that the chief minister was defending the Sangh parivar’s ultimate ideological goal.
However, his deputy Keshav Prasad Maurya, also seen as Amit Shah’s confidante, hit back by indirectly accusing the CM of undermining party workers and the organisation, and instead putting all faith in the state government’s actions.
The tension seen in the UP unit of the BJP is also reflected elsewhere. In Rajasthan, where the BJP’s tally came down to 14 from 25 in 2019, various BJP leaders pointed at the weak leadership of the Brahmin chief minister Bhajan Lal Sharma, while in Maharashtra, another state where the BJP-led NDA came down dramatically from 2019, BJP leaders showed discomfort with Devendra Fadnavis, also a Brahmin, and his failure to consolidate Other Backward Classes’ and Dalit votes.
Fadnavis offered to resign but pulled back after the party’s central leadership asked him to “reconsider”. Yet, OBC allies like Chhagan Bhujbal have not hesitated to speak against the BJP and Eknath Shinde’s government for sending mixed messages to the OBCs. Speculation is also rife that many who had broken ranks with Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar, including deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar, could soon exit the NDA.
Also read: Why Maharashtra Signals a Decline of the Modi-Shah Brand of Politics
The BJP’s allies, too, have not hesitated to speak their mind. OBC leader Anupriya Patel of Apna Dal (Soneylal) wrote a letter to Adityanath saying that reserved government jobs for Dalits and OBCs were being allotted to general category applicants under his monitoring. NISHAD party’s leader Sanjay Nishad, on the other hand, launched a scathing attack against Adityanath’s “bulldozer model”, saying that if one “uproots the poor, they will uproot us in politics.”
As the rumblings are only likely to escalate in the days to come, one can see a clear dissent unfolding against the party’s state leadership, all of which is aimed indirectly at the Modi-Shah duo. Fadnavis has been the most-trusted person for the central leadership for years now. In Rajasthan, Sharma was at best a popular legislator until he was surprisingly chosen over other top BJP leaders of the state as chief minister. Although Madhya Pradesh’s Mohan Yadav, another out-of-the-blue choice for the chief minister’s position, isn’t currently facing the brunt as the BJP improved its performance in Madhya Pradesh, many senior party leaders in the state unit are quietly waiting for their turn to fire a salvo at the central leadership.
The turn of events is a reminder of similar tensions after the Modi-Shah duo chose chief ministers like Raghubar Das or Manohar Lal Khattar. However, as the BJP commanded formidable electoral strength at the time, that dissension went unnoticed. The tide appears to be turning now, with BJP leaders unhesitatingly putting forth their criticisms when the Modi-Shah duo is at its weakest.
The mess in the BJP could get messier as an organised campaign against Adityanath within the BJP is unfolding at the moment. There is speculation that the UP CM, known more as an upper caste Thakur leader in the state, could be made the scapegoat for the party’s debilitating losses in the state. Modi and Shah are looking at every opportunity to ingratiate themselves with the resentful OBCs and Dalits, and sacking Adityanath may be a convenient option.
Adityanath is a leader in his own right and commands a huge following of his own but his autonomy was never liked by Modi and Shah, who have displayed their preference for pawns rather than mass leaders. By targeting Adityanath, the central leadership may risk defacing “Brand Modi” from within at a time when it is already facing sharp attacks, both in the form of mockery and serious criticism, from the opposition led by Rahul Gandhi.
As it is, the Modi-Shah duo has been compelled to keep its ears to the ground, and it is believed that they will announce a number of welfare measures for the poor in the upcoming budget. The Maharashtra government has already declared an allowance for jobless youth, while the UP government for the first time has reversed some of its own harsh decisions in the face of protests. Such has been the internal resistance to the autocratic decisions made by Modi and Shah that they have been unable to appoint a party president despite the fact that J.P. Nadda’s tenure ended a while ago.
By choosing a supplicant president, Modi would look to assert his supremacy in the party once again, but by doing so he will also likely fuel resentment. The writing on the wall is clear. Modi-Shah’s much-touted “Chanakya neeti (political thinking like Chanakya)” is straightening out in front of the public. Given their personalities, they are unlikely to take these attacks, both from within and outside, lying down. However, a wrong move could push them further down the abyss that they themselves have created in pursuit of taking absolute control of the party.
This piece was first published on The India Cable – a premium newsletter from The Wire & Galileo Ideas – and has been updated and republished here. To subscribe to The India Cable, click here.
