The display of bonhomie by Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar and the leader of opposition Tejashwi Prasad Yadav – whom the former had several times publicly called his successor – in Raj Bhawan on January 2 on the occasion of the swearing-in ceremony of the new Bihar governor, Arif Mohammad Khan, is perhaps a pointer to the fact that something unusual is in the offing.
The timing of this gesture is significant because just a day ago, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) chief Lalu Prasad Yadav hinted that the door for Nitish is still open. This statement came a couple of weeks after his son Tejashwi told mediapersons that the door is closed for ‘chacha’ (uncle).
Still, given the more than 50-year-long relationship between Lalu and Nitish is so complex and filled with love and hate, nothing can be ruled out.
No, this does not mean that the RJD and Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)) are joining hands again. On January 4, while addressing a meeting during his Pragati Yatra in Gopalganj, the chief minister once again clarified that he had made the mistake of forming government with RJD twice and is not going to repeat it.
However, what he left unsaid is more important.
A hand on the shoulder
Politicians like Nitish Kumar are known for sending subtle messages. The way he put his hand on the shoulder of Tejashwi when the latter said namaste with folded hands certainly sent mixed signals. Nitish could have easily avoided this face-to-face public interaction. Yet, he did so consciously. And Tejashwi reciprocated.
Political commentators are interpreting this development in different ways, though it is also true that reading Nitish’s mind, especially when he is not in the best of mental health, is not an easy job.
Yes, the JD(U) supremo wants to send the message loud and clear to the BJP leaders and bigwigs that there is a limit to arm-twisting and that Bihar is not Maharashtra.
Also read: How Nitish Kumar Has Played His Part in the Modi Government’s Policy Retreats
Though the state election is about 10 months from now, the JD(U) is seeking its own pound of flesh – that under no circumstances is the party going to contest less than 122 seats in the polls to the 243-member Assembly. This was the number of seats on which JD(U) fought in 2020, although it is a separate matter that it could win only 43 of them.
However, the way the party bounced back in the last year’s Lok Sabha election winning 12 seats – the same as the BJP – has certainly increased its bargaining position.
BJP’s problem
The problem with the BJP in Bihar is that although it is a bigger party, and may once again win more seats than JD(U), it has no state leader here of the stature of Devendra Fadnavis in Maharashtra. Nitish Kumar is no Eknath Shinde either, although the Shinde faction of Shiv Sena has performed better in the recent Maharashtra assembly election than JD(U) did in the 2020 Bihar election.
Nitish has been the chief minister of Bihar for two decades – barring only nine months in between – so he can not be taken lightly. At the same time, the support of 12 MPs is very important for the Modi government. Yet, the over-zealous BJP leaders can go to any extent.
They are well aware about Nitish’s health. The Bihar CM is often reminded that during the 2020 election campaign, Nitish had declared that this would be his last innings. The time is ripe for him to retire.
Also read: Why a Silent Nitish Kumar is a Proverbial Burden on Bihar
Meanwhile, the BJP top brass are confident that without Nitish, there is nothing in the JD(U) and the 12 MPs from JD(U) can be won over any time by them.
If in such a scenario, the JD(U) fails to win a substantial number of seats – that is, even less than 43 – the BJP would certainly urge Nitish to step down. The party may take help of some JD(U) leaders close to BJP – and there are many – to persuade Nitish to give up the claim and accept a different offer.
But Nitish is Nitish and in such a scenario, he may once again join hands with the RJD, Congress and Left parties. He might then say that he has not deserted the BJP, rather the latter has betrayed him.
Nitish’s gameplan
Nitish is not much bothered about the 12 MPs of his party. If really pushed against the wall in a post-poll scenario in November 2025, he may even declare that he would back Tejashwi as the chief minister.
The only BJP leader of Bihar with whom he had a good equation was his former deputy, Sushil Kumar Modi. But ever since his death on May 13, 2024, there is nobody with whom Nitish can even sit and talk. He has not forgotten the verbal abuses hurled by BJP leaders at him in the past, like deputy chief ministers Samrat Chaudhary and Vijay Kumar Sinha. Even today, his equation with them is not good.
Nitish’s motive is clear: he wants to be the chief minister of JD(U)-BJP alliance and he would never allow any Bihar BJP leader to emerge as the chief ministerial face of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) till he is alive.
In the autumn of his political career, he may not want to jeopardise his relationship with Lalu. He may prefer to hand over the baton to young Tejashwi than any saffron party leader.
When Tejashwi was his deputy, Nitish had declared on several occasions publicly that the former was his successor.
Interestingly, on December 13, 2022, he had said that in 2025, Tejashwi would be leading their Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) as he wanted to retire from politics. Many in the JD(U), especially the upper caste leaders, did not take this statement positively. It is another thing that Nitish was, in a way, compelled by the circumstances created by the BJP to crossover and return to the NDA fold in January 2024.
Needless to say, Nitish’s relationship with the saffron brigade is more political than personal. In the case of Lalu, it is much the other way round.
