Bihar has always been at the centre of Indian politics, contributing some of the most powerful national leaders in the last few decades. As the saying goes, there is one thing that comes naturally to the people of Pataliputra – politics.
The art of political warfare has been perfected by many here and over the last two decades, we have seen the most flexible, sharp and ingenious political moves from the Janata Dal (United) [JD(U)] and Nitish Kumar to retain power. This led to the creation of the magic formula of Bihar politics – governments change, alliances change, but Nitish remains.
But this time around, was Kumar parting ways with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) a politically calculated move to stay in power? Or was it a last shot at survival?
Bihar today: when and why?
The 2020 Bihar assembly election result was the biggest shock for Kumar. The JD(U), in its prime in 2010, was able to garner a 23% vote share in the state. But come 2020, the party’s vote share plummeted to 15.8%. The JD(U) was the biggest loser seat-wise as well, as it came down from 71 seats to 43, making it only the third largest party in the state, exactly where the BJP was in the previous election.
The year 2020 was also when the BJP played the ‘Paswan card’ well against the JD(U) and ensured the latter’s defeat in over 20 seats. What happened to the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) post-2020 also serves as a political lesson that the BJP’s allies should be wary of.
The political insult of once being the commander and then having to play second fiddle had bothered the JD(U) and Kumar and the political assessment that going forward with the alliance would completely eradicate them in 2025 was quite valid. To be honest, what history tells us is that the BJP eats into their allies – the Shiv Sena is only the latest example, not the last.
Also read: Why Nitish Kumar Dumped BJP and What It Means for Opposition Parties
‘Aaya Ram, gaya Ram’
Kumar has been the modern-day embodiment of the political idiom, ‘Aaya Ram, gaya Ram’. The last three times were about keeping the throne, but this time is about keeping the palace intact.
The BJP’s second phase of its expansion plan – kick-started post the national executive meeting in Hyderabad –is focused on weakening the already weak opposition. The effects of this we have already seen in Maharashtra and Goa, and will soon be seen in Gujarat as well.
For Nitish, it was not only about the threat of the BJP infiltrating his party through R.C.P. Singh, even though that’s the public narrative cited, but it’s more about how the BJP has been infiltrating the JD(U)’s vote bank across the state which, in a way, is not tagged to any specific community. It is more about how Kumar’s space in the households of rural Bihar is being replaced by the image of Narendra Damodardas Modi as a ‘saviour’; an even scarier proposition for Kumar and the JD(U).
The second phase of the BJP’s expansion plan is not just focused on capturing power, but on sustaining it; to be unchallenged in the world’s largest democracy.
Alliance with the BJP – a deal with the devil
Political alliances with the BJP have proven detrimental to many of its past allies, from the Shiv Sena to the LJP, and to the AIADMK – the list is quite long. Everyone talks about the Shiv Sena’s betrayal in 2019, but no one seems to remember how the Sena had shrunk under the National Democratic Alliance (NDA); how the BJP has encroached into Sena strongholds and eaten into their target voter groups.
Similarly in Bihar today, we are seeing the latest iteration of this exercise. It was the LJP first and the JD(U) second, but the important question here is: will another Maharashtra happen in Bihar?
The answer is that it’s unlikely. Although Kumar may have saved his throne for the time being and Tejaswi Yadav may have gotten his “Yuvraj” crown, there is a major political aspect they are missing out on. They just made the BJP the primary opposition in the state. For the party that became the ‘big brother’ in the NDA alliance for the first time in 2020, there can be no better political opportunity.
RJD leader Tejaswi Yadav greets his supporters outside Raj Bhavan after being sworn in as deputy chief minister. Photo: PTI.
For the next three years, the BJP is the sole alternative for the people of Bihar and the much-criticised political leadership of Bihar, which has been responsible for its lack of development, have all come together under one banner. Now ask yourself this question again: did Kumar outwit the BJP or did the BJP just get its best political opportunity to finally capture Pataliputra?
Also read: Developments in Bihar Have Made Opposition Politics a Lot More Interesting
What lies ahead for Kumar?
The road ahead for Kumar will definitely be tricky, as the big brother in the alliance, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) will resort to its form of governance and the ‘golden hat’ of solutions will slowly become an administrative burden.
The logical option for the BJP is to wait and watch, let things take their natural course and, in a way, get public sympathy for being the “betrayed ones”. The BJP’s social media wing is more than capable of generating that feeling and portraying Kumar and the JD(U) as power-hungry opportunists. Who can do it better than the BJP anyway?
The BJP will definitely want to pull off another Shiv Sena-esque coup and they would have already activated a plan involving bargaining with, purchasing of and threatening legislators across the state. If there is any lesson to be learned from Maharashtra, it is that patience and political will is a virtue that you need to admire about the BJP and they will hit you when you least expect it; when they need that political knockdown very badly.
Come 2024, Bihar will be an exciting battle and if history is any indication, it’s Kumar’s last shot at survival.
Subrahmanyan T.D. is national head, Strategy and Research, I-PAC.