Chandigarh: As the alliance talks initiated with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) failed, the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) will fight the Lok Sabha polls solo in Punjab. The recent farm protests and the Centre’s lack of intervention in the release of Bandi Sikhs are seen as the major reasons for the failure of the coalition discussions.
This became amply clear after BJP’s Punjab chief Sunil Jakhar announced on Tuesday, March 26 that his party will fight all 13 Lok Sabha seats in the state.
Even as top brass of BJP was confident of bringing Akalis — which once was its trusted ally — back in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) fold, the announcement hardly came as a surprise.
‘We do not engage in politics solely for votes. Parties from Delhi play vote politics, but for us, Punjab comes first,” SAD president Sukhbir Singh Badal said on the recent development.
Political analyst Pramod Kumar, who also heads Chandigarh-based Institute for Development and Communication, told The Wire that SAD wanted conditional alliance with the BJP with assurance to legal guarantee of MSP, which has been core issue of Punjab’s peasant currently protesting against the Narendra Modi government at the centre.
Besides, it also wanted the centre’s intervention in the release of Bandi Sikhs — a major issue among section of Sikhs in Punjab — who had completed their jail term (Bandi Sikhs is a term used for Sikh prisoners languishing in various jails in India for their involvement during militancy in Punjab), said Pramod.
But according to him, the BJP rather wanted unconditional seat adjustments for the coming election. Therefore, the alliance did not materialise.
Before understanding the political implication of the alliance talk failure, it is vital to know as to why these issues were important to SAD. The answer is closely knitted to the party’s core politics in Punjab, which revolved majorly around Sikh panth and state’s peasantry for decades.
However, several factors like sacrilege incidents and growing rural distress made the SAD lose its core base in 2017 assembly polls after running two successive governments in alliance with the BJP.
Further, the SAD faced another setback after three farm bills by its alliance partner BJP at the centre in 2020 turned into historic protest by farmers from Punjab and other states. Even though SAD officially broke off its old ties with the BJP over farm bills, the political dynamics changed in Punjab with the rise of Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in the state.
AAP harped on voters’ disenchantment against traditional parties and won a historic mandate in the 2022 assembly polls, with SAD reducing to just three assembly constituencies and BJP limiting to just two seats. The then incumbent Congress was equally hit.
Ahead of the general elections, while Congress and AAP formed their election strategies, many expected SAD and BJP to come together to weave their old rural-urban magic back.
Talks officially began between both the parties as union home minister Amit Shah said publically in the recent past. But the return of farm protests last month in February – this time with a fresh demand for MSP guarantee law – again created uneasiness in possible ties between SAD and BJP .
In its recent core committee meeting on March 22, SAD made its mandate clear by passing a resolution which urged the Modi government to honour its categorical written commitment for the release of Bandi Singhs who had completed their terms. The regional party also mentioned that it would continue to champion the cause of the farmers and farm labourers and said that all promises made to them must be fulfilled.A
It also stated that “it will never deviate from its historic role as a champion of the interests of Khalsa Panth, all minorities as well as all Punjabis.”
The implications in Lok Sabha polls
With SAD and BJP going solo, Punjab will witness four-cornered fight just like the 2022 assembly polls.
In such a situation, the election may likely remain a close fight as all the parties are working on different agendas.
SAD has already spelt out its focus on recovering its old core base as well as targeting the AAP government, claiming that Bhagwant Mann-led government was a complete disaster.
On the other hand, the ruling AAP is harping on its governance model including fulfilment of pre-election promises like free electricity and Mohalla clinics etc.
The BJP will have Modi to ride its election juggernaut in the state and hope to sway masses especially in urban areas on the name of Ram Mandir and promise of another stable government at the centre.
Like SAD, the Congress had relied on the anti-AAP agenda. But the grand old party now looks a bit in disarray ever since it joined hands with the AAP at the national level to prevent the NDA from coming to power for a third term.
Kumar told The Wire that the failure of alliance talks between SAD and BJP would lead to crowding of electoral space in Punjab.
He said the four-cornered contest will lead to division of votes. The AAP and the Congress may hope to be major beneficiaries of this influx while Akalis hope to secure seats on its renewed efforts to win back its old base.
“The BJP on the other hand is hopeful that it may turn out to be the accidental beneficiary of this flux,” Pramod added.
