Pappu’s shrewd. How did he lose? It has simply stunned political pundits and drawing room occupiers to watch the Original Pappu or Naveen Patnaik, throw away both the Parliament and assembly elections held a day ago. The just dethroned formidable chief minister of Odisha, who won every election since 2000, and ruled the state for an uninterrupted 24 years, was ousted by once friend and foe, the BJP, in a lacklustre contest on Patnaik’s side. The BJP swept the state bagging 20 of the 21 seats in the Lok Sabha poll (the Congress retained its lone seat of Koraput); in the assembly poll the BJP scooped 78 out of 147 seats, Patnaik’s Biju Janata Dal (BJD) had to be content with 51 seats, while the Congress got 14 assembly seats.
Illustration: Pariplab Chakraborty
Naveen Patnaik is no ‘Pappu’ of the jeering, contemptuous label the BJP tagged Congress heir Rahul Gandhi with, he was the Pappu of family and friends, a term of endearment given to him as the youngest of siblings, of the late author Gita Mehta and older brother Prem Patnaik, and was darling of glitterati salons from London to New York, apart from the swirl of salonistas in Delhi’s drawing rooms.
And, so, it was the same finesse and command of an accomplished society virtuoso that guided Patnaik’s political intuition and judgement as the chosen political heir of his father, the late Biju Patnaik. Naveen broke away from the Janata Dal, of which his father was an illustrious member, and formed the Biju Janata Dal in 1997; and even forged an alliance with the BJP to the horror of his father’s Janata Dal colleagues; and he has never looked back ever since. He became minister of steel and then mines in the Atal Behari Vajpayee government in 1999, and became chief minister for the first time in March 2000, which Patnaik won wresting power from the incumbent Congress.
Typically, the wannabe BJP was kept at arm’s distance in the state by an astute Patnaik through the first decade, after all, he didn’t want the BJP to take the place of a has-been Congress in Odisha, and despite the fact the Congress-led UPA came to power in 2004 after dislodging the Vajpayee government at the Centre, Patnaik kept equidistance from both parties. Patnaik took sides with the deftness of a society wizard – his fortunes were unaffected by the Vajpayee government’s downfall, he went on to win the assembly elections and got 12 MPs in 2004; but dumped the BJP in 2009, after Hindutva activists attacked and vandalised churches in Kandhamal, to keep his ‘secular’ image intact.
In 2014, the BJD swept the state with 20 out of 20 seats despite the Modi wave, and won an even bigger majority in the assembly to become CM again. The feat was repeated in 2019 too, but the BJD dropped from 20 seats to 12 in the Lok Sabha poll with a voracious BJP snapping at his heels, but won the majority to become CM again.
Also read: Decoding BJP’s Odisha Win: ‘Overconfident’ Naveen Patnaik, Modi’s Aggressive Campaigning
The Odisha supremo was guileful to keep the ambitious and marauding Modi government in favourable spirits – Patnaik has supported and helped the latter in several political crises in the last 10 years – from giving the numbers to pass contentious bills in Parliament like scrapping of Article 370, moving triple talaq, and passing of the Citizenship Amendment Bill; to even supporting BJP candidate and Railway Minister Ashwini Vasihnav for Rajya Sabha from Odisha with the requisite numbers which the Modi government was falling short of. To support the controversial Delhi Services Bill that would give the Modi government control of the state administration, which not surprisingly flies in the face of federal democracy of which Patnaik should also beware of – yet, the BJD went ahead; and also went against the no-confidence motion passed by the Opposition against the Modi government on the Manipur violence last year.
So, when did this fragile bonhomie and mutually beneficial liaison unravel? After all, the state also received generous grants from the Modi government which the BJP never let the people forget with their propaganda, even as Patnaik cleverly continued with his welfare schemes that stood him in good stead over his two-decade and more reign.
Did the succession question become the biggest concern for voters this time? After talks failed between the BJD and BJP for an alliance in both elections, an ambitious BJP saw a sliver of opportunity when it realised that Patnaik was depending heavily on the former bureaucrat cum political aide now, VK Pandian. It was not the first time that Patnaik chose a bureaucrat to be his confidant – in the early years, he made Pyari Mohan Mohapatra, another IAS officer and close aide of his father, for his administrative skills and to take care of party affairs.
Rising clout of V Karthikeyan Pandian: Most ministers and legislators queue up before him if they are to get an audience with the chief minister. Photo: Special arrangement
Modi launched an aggressive campaign where he not only intensified his attack on Pandian on how the “outsider” Tamil Nadu former bureaucrat had hijacked the state and made Patnaik captive; a charge that stuck with voters as Pandian was the only aide seen to accompany Patnaik in his campaign meetings which were anyway very few and far between – unlike the BJP which went all out to have hundreds of meetings from a combative Modi, to Union ministers to party heavyweights.
Worse, Modi didn’t restrain himself when he harped on Patnaik’s alleged ill health and alluded to the fact that it was being kept a secret.
While voters may have succumbed to the Modi propaganda as the results show, how could a seasoned and adroit politician like Patnaik let victory slip from his masterly grip? After all, to stay equidistant from two national but opposing parties and win five elections requires crackerjack skills. Even if the electoral landscape was looking uncertain, Patnaik could have appealed to voters by saying it was his last election, as a close former party parliamentarian said – and he could have got two bumper victories with one stroke – breaking the record of being the longest serving chief minister, and winning the hearts of his voters with sentiment and promise.
Instead, Patnaik handed over the state to the BJP on a silver tray.
