With the formation of his cabinet, Prime Minister Narendra Modi appears to have gone out of his way to indicate that this is a BJP government and that his allies, important though they may be for a party that needs them to cobble a majority, cannot and will not be accommodated at the high table.
Forget the ‘big’ ministries — defence, home, external affairs, finance — the allies have not even been given anything remotely high-profile. K. Rammanohar Naidu of the Telugu Desam Party is the new Civil Aviation Minister, but other allies get relatively obscure portfolios – a portfolio the party last held before it walked out of Modi 1.0, when its numbers were not needed the way they are now.
Two older partners, the (rump) Shiv Sena and NCP in Maharashtra, have been left out in the cold, causing much heartburn. Praful Patel of the NCP, who deserted his mentor Sharad Pawar, was offered a minister of state level job, which must have stung, because he had been a full minister in the Manmohan Singh government.
Interestingly, Maharashtra goes to the polls in a few months and if the Lok Sabha results are any indication, the BJP and its two allies are not likely to come back to power. So why this snub?
With this government, Modi has sought to convey that the elections were just a blip and that things are back to the way they were before the Lok Sabha elections. The poor performance of the BJP has been waved away and the media is chipping in with its constant invocation of Modi 3.0. There may be ritualistic mentions of NDA, but for all intents and purposes, this is a Modi sarkar. It will not be surprising if once again the larger than life image building begins, and all others are relegated into the background. The media will only focus on him and key BJP leaders, ignoring the other partners. Modi’s party colleagues understand how it works; his allies will also have to get used to this new culture.
Arguably the most significant repetition of the old guard is the continuation of Amit Shah in the home ministry. Shah, the closest confidant of Narendra Modi, will once again hold complete control of all the investigative and law and order agencies. If these agencies are once again set loose the way they were in the past few years, how will the allies react? It will be interesting to see if Modi and his team take the allies along on major decisions or ignore them.
Whatever he may wish, Modi is likely to find that he cannot ignore them. His bravado, of showing that it is business as usual stands on a weak foundation. The fact remains that the BJP has only 240 MPs and needs at least 32 more for a simple majority in Parliament. That by itself is hardly comforting, especially for Modi, who had 303 seats the last time. Atal Bihari Vajpayee became the first prime minister in India to lose a no-confidence motion in 1999. Modi couldn’t have forgotten that.
He thus cannot take the allies for granted. The bonhomie between the BJP and the supporting parties, especially Chandrababu Naidu and Nitish Kumar, can change at any moment. Kumar is known for walking out of political relationships and Naidu wouldn’t have forgotten that Modi had attacked him in the most vicious way in the past.
The BJP is bound to look around for more allies to ensure that it is safe, no matter what. The INDIA group is an obvious target. But even if a few parties change loyalties, it does not change the fundamental fact that the BJP has only 240 MPs; that number will always haunt Modi.
The only way to manage the situation and feel comforted is to understand Coalition Dharma. Take everyone along and make them feel part of the larger family, the NDA. Barely tolerating those whose support you need is no way forward. For Modi, whose credo is I, Me, Myself, this will require a complete overhaul of mindset, which will be very difficult indeed.
