Bengaluru: Karnataka is the only southern state where the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had managed to win a significant number of seats in the 2019 and 2014 Lok Sabha polls. But the Congress defeated it comprehensively to wrest power in the state just last year.
In fact, the saffron party’s blockbuster results in Karnataka along with some states in the cow belt alone had ensured that it crossed the majority mark in the 2019 elections. The dynamics this time, however, appear completely different – the heady mix of caste, legacy and prestige battles in the state might determine the final outcomes and eventually who takes the throne in Delhi.
The lone Congress MP from Karnataka – D.K. Suresh – brother of state deputy chief minister and Karnataka Pradesh Congress Committee (KPCC) president D.K. Shivakumar is contesting against Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP’s) Dr. C.N. Manjunath in Bengaluru Rural constituency. Manjunath, a renowned cardiologist is the brother-in-law of former chief minister and Janata Dal (Secular) [JD (S)] leader H.D. Kumaraswamy. This is the latest and perhaps a conclusive face-off between both the families whose rivalry in the electoral arena dates back to 1985.
Illustration: Pariplab Chakraborty
In 1985, Shivakumar contested against H.D. Deve Gowda in Sathanur assembly constituency and was defeated. Deve Gowda ‘deserted’ Sathanur since he was also elected from Holenarsipur seat. Next, Shivakumar won the by-election in Sathanur. In 1989, again there was a face-off between Shivakumar and the former prime minister and father of Kumaraswamy in Kanakapura Lok Sabha constituency (later morphed into Bengaluru Rural). Shivakumar lost this time again. However, Shivakumar defeated Kumaraswamy in Sathanur assembly polls in 1994.
In 2004 parliamentary elections, Deve Gowda came third in the Kanakapura constituency as Shivakumar and his brother plotted a Congress comeback by fielding journalist and research scholar Tejashwini Sreeramesh, who won by over 1 lakh votes. In the 2023 assembly elections, Kumaraswamy’s son and the heir apparent to the party, Nikhil Kumaraswamy, had to suffer a defeat in Ramanagara with a sizeable margin against the Congress candidate Iqbal Hussain, the protégé of Shivakumar.
Suresh’s victory in this election will undeniably cement Shivakumar’s rise as the preeminent leader of the Vokkaliga community and strengthen his claims to the chair of the chief minister.
Leaders face off
For the JD(S), having enjoyed the unequivocal support of the Vokkaliga community, it’s a race for survival after its dismal performance in the assembly elections, especially in the Old Mysuru region which has traditionally been the stronghold of the party. Interestingly, Kumaraswamy is contesting from Mandya constituency which is represented by an independent MP Sumalatha Ambareesh who has recently joined the BJP. The BJP has given this seat to JD(S) as a part of the larger game plan to checkmate the Congress in the Old Mysuru belt.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, Nikhil had to face a humiliating defeat against Sumalatha. To the Gowda family, a loss in Mandya which is their political home ground and centre of Vokkaliga politics, is still a bitter pill to swallow.
Kumaraswamy’s followers are convincing the voters that their leader’s victory is essential to keep the JD(S) alive which in turn is necessary to safeguard the interest of the Vokkaliga community. His ardent fans believe a win could earn him a central ministry and thus revive his flailing political career. Congress nominee Venkataramane Gowda, popularly known as ‘Star Chandru’ is putting up a spirited fight against the former chief minister.
“This is not the first time they (JDS) are aligning with a party. In 1989 it was said HD Deve Gowda was over, in 1999 also it was said he is over. In 2009 also when Gowda lost Kanakapura it was said he was over. In 2023 they said the same. But every time he (Deve Gowda) revived himself. That grit is there even in Kumaraswamy,” said Sugata Srinivasaraju, journalist, columnist and author of Furrows In A Field:The Unexplored Life of H.D. Deve Gowda.
Another major battleground is set in the Malnad region of Karnataka between two prominent BJP leaders. The saffron party has once again fielded the foremost Lingayat leader of the state and former chief minister B.S. Yediyurappa’s son and incumbent B.Y. Raghavendra from Shivamogga constituency.
K.S. Eshwarappa on the campaign trail. Photo: X/@ikseshwarappa
This has angered former deputy chief minister and BJP leader K.S. Eshwarappa who also belongs to Shivamogga and has jumped into the electoral race as an independent candidate with the stated goal to defeat Yediyurappa’s family. Eshwarappa, it is believed, at best could dent the chances of the BJP candidate and the unintended beneficiary of this prestige battle within the BJP could be the Congress candidate Geetha Shivarajkumar who is the daughter of former chief minister S.Bangarappa, sister of education minister Madhu Bangarappa and wife of Kannada actor Shivakumar.
The Bangarappas belong to the Eediga community which has a large presence in the Malnad region and their consolidation could have a slight potential to impact the electoral outcomes in favour of the Congress. Geetha contested the 2014 Lok Sabha elections in Shivamogga on a JD(S) ticket and lost to Yediyurappa.
In Davanagere, the Congress has fielded Prabha Mallikarjun, business tycoon and long-time Congress MLA Shamanur Shivashankarappa’s daughter-in-law and wife of minister of mines and geology and horticulture S.S. Mallikarjun while the BJP nominee is Gayathri Siddeshwara, wife of incumbent MP and former union minister G.M. Siddeshwara. This contest is also between two powerful Lingayat families who have been bitter political rivals and have dominated Davangere district politics over the last decades.
For chief minister Siddaramaiah, a crucial seat is in his home turf, Mysuru constituency where the BJP has fielded Yaduveer Krishnadatta Chamaraja Wadiyar, the great-grandson of Maharaja Jayachamarajendra Wadiyar and the Congress has given the ticket to Lakshman. The grand old party is banking upon the political machinations and popularity of the chief minister to thwart the BJP’s chances — which local political observers believe is ahead in the race in this particular constituency. A loss for the Congress party in this seat would directly have an impact on Siddaramaiah’s reputation and put a question mark on his chief ministership.
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All in the family
These high-profile seats aside, there are many pitched battles being fought for what is, eventually, dynastic succession. Both the Congress and the BJP have fielded candidates who are closely related – sons, daughters, wives, son in laws, daughter in laws, brothers, nephews – to prominent politicians. It is not just the victory of these candidates but the honour and legacy of their powerful relatives which is at stake in a majority of the constituencies. Out of 28 Lok Sabha seats in Karnataka, at least 12 BJP candidates and 15 Congress nominees are related to incumbent and former MLAs, MPs and ministers.
For instance, Radhakrishna Doddamani, son-in-law of party president Mallikarjun Kharge is contesting against BJP MP Umesh Jadhav in the Kalaburagi constituency and Samyukta Patil, daughter of textiles, sugarcane development and APMC minister Shivanand Patil is the Congress’s Bagalkot candidate, and Sowmya Reddy, daughter of transport minister Ramalinga Reddy is fielded by the party from Bangalore South against incumbent BJP MP Tejasvi Surya. This is a deliberate strategy by the Congress since the party is facing a fund crunch and relies on the heavyweights to strategise and invest resources in the respective seats where their relatives have been fielded.
The Deve Gowda family is contesting two out of the three seats conceded to the JD(S) by the BJP as part of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) – Prajwal Revanna from Hassan and Kumaraswamy from Mandya.
Prajwal Revanna. Photo: X/@iPrajwalRevanna
Prajwal won from the same seat in the last general election and is facing tough opposition from a section of BJP workers in Hassan. Congress nominee Shreyas Patel stands to benefit from this feud between JD(S) and BJP cadres.
As far as the BJP is concerned, to avoid anti-incumbency, a discernible plan has been put in place, which is to replace incumbent MPs in several constituencies with former ministers – such as former chief ministers Basavraj Bommai from Haveri and Jagadish Shettar from Belagavi (who has switched back to BJP from Congress) and former state ministers like B. Sriramulu from Bellari, K. Sudhakar from Chikkaballapur, V. Somanna from Tumkuru and Govind Karjol from Chitradurga. BJP has adopted this tactic because of the realisation that the elections in Karnataka are being fought on local issues and there’s no Modi wave unlike the two previous Lok Sabha polls.
Commenting on the historical trends in Karnataka elections, senior political columnist Rajashekar Hatagundi said, “The BJP has attempted to communalise Karnataka politics since the Babri Masjid demolition in 1992. They were successful to a large extent between 1999-2004 when they continuously raised issues like Baba Budan Giri, S.M. Krishna was the chief minister at that time. In 2004, the assembly and parliamentary elections were held together in Karnataka; for the first time, the BJP touched double digits in the state and performed better than the Congress in the Lok Sabha polls. But, JD (S) and Congress performed better than the BJP in assembly elections in the same year. The trend in Karnataka politics started changing from that point.”
In 2019, the BJP won 25 seats with a vote share of 51.2% in Karnataka – which was its best performance both in terms of number of seats and vote share – while the Congress party, JD(S) and Independent won one seat each. The saffron party won 17 and 19 seats in the 2014 and 2009 general elections, respectively. In 2004 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP won 18 seats while the Congress managed to win only eight and the JD (S) was victorious in two constituencies.
‘Natural transfer’
The JD(S)-BJP partnership was touted as a “natural alliance” by Kumaraswamy but whether there will be a “natural” transfer of votes between the parties remains to be seen.
“JD-BJP is a natural alliance because Deve Gowda’s life’s politics revolves around anti-Congressism though they (Congress and JDS) have been together at times, Congress supported Deve Gowda from outside during his prime ministership. I’m not discounting the fact that the BJP-JDS alliance might be better than the Congress-JDS alliance. It is a political alliance not to be mistaken with an ideological alliance. Most constituents of the INDIA alliance were NDA partners too,” Srinivasaraju said.
For the BJP or the NDA to surpass its record of the previous election, however, might be a tough task as the Congress government in the state is riding the popularity wave especially among the rural voters and women due to the five guarantees (campaign promises met by the Siddaramaiah government after coming to power).
“The Congress may win 10-12 seats this time in Karnataka. However, they can’t rely on guarantees alone and expect a substantial increase in their tally. The Congress strategists and candidates need to understand it,” Hatagundi said, “Voters have already taken the benefit of the guarantees. For the MP elections, the issues are different and BJP has created a narrative of desh bhakti (patriotism) which is working for them to an extent despite Siddaramaiah’s resounding popularity. The youth and upper caste voters seem to be with the BJP but they are unlikely to win as many seats as last time.”
Understandably, it’s a do or die situation for all the three parties. Now, how these prestige battles and legacy clashes play out and to what extent the Congress is able to claw back from its abysmal performance in the previous parliamentary polls could be the defining story of this election and what could stand in the way of a simple majority for the BJP.
