Badri Raina 
How consequential will the up coming Jammu and Kashmir assembly election be?
Clearly, should the ruling Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) pull off a stunning victory and form the government, alone or with some congenial allies, there will be no need to restore statehood, full or not, to the Union territory.
Since the BJP will be in the governing seat with a friendly governor firmly in place, it would be foolish to expect the arrangement to be disturbed in the larger political interest of the Hindutva right- wing.
And, perish the thought, should the old guard make a comeback: the very thought of returning statehood would be an ab initio nullity.
What might put the powers-that-be at mental and political ease is the reluctance the peace-loving Kashmiri masses have shown to trudge the street in pursuit of restoring democratic rights to themselves or to recuperate a cultural identity that, however deep or proud, stands for now squished into a nationalistic thepla.
The one factor that may cause some meaningful curiosity will pertain to how a revived and assertive Indian National Congress might play its federal cards.
Will it find itself in ‘fait accompli mode’ over the demand for the restoration of ‘special status’, or will it make bold to struggle with the regional parties for obtaining not just full statehood but also legislating measures that once again secure to the Kashmiri domiciles the right to free and assured education, to state-level jobs and to the ownership of land?
Failing such an agenda, the grand old party may be risking its credentials vis a vis Kashmiris for a long time to come.
It is well to recall that, after all, the accession of the erstwhile princely state to the dominion of India was primarily owing to the progressive and historic modus vivendi between an enlightened Muslim leadership in J&K and a triumphant Congress imbued with the ethical energy and emancipatory, secular momentum of the freedom struggle.
Let it not be forgotten that the Hindu Maharaja was most reluctant to throw his lot with India, coveting an “independent” status,” whereas Sheikh Mohammed Abdullah, a devout Muslim, saw it fit to reject sectarian appeal and join hands with a ‘Hindu-majority’ India.
That he was to be disillusioned in double quick time is of course the tragic part of the story of Jammu and Kashmir, but one from which sanguine lessons may be drawn, especially at this fraught hour in the life of Kashmiris.
Equally pressingly, there would be no greater nationalist folly than to take the knowledgeable and politically articulate Ladakhis for granted. Why they should be denied the right to elect an assembly to govern themselves – a right they enjoyed as part of an undivided state – is a question the BJP has no answer to.
Badri Raina taught at Delhi University.