Chandigarh: Aam Aadmi Party candidate Harmeet Singh Sandhu has won the Tarn Taran bypoll in Punjab by a margin of over 10,000 votes.

AAP retaining the seat – vacated after the death of AAP MLA Dr Kashmir Singh Sohal – may look routine on paper. But the story beneath the surface is far more layered.

For AAP, the victory is reassuring. Despite facing criticism on several fronts, the party still managed to secure a election win.

But it was not as comfortable as it sounds. The shakiness in early counting rounds on Friday, November 14, served as a reminder that the party can no longer take for granted the sweeping electoral victory in the 2022 assembly polls.

With fresh assembly polls due in February 2027, it must buckle – especially when the bypoll verdict has sent a strong signal on the revival of Punjab's oldest regional force, the Shiromani Akali Dal.

SAD's revival?

The Akali Dal may not have won the election, but it gave a tough fight to the ruling AAP and sent a clear message that the party is clawing back relevance after years of existential crisis.

Akali Dal candidate Sukhwinder Kaur Randhawa jumped ahead in initial rounds of counting — enough to jolt AAP leaders in the state.

But as the day progressed and more EVMs were opened for counting, the Akali Dal candidate had fallen short and finished second.

The Akali Dal, many believe, had a chance of winning the seat. But jailed MP Amritpal Singh-supported candidate Mandeep Khalsa dented its chances after he secured over 18,000 votes, much more than the winning margin of the AAP candidate.

Talking to The Wire, political analyst Pramod Kumar said that the bypoll has sent a clear message that the Akali Dal is no longer confined to the fringes of Punjab politics.

He said the bypoll was fought on an assembly seat known as the heart of Sikh religious politics.

The Akalis decent performance showed that they are finding some resonance again among their traditional vote bank, he added.

Analysts also point out that the Akali Dal's renewed traction is not accidental. The party’s proactive role during the recent Punjab floods, its "Punjab First” narrative, repositioning the party as the defender of Punjab's federal rights and regional identity, and publicly owning past mistakes are some of the factors helping the party reconnect with the masses.

Political analyst Harjeshwar told The Wire that AAP’s victory was expected, since the ruling party often has an edge in bypolls. But this election should be seen as a revival of the Akali Dal.

"Despite formidable odds — the loss of winning candidate Harmeet Sandhu to AAP before the polls, division in panthic votes and Bikram Majithia in jail, the party still managed to give a tough contest to the ruling government," he added.

The verdict should boost the Akali Dal cadre as well as party leadership, he added.

Congress comes in fourth, BJP distant spectator

Congress candidate Karanbir Singh finished fourth, not getting more than 14,000 votes.

The intense internal factionalism and lack of inspiring leadership are some of the factors responsible for Congress's humiliating defeat in the bypoll.

Analysts pointed out that Congress needs urgent course correction if it wants to be a serious challenger in the 2027 Punjab assembly polls.

Some also said that the result could lead to a change of leadership in the party.

The result was also disappointing for the BJP after its candidate Harjit Sandhu finished fifth, securing merely 5,700 votes. Despite trying so hard in recent years, it seems Punjab is a still a distant dream for BJP. It may ultimately have to return to its old alliance with the Akali Dal.

Overall, the Tarn Taran poll verdict message is clear. AAP kept its seat, but not comfortably. The Akalis lost, yet walked away with a confidence. The Congress and BJP were not serious contenders in this race.

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