Chandigarh: For the record, Punjab has been an outlier in Indian politics.
When the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) under Narendra Modi’s leadership swept national elections in 2014 and 2019, Punjab strengthened anti-BJP political forces.
For instance, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) first tasted political victory outside the national capital here in Punjab only in the 2014 general election when it won four of 13 parliamentary seats here.
Eight years later, the party formed a full majority government in the state.
Illustration: Pariplab Chakraborty
In the 2019 general elections dominated by a strong Modi wave, Punjab again shunned the BJP as well as its alliance partner, Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), giving majority seats to Congress, which otherwise decimated in most parts of the country.
With Punjab again set to vote on June 1 for the 2024 general election, the question is how the state behaves this time.
On the surface, the politics in Punjab appears far more fragmented than before.
For instance, INDIA alliance partners AAP and Congress are competing against each other.
SAD – which primarily thrives on rural vote bank – too distanced itself from its old ally BJP as the ghost of the historic farm protest against the Modi regime in 2020 continues to chase the saffron party.
Then radical forces too are getting some traction in a few seats due to fissures in Sikh Panthic political space.
So, one can sense that Punjab is in the middle of a multi-cornered contest, which technically makes the final outcome hard to predict.
Yet, there are few indications which suggest that Punjab’s verdict may not be as fragmented as it appears.
First, the anti-BJP politics is far louder than before. The reason behind this is the way the Modi regime mistreated farmers trying to march to Delhi in February this year to demand for a minimum support price (MSP) guarantee law.
As a result, farmers all across the state did not let BJP candidates enter villages and run a smooth campaign, thereby putting them in a disadvantaged position.
“BJP thinks that it may be an accidental beneficiary of the split of votes in light of a multi-cornered contest. But the way it continues to face resentment in Punjab, it is not seen as a threat beyond a handful of seats,” commented political analyst Harjeshwar Singh.
Second, the revival of the SAD is still in question. Although it is making all the right noises, like staying away from BJP and reconnecting with its old base of farmers and Sikh voters, many still believe it still faces trust deficit.
It is in this context that Congress and AAP are being seen as the main contenders in this election here in Punjab.
AAP being the ruling government in the state has a lot to ride on. It is the test of its governance model of the past two years.
Besides, the verdict will also reflect upon the leadership of chief minister Bhagwant Mann, who otherwise was the catalyst in the party’s unprecedented victory during the 2022 assembly polls.
AAP claims that its free power subsidy and Mohalla clinics benefited a large section of people in Punjab, yet it flunked on law and order and failed to address issues like the drug menace.
As far as Congress is concerned, it is riding on the SAD-BJP split, as well as some anti-incumbency against AAP. Besides, the Congress is also seen as an alternative to the BJP in the national perspective.
The fielding of heavyweights like former chief minister Charanjit Singh Channi from Jalandhar and Punjab Congress chief Amarinder Singh Raja Warring from Ludhiana too has given some edge to the party over rivals.
