Punjab is heading for a triangular contest for power. The Congress, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) are the axiological contenders, demonstrating their electoral promises and blueprints for development of the state.
Historically, the adept tradition in Punjab has been forging coalitions between different political parties with competing support base. These alliances have been contingent upon the material realities of socio-economic, political and demographic characteristics of constituencies. One prominent attribute of such Gestalt arrangement has been the unceasing identity formation in political convulsive contexts.
The intersecting axes of caste, class, religion, language and nation have been the factors that have shaped the political destiny of Punjab. The vacillation of political parties between the continuum of religious-caste identities and secular Punjabi identity is a well known fact.
Punjab is fundamentally churning at this moment. The reasons are many.
The farmers’ movement
The most important reason is the gathered strength of farmers from Punjab who led a robust peasant protest that pressured the Union government to repeal the three farm laws. It not only brought the focus on the structural crises in the commodised agrarian economy in Punjab but also the systemic problems stemming from the rapid urbanisation.
The protest saw political parties shouldering support but none with a direct confrontationist stance against the BJP or with a definitive plan to mitigate the impact of the fallout of the global capitalist agrarian ecosystem on the farmers. Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) MP Harsimrat Kaur Badal – who resigned from the Union Cabinet in protest against the farm laws, bringing the BJP-SAD alliance to a standstill – was an exception.
The leap of the farmers from mobilisational to institutional practice of politics by floating a political front, Sanyukt Samaj Morcha (SSM), shows their rejection of any dependence on political benevolence. However, consolidation of farmer-voters may be difficult as the Samyukt Kisan Morcha has disowned any allegiance to the political front. The winnability of SSM candidates will be influenced by its political goals and viabilities. Forging a pragmatic yet distinct alliance for seat sharing with a mainstream political party may reduce their chances of political marginalisation.
Also read: Meet Anuroop Sandhu, DU Student and SSM’s Candidate From the Sri Muktsar Sahib Seat
Leadership of Dalits
The second churning is the political space that has been created for Dalit leadership.
The Congress was forced by the deep rooted factionalism in the party, Amarinder Singh’s exit as the chief minister and the anti-incumbency wave to restructure its government four months before the impending assembly elections.
The anti-incumbency influx saw the raging debate over the failure of the Congress regime to initiate a good governance model for Punjab, be it for the economy or social sector. One example was in its inability to generate optimum revenue that can settle the projected debt burden of at least Rs 2.82 lakh crore by the time its five-year term comes to an end in March. When the Congress government took over the reins of the state in March 2017, it got the legacy of Rs 1.82 lakh crore outstanding debts from the previous SAD-BJP alliance government.
The counter-balance to the Congress’s non-performance discourse was its masterstroke on caste dynamics. The elevation of Charanjit Singh Channi, who is froma Dalit community, as the chief minister can be read not only as powerful symbolism but also a critical departure towards exceptionalism in Indian politics.
Punjab chief minister Charanjit Singh Channi. Photo: Twitter/@CHARANJITCHANNI
The Congress has politically juxtaposed Channi’s Dalit Sikh image with AAP’s forte of the celebrated aam aadmi. While the decision could have primarily been influenced by electoral considerations, it is also the Congress’s strategy to appeal to Dalit voters by signalling its commitment to the principle of social justice.
The demographic significance of Dalits in the state is an unexplored political opportunity for power re-configuration. Though Dalits constitute 32% of Punjab’s population, it is the Jat Sikhs – who constitute 25% of the population – who have traditionally monopolised state power. Even if for tokenism, the Congress did what no one else could.
Chief minister Channi has brought to the forefront questions about the political agency of Dalits in Punjab to challenge the dominance of the Jat Sikhs’ political leadership. His prepotency to the constitutional post has galvanised both the SAD and AAP to promise appoint a person from the Dalit community to the deputy chief minister post if they come to power. Hypothetically, the aggregation of Dalit votes in favour of a Dalit chief minister may be a game-changer in elections.
AAP’s ascendancy
The third moment of churning is the ascendancy of AAP in Punjab politics after its innings as the opposition in the state assembly. AAP has offered an electoral template that distinguishes itself from the mainstream political parties – SAD, BJP, Congress – that have alternated in power over the decades.
It has modeled a visible conglomeration of class-caste defined support structure. The organisational structure of AAP is geared towards an aggressive issue-based campaign that seeks to channelise mass discontent over unemployment, the drug trade-politician nexus, sand mining mafia and delivery of basic amenities like education and health. Since the pre-pandemic times, it has mobilised a substantial unit of foot soldiers from local areas to penetrate the hinterland. It has captured the populist imagination of indigenising the Delhi model of governance for Punjab.
Its non-elitist approach with door-to-door campaign by political bigwigs of the party has been resonating egalitarian populism. It has escalated its gains from its formidable presence in the backward pockets of the Malwa region. The impressive surge of AAP in Chandigarh municipal polls is a pointer.
Development politics blended with politicisation of caste can become double engines for ushering in a new political culture in Punjab. The question is whether the undercurrent of churning will take the form of clear verdict or destabilise politics. The future of Punjab depends on the politics it chooses for itself.
Anita Tagore is associate professor of Political Science at Kalindi College, University of Delhi.
