New Delhi: Rahul Gandhi has finally returned to the key state of Uttar Pradesh but surprisingly opted to contest from Rae Bareli instead of Amethi, where Smriti Irani had created a spectacle of his absence for the past few months. Rahul contesting Rae Bareli will demolish the false propaganda that the Congress leadership escaped to the South for political survival, but there are some who feel his not going in to snatch Amethi from Irani, a political lightweight propped up by the BJP’s might, could send multiple signals.
While party workers and Congress supporters in Amethi eagerly waited for him, psyched up for his return by the media coverage over the past few days, the prize ticket went to the family aide Kishori Lal Sharma. This is no doubt an anticlimax and disappointment for family loyalists of Amethi who were itching to teach Irani a lesson for her audacity to create an impression in the country that the “Shehzada” is petrified to return. She had defeated Rahul in 2019 by 55,120 votes.
Illustration: Pariplab Chakraborty
Rahul has picked Rae Bareli, making it about linking his political presence with the string that runs through this historic seat, first fought by Feroze Gandhi, his grandfather and feisty MP who often even took on his father-in-law, Jawaharlal Nehru. The messaging in Rahul contesting Amethi would have provided more fodder for TV debates and elevated Irani into the debate, but a section in the party also feels it would have been seen as more aggressive than his choice of Rae Bareli. It is true the risks involved in contesting Amethi were enormous: While losing to Irani for the second time would have scarred his political stature, he would have to spend more time in the constituency, curtailing the campaigning elsewhere in the country. Many Congress leaders felt it was like falling into the BJP trap as they planned to ensure the main Congress campaigner gets bogged down in one constituency. Many in the party felt defeating Irani was less important than campaigning for other candidates. All in all, even if this decision is seen as surprising, the presence of someone from the Gandhi family in the political fiefdom of Amethi-Rae Bareli was essential for future politics of the Congress.
Rahul’s politics exhibits grit and fortitude, and his newly crafted image is of a leader who could walk across the country in extreme weather, setting aside grave security concerns. While Rahul publicly said he will contest any seat that the party asked him to, Congress leaders were pleading for both Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra to contest from the two seats. Both these leaders contesting, feels this section, would have lifted the morale of the Congress workers and the opposition camp for the remaining five phases of elections in the entire Hindi heartland and elsewhere. But Rahul has chosen to view this differently and ensure that the criticism of both sister and brother fighting UP as a ‘dynasty’ again does not come up. Sonia Gandhi being in the Rajya Sabha and both siblings in the Lok Sabha would leave little to distinguish them from other families with multiple relatives in the electoral fray. But a section feels that the apprehension that both Rahul and Priyanka contesting from neighbouring seats will deepen the perceptions of dynasty is ill-conceived because both are anyway perceived to be integral parts of the Congress leadership, whether they contest elections or not.
In Uttar Pradesh, even the slightest strategic folly has the potential of altering electoral dynamics. Contrary to the perception of unchallenged BJP dominance, Uttar Pradesh has become the key battleground in this election and political observers felt the Congress cannot afford to weaken the resistance by pulling out two of its best soldiers. While reports from Rajasthan, Bihar and Maharashtra have encouraged the opposition, the perception about even Uttar Pradesh has undergone a dramatic change over the past few days. While the BJP was dreaming of more than 75 of the total 80 seats in the state, some political observers have predicted a BJP slide to 50 or even less because of multiple negative factors. Feedback from the first two phases indicated the BJP could be reined in, making it almost essential for Rahul to step up.
The BJP was itching to hijack the discourse, preparing to launch a campaign that the leader who ran away from his pocket borough cannot be trusted to govern the country. The Congress leadership was alive to this danger; Sonia herself understood this better than anyone else and wanted both of them to contest. They knew if Rahul stayed away, Modi and the Sangh parivar ecosystem will project him as a coward. The Congress chose to deal with this threat with a googly, not as per the projections of the BJP or even analysts. But there is a view that Irani was already saying that Rahul was scared of Amethi and ran away to Wayanad in Kerala. She will make it a talking point in Amethi now, refurbishing her credentials as a giant-killer. Her reputation has taken a beating in Amethi over the last five years and retaining the seat would have proven to be a daunting task for her if Rahul contested. The Congress has decided to ignore her entirely. How the campaign pans out will reveal the strength of the strategy the Congress has chosen to craft.
Amethi has been a pocket borough for the Gandhi family. While Sanjay Gandhi won the seat in 1980, Rajiv Gandhi won three consecutive terms in 1981 (by-election after his brother Sanjay’s death), 1984 and 1989. While Rajiv polled 84.18% votes in 1981 against the veteran Sharad Yadav who got merely 6,89% votes, he defeated Maneka Gandhi in 1984 who contested as an independent supported by all opposition parties. While Rajiv got 3.65 lakh votes, Maneka received only 50,163 votes. After Rajiv’s death, his friend Satish Sharma won two terms before leaving the seat for Sonia in 1999. Rahul entered the scene in 2004, subsequently winning the seat in 2009 and 2014 as well.
Even neighbouring Rae Bareli has been controlled by the family. While Feroze Gandhi won the seat once, Indira Gandhi won in 1967 and 1971 while losing in 1977 in the post-Emergency election. In 1980, she reclaimed the seat. Arun Nehru won the seat after her assassination and then it went to her relative Sheila Kaul in 1989. In 1999, Satish Sharma won the seat before Sonia came and won it for five consecutive terms.
