As Congress and BJP Battle for Rajasthan, Can BSP Influence Electoral Outcome?

New Delhi: Even though the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is not expected to win more than a handful of seats in Rajasthan, where the Congress and the BJP are in a direct contest for power, its decision to contest all 200 seats could prove to have an impact on the overall outcome.

BSP chief Mayawati will hold eight major rallies in Rajasthan between November 17 and November 20. The state will go to the polls on November 25, and the votes will be counted on December 3.

Rajasthan has seen only two parties ruling the state: the Congress and the BJP. But the BSP has for the past few elections fielded candidates in many constituencies of the state, even though it has not been hugely successful.

In 2018, the BSP fielded candidates in 190 seats and won six seats. In 25 seats where the BSP contested, the votes that the party's candidate received were greater than the winning candidate's margin. This happened in seats where the BJP, the Congress and independent candidates won.

In these constituencies, though the BSP did not win, it significantly influenced the dynamics of the contest. In certain cases, the BSP may have acted as a "spoiler" by splitting votes that could have otherwise gone to either the Congress or the BJP, Rajasthan's primary political parties, leading to close contests and unexpected outcomes. These results underscore the importance of candidates from smaller parties in India's multi-party electoral system.

Interestingly, a former BSP MLA who is now with the Congress claims that the BSP is working to support the BJP in Rajasthan. Wajib Ali who won from the Nagar constituency in 2018 on the BSP's ticket, defected along with the five other BSP MLAs to the Congress in 2019. This time around, he is being fielded from the Kaman constituency as the Congress's candidate.

Asked by The Wire why all six BSP MLAs decided to join the Congress, Ali said, "In 2018, we didn't know that the party was working for the BJP. However, a year later, when the party decided to field candidates in a way that benefited the BJP, we decided to quit and join the Congress."

Out of the 190 seats where the BSP contested elections, the party received a total of 1,435,858 votes in the state, accounting for 4.03% of the total vote share. However, in 178 seats, the party had to forfeit the security deposit. A candidate's security deposit is liable to be forfeited if they receive less than 1/6th of the total valid votes polled.

In 2013, the BSP contested 195 seats in Rajasthan. The party won only three seats, and forfeited the deposit in 182. Its vote share was 3.48%.

In 2008, the BSP contested 199 seats in Rajasthan, winning six and forfeiting the deposit in 172. It received 7.66% of the polled votes.

The bipolar politics of Rajasthan, which has persisted since 1952, has weathered at least a dozen attempts to develop a third front in the state. These 'third options' typically lasted for a decade or a couple of assembly polls at the most, before merging into one of the two main parties, leaving Rajasthan as one of the few states with no established 'third front'.

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