Three states in the Hindi belt – Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh – are going into a set of crucial elections where the Congress is in a direct face-off with the BJP. Four months after the December results, these states will be crucial battlegrounds in determining the shape of the next government in the Centre.
The respective campaigns will be a good indicator of the possible strategies the two parties may adopt in the Hindi belt.
‘Only Modi’
Illustration: Pariplab Chakraborty
In all three states, the BJP has a simple strategy that’s unlikely to change going into the general elections – Modi. They have declared no chief ministerial candidate and in Madhya Pradesh, the BJP’s going with the campaign slogan and a catchy song with the refrain “Modi ke mann mein basey MP, MP ke mann mein Modi (MP resides in Modi’s heart and Modi lies in MP’s heart).”
To reinforce this message the PM has written out a letter to the votes calling for “seedha samarthan (direct support)” to his government for the oft-repeated idea of a “double-engine sarkaar”.
In Rajasthan, ignoring the clamour for Vasundhara Raje to be made the chief ministerial candidate, at a rally in Jaipur on 2 October, Modi declared, “Iss chunaav mein kamal humaara chehra hai (the lotus is our face for the campaign).” In Chhattisgarh, while Raman Singh and Vijay Baghel are being seen as possible chief ministerial candidates, for now, the BJP’s strategy is again built on Modi’s appeal. From Bihar in 2015 onwards, it has become routine for the BJP to pit the prime-minister against various chief ministers, in the process raising the stakes of each state election.
Congress’ Differing Strategies
In contrast, the Congress’ campaigns in all three states show differences and a greater variety. The Congress in Rajasthan is going to the polls on the basis of Gehlot’s work, foregrounding some path-breaking schemes for development and welfare. “Kaam keeya dil se, Congress phir se (we have) worked from the heart, vote the Congress in again),” is the slogan.
Unlike, in 2011, when the party was unable to project some of the work it had done, most prominently, the effective free medicine scheme, Gehlot has been proactive in publicising his work. A highly visible ad campaign focused on the development schemes is part of attempt to build a brand Gehlot. While still not as effective as the BJP outreach it is a great improvement over the past.
In the NDTV-CSDS-Lokniti poll, aired on November 3, the Gehlot government had an approval rating that speaks well of an incumbent – 43% of those surveyed said they were fully satisfied with the Gehlot government’s performance and 28% were somewhat satisfied. This sharp focus on development has kept the Congress’ campaign in Rajasthan away from notions of “soft Hindutva,” unlike in Madhya Pradesh and even Chhattisgarh. In Madhya Pradesh, but for the fact that Kamal Nath is visibly a Congress politician, his utterances could easily lead you to conclude that someone from the BJP, or maybe even from the Bajrang Dal, had been picked by the Congress as its CM candidate.
Congress’ Kamal?
Kamal Nath has continued to reiterate the fact that it was Rajiv Gandhi who got the locks of the Babri structure reopened. In doing so, he is only echoing a stream in the Congress that has expressed frustration at not being able to claim their part in the construction of the Ram temple. In his bid to woo the Hindu vote, he has, among other things, promised to develop the Sri Ram Van Gaman Path (the route believed to be taken by Ram and Sita during their exile) and install statues of Ram, Nishadraj and Kewatraj in Chitrakoot. In Chhattisgarh, Bhupesh Baghel has followed suit by inaugurating a Ram Van Gaman Tourism Circuit which focuses on the sites where Ram and Sita are believed to have stayed during their exile.
Even Gehlot has not stayed entirely clear of such moves. His setting up a Brahmin welfare board, increasing the honorarium for priests and most prominently, his allocation of funds for gaushalas and insurance for cows has been seen as an attempt to counter the BJP’s Hindutva policies. But in his speeches, press-conferences and in this election campaign so far, politics in the name of Ram or other Hindu gods has been kept out.
The comparison with MP is stark. In one state the Congress is hoping to harvest four terms of anti-incumbency and should have been naturally poised to take power without a fight yet it has been forced into rhetoric that has never helped it before. In Rajasthan, governments have come and gone at the end of a five-year term in a cycle that goes back thirty years. Yet, the BJP remains unsure of a victory that it should normally take for granted.
Some of this lies in the choice of leaders, Kamal Nath is an ‘upper’ caste outsider to MP, who has constantly had to foreground his Hindu faith. He has risen to prominence in the Congress primarily though his closeness to the Gandhi family and his ability to organise funding. In contrast, Gehlot is an OBC from Rajasthan with a support base of his own who has never had to make an overt display his faith. These differences are reflected in the campaign. Only a leader rooted in a region and comfortable with her identity can work with a campaign plank that is not reactive.
In both these states, merely doing well in the state elections is no indicator of a good performance in the Lok Sabha elections to follow. After winning both the last Assembly elections the Congress was decimated by the BJP with its emphasis on Modi’s leadership.
To try and ensure this is not repeated it needs to take a leaf out of the Gehlot book and build a campaign around the work they have done in states like Rajasthan and Karnataka. It cannot be seen as reacting to the BJP with soft hindutva, even if Kamal Nath wins now, because this would only lead to a repeat of 2019.
Ashok Gehlot campaigns for Congress in Rajasthan. Photo: X/@ashokgehlot51
Madhya Pradesh Congress leaders. Photo: X/@INCMP
Rajasthan’s Future
The Gehlot campaign also has repercussions for Rajasthan. It is not as if the state is known for fiercely secular politics. It is no secret that in 2019, the Congress did not aggressively speak out on issues of lynching. In fact, tribal youth rallying around parties like BAP (Bhartiya Adivasi Party) argue that the Congress has done little to push back the rise of Hindutva, allowing organisations like the Vanvasi Kalyan and others to flourish. But the nature of Hindutva politics in Rajasthan does not share the tenor and rhetoric of the Modi era.
At Bhairon Singh Shekhawat’s centennial celebrations in Jaipur on October 23, I found that party workers who had gathered from across the state were still rooting for Vasundhara Raje to be made the chief minister. She represents an older avatar of the BJP, while pushing the RSS agenda she was at least able to ensure that Muslims were not living under constant threat. Her ability to keep the RSS in check was already in decline during her second stint in power. If the BJP wins soundly, without projecting Vasundhara Raje, it will also push Rajasthan into the direction of a more aggressive hindutva.
Differences matter
Given the current state of the country these differences matter. Today, we look across the opposition there are no great options in the Hindi belt. In this otherwise bleak scenario, the Gehlot framework at least provides a way. It would be foolhardy of the party to forsake it, whatever the outcome in Rajasthan.
