Before the 2022 assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, the Samajwadi Party (SP) had never managed to breach the 30% vote share since its formation in 1992. Even when it formed the government in 2012 with a comfortable majority, its vote share remained at 29.15%. The principal reason for this had been the multi-cornered contests in the state and the party’s Muslim-Yadav image.
In the recently concluded polls, however, the SP registered its best vote share by managing to poll more than 30% of the votes. Contesting 347 seats, it polled 32.06% of the votes. Along with its allies, it polled 36.32% of the votes – a significant jump of 8.25% from its 2017 vote share, when it contested in alliance with the Congress Party. Despite this bump, the SP and its allies could not oust the mighty BJP.
This begs the question of whether the SP will be able to improve – or at least hold on to the jump in – its vote share further. The jump itself can be attributed to two factors: either it was a wave in favour of the SP or it was merely a consolidation of anti-BJP voters. If it is the former, the SP should be able to hold on to the jump. But if it was a consolidation of anti-BJP voters, repeating its 2022 performance will be an uphill task for the party.
Even after such a huge jump, the SP-led alliance polled 7.5% lesser votes than the BJP and its partners – who polled 43.82% of the total votes cast. In 29 out of UP’s 75 districts, the SP couldn’t even open its account – this includes its stronghold city of Kannauj. Akhilesh Yadav represented the Kannauj Lok Sabha seat thrice, while his wife Dimple Yadav has represented it twice and Mulayam Singh Yadav once.
Samajwadi Party (SP) president Akhilesh Yadav speaks during an election campaign rally for the Uttar Pradesh assembly elections, in Auraiya, February 16, 2022. Photo: PTI
The election turned so sharply bipolar this time that the alliances led by the BJP and SP polled over 80% of the votes and shared 398 of the 403 seats amongst them. The Congress’s already poor vote share took another hit in the state, dropping from 6.36% in 2019 to just 2.33% in 2022. The Samajwadi Party will hope for the election to remain bipolar, because any improvement in the Congress’s vote share will damage its prospects.
Another miserable performance for the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) means it is a third consecutive failure by the party of India’s tallest Dalit leader and four-term chief minister of the state, Mayawati. The party was able to get just one seat in the state. Even in its bastion of Ambedkar Nagar, it stood third in four of the five seats in the district.
In the past, the BSP was able to command around 20% of the votes even when it performed badly. But its vote share dropped this time drastically, to just 12.88%. It is difficult to ascertain which way its voters went.
With the vote shares of both the BSP and Congress declining, the challenge ahead for the SP would be to win the confidence of voters who still don’t consider it as an option.
Its reputation of being a Muslim-Yadav party still seems to be hampering its chances in the state. To woo BSP voters would be a big challenge for the Akhilesh-led party, but if this is the best time to capitalise on the opportunity – BSP voters are surely looking for a new home. In the latest election, apart from the Pasi community, no other Dalit caste has clearly shifted towards the SP.
Also Read: A Bipolar Contest Where Candidates Mattered: What Data Says About the UP Results
What could SP have done differently?
There was strong resentment against the sitting BJP legislators across the state – but it was limited to the local level and did not extend to the state leadership. But the Samajwadi Party couldn’t establish itself as an alternative for the BJP’s voters. The SP also erred by making it a contest between Akhilesh Yadav and Yogi Adityanath. Keeping the focus on local issues might have helped it significantly, as the incumbency was clearly against the MLAs but not the CM. Thakurs, Brahmins, Baniyas and non-Yadav OBCs still consider Samajwadi Party as a “party of Yadavs” and the BJP as a “party of Hindus”.
In Ayodhya, there was resentment against the road widening projects. From the fact that voter turnout fell by around 2%, it is evident that people chose not to vote rather than vote for the SP. Similarly in Bilgram-Mallawan constituency, the BJP’s vote share dropped approximately by 2% at a time when its state average actually improved – but these votes clearly went to the Congress and not the SP.
The challenge ahead for the SP would be to not just hold on to its vote share but also add a few percentage points directly from the BJP. Without this, it may be almost impossible to unseat the BJP in UP.
Even if the election somehow turns more bipolar and the SP and BJP alliances poll around 85-90% votes, the task is still uphill for the SP. Akhilesh’s party will need to significantly better its performance since the BJP and its partners are already safely placed with around 44% of the votes in its bag. Without a direct swing, that 7.5% gap looks unbridgeable.
