Haryana is set to go to the polls today (October 5) in a single-phase election. Over 20.4 million voters will cast their ballots, deciding the fate of the major political players vying for power in the state. The long campaign has seen intense battles among the BJP, the Indian National Congress (INC), the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD), the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP) and the newly emerging Aam Aadmi Party (AAP).
The incumbent BJP, facing the weight of anti-incumbency sentiment, is striving to retain its hold on power. Meanwhile, the INC hopes to harness the growing dissatisfaction with the ruling party to stage a comeback.
On the regional front, the INLD and the JJP, both once dominant forces in Haryana, are fighting for survival. They have formed alliances with Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Chandrashekhar Aazad’s Aazad Samaj Party respectively to strengthen their chances, but the impact of these coalitions remains unclear.
The INLD-BSP alliance has struggled to create a significant ripple in the political landscape, and the JJP, led by Dushyant Chautala, is facing a dip in support. Chautala himself is reportedly trailing in his home constituency of Uchana Kalan, a seat that holds symbolic value for the party.
On the other hand, the AAP, a new entrant in the state, has made some progress, particularly in the Jagadhri assembly seat, where the party fielded INC rebel Adarsh Pal Gurjar. However, it has not yet made significant gains in other areas in Haryana.
The INC is gaining popularity in the GT Karnal Road region, which includes Panchkula, Ambala, Kurukshetra, Karnal and Panipat districts. This area is mainly home to OBC communities like Punjabis, Sainis and Kambojs, along with some Jatt Sikhs.
For example, in the Ambala City assembly seat, INC candidate Nirmal Singh is giving a strong challenge to BJP candidate and incumbent MLA and minister in Haryana government Aseem Goel, despite the fact that Nirmal Singh comes from the Jat community that has a minimal vote share in this assembly. The INC seems to have a slight lead in this seat.
In the Panchkula seat, the BJP’s incumbent MLA and speaker in the Haryana assembly Gian Chand Gupta is facing tough competition from former deputy chief minister Chander Mohan Bishnoi of the INC.
In the Ladwa seat, INC candidate Mewa Singh is also putting up a strong fight against chief minister Nayab Singh Saini. Saini’s decision to shift from the BJP safe seat of Karnal to Ladwa, where the incumbent MLA is from the INC, may backfire.
In the Ahirwal region, which includes Gurgaon, Mahendragarh and Rewari districts, the BJP is facing pushback after performing well in past elections. In Gurgaon – once a safe seat for the BJP – the INC candidate is Mohit Grover, who in the 2019 assembly election ran as an independent from here and received 25% of the vote share.
Grover, a Punjabi Khatri (a group that makes up around 41% of the total population of the Gurugon seat), is now a strong contender against BJP candidate Mukesh Sharma.
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In seats in the Gurgaon and Faridabad areas, even though the position of the BJP is strong, there is anti-incumbency after the BJP’s ten years in power, infighting in the party and a few strong INC candidates. One of these is Rohtash Khatana, who is contesting from the Sohna seat. He is a Gurjar and has a stronghold over the community, which has a majority in this seat.
Other strong INC candidates are M.L. Ranga from the SC-reserved Bawal seat and incumbent MLA Neeraj Sharma (a Brahmin) from the Faridabad NIT seat. Given this, the INC is likely to gain the Gurgaon and Faridabad areas.
In the Jat belt areas of Rohtak, Sonipat, Jhajjar, Sirsa, Hisar and Jind, the INC has historically been strong. The decline of the JJP in this region is helping the INC gain seats. Bhupinder Singh Hooda and Deepender Hooda’s popularity is a major boost for the INC in this region.
For instance, in the Meham seat, which comes under Rohtak, the INC lost the 2019 assembly election to independent candidate Balraj Kundu, but for the upcoming assembly election, the INC’s candidate Balram Dangi, son of senior Jat leader Anand Dangi, seems to be giving a tough fight to Kundu.
Another prominent gain for the INC seems to be the Julana seat, which comes under the Jind district. INC candidate and wrestler Vinesh Phogat seems to be in a favourable condition to win against JJP candidate and incumbent MLA Amarjeet Dhanda. The last time the INC won Julana was the 2005 assembly election.
In the Muslim-majority areas of Nuh, which include the Nuh, Punahana and Ferozepur Jhirka constituencies, the INC seems likely to win all three seats comfortably. The BJP has fielded two Muslim candidates, Aizaz Khan from Punahana and Naseem Ahmed from Ferozepur Jhirka, but the consolidation of Muslim votes towards the INC is ensuring an INC win in all three seats.
In the 2019 Haryana assembly election, the trends were largely aligned with the respective Lok Sabha constituencies. The INC was strong in the Rohtak, Sonipat, Ambala and Kurukshetra Lok Sabha seats, while the BJP dominated the Gurgaon, Faridabad, Bhiwani-Mahendragarh and Karnal constituencies. The Hisar and Sirsa Lok Sabha seats were traditionally strongholds of the Chautalas, split between the JJP and the INLD.
By the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the scenario had shifted, with elections in Haryana focusing more on local issues, leading to a direct contest between the INC and BJP. The BJP retained its strongholds, while the INC did the same.
However, significant changes occurred in the Hisar and Sirsa constituencies, where the INLD and the JJP lost ground. The INLD suffered from statewide inactivity, while the JJP faced severe anti-incumbency, largely due to public discontent over their support for the BJP during the controversy over the three farm laws.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the INC led in 46 assembly segments, a trend that is expected to continue in the assembly election today.
One key factor in the INC’s favor is their decision to field strong candidates with high chances of winning. For instance, in the Sirsa assembly constituency, the INC has nominated Gokul Setia, who ran as an independent in the 2019 election, making him a formidable competitor against the Haryana Lokhit Party-INLD candidate Gopal Kanda.
Similarly, Mohit Grover’s nomination in Gurgaon demonstrates the INC’s focus on selecting candidates with strong winning potential.
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The INLD-BSP alliance has gained some significant traction in recent days, positioning itself as a contender in Haryana’s fiercely competitive assembly election. With key candidates mounting formidable challenges across various constituencies, the alliance’s success will depend on its ability to consolidate support in a landscape dominated by the BJP and the INC.
Here’s a breakdown of the crucial seats where INLD and BSP candidates are expected to have a close fight with their opponents.
In Yamunanagar, the INLD’s Dilbag Singh, a seasoned politician and former MLA (2009-2014), is locked in a tight contest against incumbent BJP MLA Ghanshyam Das Arora. Dilbag Singh, a strong Jat leader with a loyal voter base, has revitalised the INLD’s prospects in this constituency. The contest is expected to be a nail-biter, with both the BJP and the INLD fighting neck and neck.
INLD national president Abhay Singh Chautala, a heavyweight in the Ellenabad constituency, faces a tough challenge from the INC’s Bharat Beniwal. Despite Abhay’s stronghold across Hisar and Sirsa, reports from the ground suggest that Beniwal, also a prominent Jat leader, is gaining significant support. The fight is expected to go down to the wire, and Chautala may be at risk of losing this seat.
Arjun Chautala, the son of Abhay Singh Chautala and part of the next generation of the Chautala political dynasty, is making a strong push in the Rania constituency. Arjun is in a competitive four-way race involving Sarva Mitra Kamboj (INC), Sheeshpal Kamboj (BJP) and independent candidate Ranjit Singh Chautala. Despite the crowded field, Arjun’s candidacy is gaining momentum, giving him a good chance of victory.
In Narwana, Vidya Rani, an INC rebel now representing the INLD, has been gaining ground. Her appeal to both rural and urban voters, coupled with the BJP’s candidate Krishan Bedi being perceived as an outsider, has tilted the race in her favor. Rani is currently the frontrunner in this INLD-BJP contest.
Aditya Devilal, grandson of former deputy prime minister Devi Lal, is contesting from Dabwali as an INLD candidate after being denied a BJP ticket. Dabwali is witnessing a three-way contest involving Devilal, the INC’s Amit Sihag and the JJP candidate. Despite Devilal’s strong Jat support, Sihag currently has an edge, though the race remains competitive.
In the SC-reserved seat of Sadhaura, Brij Pal Chhapar, an INC rebel running on a BSP ticket, has injected new energy into the race. Chhapar has a loyal voter base and is receiving additional support from BSP voters, though the INC remains the favorite to retain this seat. Chhapar is expected to siphon off a portion of the INC’s votes, making the outcome less predictable.
In the upcoming elections, several key constituencies are also witnessing the rise of strong independent candidates and INC rebels, which could significantly impact the party’s prospects. In Uchana Kalan, the INC faces a major challenge with rebels Virender Ghoghadia and Dilbag Sandil – both influential Jat leaders – contesting against the official INC candidate Brijendra Singh.
With the JJP’s Dushyant Chautala also in the race and the BJP’s Devender Attri securing support from OBC and Brahmin voters, the division of the Jat vote between multiple candidates could tilt the scales in favor of the BJP.
Also read: BJP-Congress Contest in Haryana Centres Around Jat Dominance
A similar situation is unfolding in the Baroda and Tigaon seats, where INC rebels are threatening to split the vote. In Baroda, senior Jat leader Kapoor Singh Narwal, denied an INC ticket, is running as an independent, competing against sitting MLA Induraj Narwal. The division of the Jat vote between these two candidates may weaken the INC’s hold on the seat.
In Tigaon, the INC’s decision to field Rohit Nagar has led to a rebellion by Lalit Nagar, a strong Gurjar leader whose independent campaign is attracting significant local support, potentially undermining the party’s chances.
The situation is equally precarious in the Ambala Cantonment, Bahadurgarh and Safidon seats, where INC rebels are creating a direct challenge to the party. In Ambala Cantonment, Chitra Sarwara, a prominent Jat leader and INC rebel, is contesting against both the official INC candidate and the BJP’s Anil Vij, which could split INC votes and help the BJP.
Bahadurgarh’s Rajesh Joon and Safidon’s Jasbir Deswal, both running independently after being denied INC tickets, are dividing the Jat vote, making these constituencies tough battles for the INC. Similarly, in Ganaur, BJP rebel Devender Kadyan’s stronghold on Jat voters is threatening both the BJP and the INC, turning it into a highly competitive race.
Reports from the ground suggest a strong anti-BJP sentiment has emerged against the party’s ten-year rule, including five years in alliance with the JJP. The aftermath of the farmers’ protest has only fuelled this growing discontent, which appears to be intensifying.
Meanwhile, the INC, led by Bhupinder Hooda and Deepender Hooda, has been campaigning vigorously across the state over the past two years, positioning itself as the primary alternative to the ruling alliance.
The INLD, once a significant player in Haryana politics, has lost its foothold due to inactivity on the ground and a lack of leadership presence. With the INLD struggling, the people of Haryana seem to have limited options in this election, and the momentum appears to be shifting toward the INC, raising the possibility of a clear INC victory.
