The latest news from Manipur is that Ajay Kumar Bhalla, the former home secretary of the Union government, is the new governor of the state. But the two other bits of news that Manipur watchers must be more eagerly waiting to hear are, one, when will our prime minister, Narendra Modi, visit the state which he has been mysteriously dodging, and two, when will the Manipur chief minister, N. Biren Singh, who has failed to quell the ethnic violence, be asked to quit.
Of the two questions, one need not attach much importance to the second – Singh’s rule rests on the mercy of the Modi government. One also cannot be sure whether he ever really ruled the state with full command.
In less than a month after the stripping incident of May 3, 2023, the then governor of Manipur, Anusuiya Uikey, on May 31, had unceremoniously disqualified him from the customary chairmanship of the unified command of the state’s security outfits. On June 17, he was excluded from the high-level security meeting on Manipur which was held in Delhi. Even in the first security conference that governor Bhalla convened after his takeover, Singh was conspicuously missing.
It is evident, therefore, that the buck stops at the desk of Prime Minister Modi and hence the question is what he is up to, or, what is behind his obstinacy not to visit Manipur at all. Is keeping Singh merely as a titular chief minister suits Modi’s politics the best?
Whatever may be said in criticism of Modi as a human being, or his style of governance, one thing that will have to be conceded is that he is a master craftsman of realpolitik. If so, his decision not to visit Manipur cannot be unintended. But how to read Modi’s mind is not easy. Since unlike former Prime Ministers Jawaharlal Nehru or Manmohan Singh, both of whom had long tenures, Modi seldom gives an opportunity to anyone, even his party members, to read his mind. The only way to know it, therefore, is by making some intelligent guesses which one can attempt to do.
A recap of the crisis
But before that, a recap of the present crisis is in order. It triggered after the Manipur high court judgment of March 27, 2023 which ruled that like the Nagas and Kukis, the Meitei community should also be granted the Scheduled Tribe (ST) status. Although the judgment was soon revoked, the Kuki community had already revolted. Soon the Meiteis retaliated in greater numbers. On May 3, some rowdy elements from among them most unabashedly paraded naked some Kuki women with the obvious purpose of sending the message that Manipur belonged to the Meiteis and the Kukis were a subservient minority.
The Meitei-Kuki civil war that ensued soon resulted in about 250 deaths and 60,000 people being displaced. Militants belonging to both communities became so ferocious that even the security forces started fearing them. In February 2024, when about 200 Meitei militants stormed the residence of the additional superintendent of police and demanded the release of one of their men in custody the police had to oblige. The police conceded that if they did not, they themselves could have been ‘lynched or shot dead.’
The Myanmar connection of the conflict is also relevant. The India-Myanmar border is porous and many communities have cross-border ethnic connections, and since there is the massive issue of drug and gun running, the Manipur question is a complex one. A Hindu report dated January 25, 2024 noted: “In September 2022, authorities in Manipur pushed back 4,300… Myanmar nationals from the Moreh area…. The civil war in the neighbouring country [Myanmar] also forced some 40,000 people into Mizoram, who unlike Manipur, made them feel at home primarily due to their ethnic affiliation.”
The Indian government has toyed with the idea of fencing the India-Myanmar border which I would say is yet another flight to fantasy. India’s former Chief of the Army Staff, General M.M. Naravane, did not mince his words when he warned that besides its prohibitive cost, such a fence could serve “a useful purpose if it is kept under observation and patrolled throughout its length. Without the ability to react to any breach, a fence is of little value.”
The Congress-BJP divide
The Congress-Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) political divide complicates the Manipur problem. To the extent that Manipur has a chequered political history in which even left adventurism had once mattered, both Congress and the BJP would have to share the blame for the mess we see today. It has been argued that while the Congress rule was known for its ‘fake encounters’, BJP has mastered the art of rampant ‘detentions’. But exonerating oneself by referring to the past mistakes of others, as Modi routinely does, for example, by referring to Nehru, is neither good politics, nor a good reading of history.
In the recently held parliamentary election in May 2024, Modi’s no-show in the state was a campaign theme. Congress did embarrass the BJP on this score and advertised, in contrast, Rahul Gandhi’s two visits to the state. After the election, in which Congress won both the Manipur seat, the party’s newly elected MP, and also a JNU professor, Angomcha Bimol Akoijam, thunderously told parliament that “I would keep quiet the moment the Prime Minister opens his mouth.”
Why is Modi dodging the Manipur question?
Returning to our central question, why is Modi not visiting Manipur or talking about it, here are my six speculative takes.
- One, BJP is in power in Manipur and in normal circumstances the next assembly election is due in early 2027, two long years from now. Having known Modi’s penchant for electioneering, he has no reason to warm himself up now. He would take the call in all earnest at the right time.
- Two, Manipur sends only two members to our 543-strong parliament. It makes little difference to his party in power even if these two seats go to the opposition and has already happened.
- Three, the majority Hindu Meitei community is well entrenched in power which cannot be dislodged by other communities, whether the minority Naga or the Kuki communities, the latter even less. They are just 16% of the population compared to 53% Meiteis and 20% Nagas. Moreover, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) has been extremely active in the entire Northeast, right from the time of India’s independence. (It may be interesting to note that the first chief minister of Manipur after it became a state in the Indian Union in 1972 was a Muslim, Mohammed Alimuddin.)
- Four, there is a huge illicit drug and narcotic economy in the region which is endemic to the entire broader region of India, much more so in the areas abutting Myanmar and by extension, Thailand. It is common knowledge that any ruling party in these critical northeastern states takes advantage of this illegal trade for their party funding. Since the BJP is ruling Manipur, that may have something to do with it.
- Five, more tension in the area means more demand in the rest of the country for border fencing between India and Myanmar. Fencing is the easiest option ordinary people understand to tackle international migrations and the drug trade. There is a huge mechanism of contract allotment and doling out of political favours associated with these deals which an unsuspecting common man seldom understands.
- Six, it is surmised that behind the dogged determination of the Modi government not to grant autonomy to the Kukis is corporate India’s greedy eyes on the forest and other natural resources of the areas which form their habitat. The nexus between Modi and some of India’s leading corporate giants is common knowledge.
To conclude, given the geography of Manipur and the security dynamics of the region, the Modi government must politically respond to contain the strife before it goes beyond control. It must be underlined that the annual report 2023-24 of the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) has noted that Manipur accounts for 77% of the violent cases attributed to the entire Northeast.
To drive home the point in a better way, a comparative analysis may help. Of the Northeast’s total population of 45,709,443, Manipur’s population is 2,855,794, just 6.24%. Of Northeast’s total area of 264,331 sq km, Manipur accounts for 22,327 sq km, just 8.44%. Of the 26 MPs from Northeast, Manipur sends merely 2, which is just 7.7%.
About six months ago, on July 3, 2024, Modi explained to the Rajya Sabha the historical roots of the situation of Manipur. But by typically battering the Congress for all that had gone wrong in the state he cut a sorry figure. The Hindu editorial three days laters was spot on: “Bluster and mere acknowledgment of the crisis will not solve the problems in Manipur and Mr. Modi has to become proactive in leading changes.”
It is sad to note that the same explanation is now being parroted by chief minister Singh. In response to the alarming figures supplied in the MHA report, he said “sorry to the people of the state for what happened since May 3 last year [2023] … and [that he] would like to apologise to all natives.” But just within a couple of days he was back on the game with conventional gusto. He held the Congress responsible for the conflict.
Partha S. Ghosh is a retired professor of South Asian studies at JNU.