Hyderabad: In the recently-concluded Andhra Pradesh Assembly elections, the anti-incumbency votes against the government of Chief Minister Y.S. Jaganmohan Reddy didn’t get divided and went almost in its entirety to the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and its two allies, the BJP and the Jana Sena, which led to the humiliating defeat of the YSR Congress.
The sheer extent of the YSR Congress’s defeat cannot be just gauged by the drop in its vote share, which dropped by only 10 per cent, roughly the same percentage by which the vote share of the TDP-led alliance increased, as compared to the 2019 elections.
Illustration: Pariplab Chakraborty
But despite its vote share dipping by just 10 per cent, the YSR Congress could win only 11 out of the total 175 Assembly constituencies, with the TDP alliance bagging 164 seats.
Political analysts explained that the 10 per cent shortfall for YSR Congress could have been overcome by split in anti-incumbency vote if a third player was in the contest.
The Congress posed no challenge of splitting the vote of YSR Congress even though it was an alternative to both groupings. As a result, the anti-incumbency votes against the government didn’t split up and went to the TDP-led alliance.
An example of the splitting up of the anti-incumbency votes can be seen in the case of the Telangana Assembly elections six months ago, wherein the Congress could not win more seats because of the presence of the BJP, which led to the anti-government votes being split up between the two parties.
In the Telangana elections, the Bharat Rashtra Samiti (BRS), which was in power at the time, had 37.6 per cent vote share and won 39 seats while the Congress won 64 seats from a poll percentage of 39.7. As a third player, the BJP chipped in with 14 per cent vote share and won eight seats.
As a result, the anti-government vote was split and the Congress could not win more seats. But a similar phenomenon didn’t occur in Andhra Pradesh for the TDP and its partners Jana Sena and BJP because the electoral contest was bipolar and not triangular.
Experts say that anything short of 50 per cent vote in a two-way contest is defeatist because both sides will have loyal voter base to a certain extent. Victory or defeat will be determined only by swing voters.
Arresting Naidu was a move that backfired for YSR Congress
Indications of a tough time for the YSR Congress in elections were available last year when the candidates backed by the party lost elections to Legislative Council in three graduates constituencies. A candidate of TDP also won the Council election from local authorities constituency.
The arrest of TDP president N. Chandrababu Naidu in an alleged scam in a skill development programme run by the government when he was the Chief Minister from 2014 to 2019 was perhaps the biggest blunder of YSR Congress government.
Naidu was jailed in the case for 52 days with hardly eight months to go for elections. There was a groundswell of support in sympathy for Naidu and anger against Chief Minister Reddy as Naidu’s wife Bhuvaneswari joined the protests against the YSR Congress across the state.
It was at this juncture that actor turned politician Pawan Kalyan entered in a series of consultations with Naidu to forge an alliance with the TDP. After visiting Naidu at jail, Kalyan announced that an alliance was sealed between the TDP and Jana Sena.
Thereafter, it was the continuous persuasion by Kalyan with top leaders of BJP, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi and party president J.P. Nadda, which ensured that the saffron party joined ranks to put up a joint fight against YSR Congress.
The three parties buried their differences and entered into a seat sharing arrangement with just days left for issue of election notification. Kalyan compromised and agreed to give to BJP three Assembly seats out of the quota for Jana Sena to break a deadlock in talks.
Finally, the TDP was allotted 144 Assembly and 17 Parliamentary seats, Jana Sena 21 and 2 and BJP 10 and 6. It was argued that the BJP was offered more seats than its strength. In fact, the party did not have a single MLA or MP last time. The partners went ahead with several changes in seat allotment with larger interest of alliance in view.
The alliance worked so well that TDP won 135 Assembly and 16 Parliamentary seats, Jana Sena had a 100 per cent strike rate, winning all 21 Assembly and 2 Parliamentary seats while the BJP won eight and three seats respectively.
The YSR Congress was reduced to 11 Assembly seats against 151 it won last time and 4 Parliamentary seats.
The YSR Congress was seen as a natural ally of the BJP till the last minute because of its support to BJP led National Democratic Alliance in passage of Bills and other decisions of the government in Parliament.
Even the Prime Minister avoided any attack on CM Jagan in his first public meeting as part of election campaign in Andhra Pradesh. Later, of course, all the three parties campaigned in tandem and even addressed rallies at constituencies where they supported their alliance partners and didn’t have candidates of their own.
Pawan Kalyan’s success in stitching up alliance against Jagan
However, it was the zeal of movie star Kalyan to include the BJP in the fight against what the alliance claimed autocratic, corrupt and vengeful government of Jagan that swung the results of elections.
The YSR Congress won 151 seats against 23 of TDP in a four-cornered contest last time. But the government was found wanting in development and creating jobs. It depended on welfare schemes to the tune of Rs 2.75 lakh crore in a bid to retain power. However, the introduction of volunteer system to take the benefits to the doorsteps of public, diluted the role of elected representatives. The interface of MPs and MLAs with public was badly missing.
The opposition exploited the Andhra Pradesh Land Titling Act to launch a campaign against the government saying the legislation aimed to grab the lands of poor. Also, other issues such as the absence of clarity on the capital for the state and suspension of work on Polavaram irrigation project citing faulty design helped the opposition to train guns on the government.
It was at this time that Naidu was sent to jail which served the public grim reminder about similar arrest from the past including those of of senior TDP leaders Atchannaidu, Kollu Ravinder, Devineni Umamaheswara Rao, J.C. Prabhakar Reddy, Dhulipala Narendra Kumar and Chintamaneni Prabhakar. Several TDP activists were also attacked, some of them fatally, in targeted violence by YSR Congress.
The insult to Naidu in Assembly by YSR Congress members Ambati Rambabu and Kodali Nani was also fresh in the minds of public. The YSR Congress members made a remark against Naidu’s wife, upon which he walked out of the House swearing never again to return until he became Chief Minister.
Jagan and the rest of the House laughed away at the time as Naidu left in a fit of rage, only to now keep his promise.
Political analyst Telakapalli Ravi praised Pawan Kalyan’s role in the victory of the TDP-led alliance by consolidating the vote of Kapu community which had a strong presence in coastal districts. In fact, Kalyan had split the vote of TDP last time in 30 to 35 constituencies with Jana Sena contesting independently.
Another leader who did not want to be named, said the continuation of Naidu in NDA would remain clouded with doubts because he walked away from alliance with the BJP in 2018 over the refusal of Centre to grant special category status to Andhra Pradesh.
The TDP, Jana Sena and BJP broke away from each other and contested independently next year. The BJP did not win a single seat then while the Jana Sena was restricted to one seat.
Read all of The Wire’s reporting on and analysis of the 2024 election results here.
