Hyderabad: Five years can be a long time, especially in politics.
After a thumping victory in the assembly elections in late 2018, the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS, then TRS) and K. Chandrashekar Rao (KCR)’s political dominance of Telangana seemed complete. But just months later, in the 2019 general elections, the BRS managed to win just over half of the 17 seats on offer and both the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Congress performed much better than they did in the assembly elections.
In subsequent years, all the parties have been through a roller-coaster of a ride. At one point, the BJP looked to be the BRS’s closest challenger. It has now retreated to a distant third. The Congress, having seen 12 of its MLAs defect to KCR’s party in the past, is now in pole position in the state, according to one opinion poll. If that poll is to be believed, KCR – who might have hoped for a long, comfortable tenure in the chief minister’s chair like Odisha’s Naveen Patnaik – now has a fight on his hands to retain India’s youngest state, which goes to the polls on November 30.
On the ground
Since Telangana was formed in 2014, the focus has been on the issues that were foregrounded in the movement for a separate state: creating jobs; providing irrigation facilities to the semi-arid region’s farmers and uplifting the state’s marginalised communities.
KCR has initiated several development projects and welfare schemes in the past decade, and the BRS’s manifesto – released last Sunday (October 15) – promises to take this forward. From providing life insurance cover of Rs 5 lakh to the state’s 93 lakh below poverty line (BPL) families; supplying superfine rice through the public distribution system to all ration card holders; and increasing the pensions for senior citizens, single women and disabled persons, the manifesto doubles down on the BRS’s core vision.
Such programmes, with a focus on farmers and marginalised groups, were touted by KCR as the mantle for an “alternative national agenda” when he decided to take his party national in October 2022. But apart from opening an office in Delhi, there has not been much progress on that front in the past year. The only party that publicly supported his national ambitions was the Janata Dal (Secular), which has since joined the NDA.
Much like the BJP, the BRS’s organisational and decision-making structures are highly centralised. Though it has some leaders who command their own local following, it depends largely on the popularity of KCR and to a lesser extent his family members (son K.T. Rama Rao and nephew T. Harish Rao) during elections.
While the anti-incumbency sentiment is more palpable this time around than it was five years ago, there is little doubt that KCR still enjoys the goodwill of a people who credit him for the formation of Telangana. This sentiment could prove crucial given that pollsters suggest the party is in a neck-and-neck fight with the Congress.
Congress’s change in fortunes
The Congress’s Telangana unit has been re-energised by the party coming to power in neighbouring Karnataka. The grand old party has followed its now-familiar playbook in the state so far, making pre-poll guarantees to support women, farmers, housing, and financial assistance for education.
However, Telangana is likely to be an exception when it comes to the demand to hold a caste survey. In all the other poll-bound states (except Mizoram, where caste is not a factor), the Congress has promised to conduct a survey to reveal how much of the population is constituted of Other Backward Classes (OBCs), Dalits, and tribal communities, and what is their share in decision-making. While the party’s president wrote to KCR demanding a similar exercise in Telangana, it is unlikely to be the campaign’s tent-pole.
In Telangana, the Congress is often referred to as a ‘Reddy party’, as it is dominated by leaders from the forward caste. Its first list of candidates for the assembly election also bears this out – 15 out of the 55 were Reddys.
The party has already lost Ponnala Lakshmaiah, a former minister in the undivided Andhra Pradesh state, for the party’s alleged sidelining of OBC leaders. He is likely to join the BRS. In such a scenario, posturing for a caste survey and promises to grant proportional representation may risk opening a Pandora’s box.
The necessity for a caste survey might also be negated by the fact that the KCR government in 2014 conducted an extensive survey which collected not only caste-related but also other socio-economic data. It showed that OBCs were 53.5% of the state’s population, while Dalits constituted 18.5% and (Scheduled Tribes) STs 11.7%. The general category (forward castes, some Muslims, and other religious minorities) was placed at 16% of the population.
BJP on the backfoot
The BJP will be disappointed with the downfall of its Telangana unit over the past year. After winning a series of bypolls and performing well in the Hyderabad municipal elections, the party seems to have lost focus and direction.
Its subdued mood is largely due to the removal of Bandi Sanjay as the state president, apparently under pressure from other senior leaders like Eatala Rajender. Sanjay, an MP from Karimnagar, was responsible for the party’s growing footprint after having injected a brand of aggressive communal rhetoric that was, so far, absent in the state. While Union minister G. Kishan Reddy has been roped in to replace him, the move spells damage control more than strategic reshuffle.
Sanjay’s removal also highlights a problem that the BJP is facing in several states: there is a vacuum of leaders who can work with the party’s national leadership while also addressing state-level concerns.
BJP leader Bandi Sanjay. Photo: X/@bandisanjay_bjp
Therefore, the party may – as it has in Madhya Pradesh – field Sanjay (a Lok Sabha member) and Kishan Reddy (a Union minister) and other MPs in the assembly polls. There are also suggestions that MLA Raja Singh, who was suspended from the party for derogatory comments on Prophet Muhammad, could be welcomed back.
Others in the fray
The All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) has its own constituency, restricted to the Old City of Hyderabad. It is expected to bag seven seats like it has in the past two elections. While the party has attempted to expand beyond its home turf by participating in assembly elections in states like Bihar, West Bengal, and Gujarat, it has been content to restrict itself to the Old City in Telangana. There is a tacit agreement between Owaisi and KCR – and the Hyderabad MP has thrown his weight behind the Telangana chief minister after the BRS manifesto was released.
Other parties like the Telugu Desam Party and YSR Telangana Party (formed by YSR’s daughter Sharmila) are in the fray but not seen to be material to the main contest. They are not expected to have any direct say in the outcome, but could well play spoilsport if they are able to split a significant chunk of the anti-incumbency vote.
