New Delhi: Voting is underway across 119 assembly constituencies in Telangana. A total of 3.26 crore eligible voters will exercise their franchise across 35,655 polling stations in the state. As many as 2,290 contestants are in the fray, the results of which will be declared on December 3, along with those in four other states.
The big picture that has emerged from the southern state is that it appears to be a straight contest between seemingly nervous Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) and a resurgent Congress party. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), going by various surveys, could well emerge as the kingmaker by eating into the anti-BRS vote. The All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), like always, could well be on its way to retaining its base in the Old City of Hyderabad.
Illustration: Pariplab Chakraborty
Even as we inched closer to the election date, pollsters have found it difficult to call the election in favour of any party. They expect a close fight between the BRS and Congress. Some surveys even do not rule out the possibility of a hung assembly.
A nervous BRS
The BRS, which claims the sole credit for achieving statehood in 2014, has been in power for nearly 10 years. With K. Chandrashekhar Rao (KCR) at the helm, it has rolled out a slew of welfare measures and undertaken a number of development initiatives. According to BRS, it has been able to bring about a positive turnaround in the lives of people through equal thrust on welfare and development.
By announcing its candidates almost three months back in August, the BRS was the first to hit the campaign trail, way ahead of others. Confident of winning a third term, the party has repeated almost all of its sitting MLAs, except for seven seats. The party’s narrative this election season has been around welfare schemes as well as ‘successes’ the state has seen in the power and irrigation sectors.
On the flip side, the party has come under severe criticism from those who have been left out of welfare schemes. Welfare schemes, in a way, could prove counterproductive for the BRS given that there are a large number who are eligible yet have been left out. This has become particularly evident in schemes such as Dalit Bandhu and double-bedroom housing.
Another major criticism against BRS has been the perceived vice-grip KCR’s family holds on the levers of administration in the state and its alleged corruption. Many of the BRS MLAs are also accused of corruption in their constituencies. People on the ground allege that ruling party MLAs have been prioritising their cronies in welfare schemes.
Widespread anger among unemployed youth in the state is palpable, and joblessness has emerged as the key poll issue. Paper leaks during the conduct of recruitment exams and failure to fill vacancies in government departments have most youth disappointed with the KCR government.
The perception of BRS being in a tacit understanding with the BJP, on the one hand, and the AIMIM, on the other hand, could work against it among the Muslim and Christian minorities in the state.
A resurgent Congress
The Congress, which was down and out about six months ago, has made a surprising comeback. Since the party’s victory in Karnataka in May, cadres and leaders in Telangana have received new vigour to go to the hustings. Besides a morale boost, the Karnataka victory has helped the party to strengthen its financial and organisational muscle to take on the BRS.
Congress leaders Mallu Bhatti Vikramarka, Revanth Reddy, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, Rahul Gandhi, among others. Photo: Twitter/@INCIndia
On the other hand, the BJP’s decline following the removal of Bandi Sanjay as the Telangana unit chief in July this year is also being seen as a shot in the arm for the Congress. The loss of momentum for the BJP has helped Congress to successfully drive home the point that only Congress can dethrone the BRS.
The Congress’s messaging has been around two planks: one, on maarpu (change), and two, by projecting itself as Telangana ichchina party (the party that granted statehood).
The party’s manifesto also seems to have worked in developing a positive perception of itself. On the lines of its Karnataka manifesto, the party has announced six ‘guarantees’ to the voters of Telangana. In fact, the BRS, aware of the damage potential of the Congress’s manifesto, sought to outshine the Congress through its own manifesto.
The party is hopeful of support from youth and government job aspirants; those left out of welfare schemes; and government employees who have been waiting for long for interim relief, restoration of the Old Pension Scheme, and Pay Revision Commission (PRC). Additionally, both Muslim and Christian minorities could also rally behind the Congress due to its effective messaging that the BRS and BJP are two sides of the same coin.
However, the party faces a challenge on two fronts: BRS’s effective poll management and BJP’s possible role as a spoilsport.
Kingmaker BJP?
The BJP’s fortunes over the last six months have diminished drastically. The momentum it had built with victories in multiple bypolls and its stellar performance in the election to the Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation (GHMC) had given rise to a perception that it was the principal challenger to the incumbent BRS. However, the easing out of Sanjay as the state party chief, factionalism in the state leadership, and the perception that the central leadership is soft on the BRS have resulted in its momentum being fizzled out. Various surveys indicate that it could emerge as a distant third.
However, the party is hopeful of giving a tough fight in several constituencies, thereby affecting Congress’s prospects. In particular, it is expected to face a stiff fight for anti-BRS votes in about 20 seats, including in Korutla, LB Nagar, Bodhan, Kamareddy, Nirmal, Maheshwaram, and in a few handful of seats of the Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation (GHMC). With a hung assembly not ruled out, the BJP believes that it would be in a position to emerge as the kingmaker.
