Omar Rashid 
New Delhi: Adityanath has much reason to cheer as a the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) alliance led by him won seven out of the nine seats in the Uttar Pradesh bypolls, including a shocking one-side contest in Muslim-concentrated Kundarki constituency in Moradabad where the Opposition had demanded a re-poll following large-scale complaints of communally-targeted voter suppression.
The BJP alliance retained the five seats it had won in 2022 and wrested two from the Samajwadi Party (SP). The result came as a big boost to chief minister Adityanath who had campaigned extensively for the bypolls, and put his own political reputation at stake with the polarising slogan ‘katenge toh batenge (will get slaughtered, if divided)’ aimed at consolidating Hindu voters on the basis of religion.
Adityanath projected the BJP’s victory on seven seats and close contests in two others, as an endorsement of his Hindu polarisation strategy. The larger battle on the nine seats had turned into a contest between the BJP’s attempts to consolidate Hindus across castes and the SP’s strategy to mobilise together marginalised Hindu castes and Muslims.
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“Batenge toh katenge, ek rahenge, safe rahenge,” said Adityanath after the results, which he described as a testimony to the people’s “unwavering faith in the successful leadership and guidance” of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
“This victory is the result of the security, good governance and public welfare policies of the double engine government and the tireless hard work of dedicated workers,” Adityanath said at the BJP’s state headquarters in Lucknow.
His opponent and SP president Akhilesh Yadav appeared surprised by the results and blamed it on the alleged misuse of administrative power by the government on polling day. Yadav said the bypolls in Uttar Pradesh had witnessed the “most distorted form of electoral politics.”
“The tactics of those who have made ‘election’ synonymous with ‘corruption’ have been captured in photographs and exposed before the world. Falsehood may have its time but not an era,” said Yadav.
The former Uttar Pradesh chief minister, who campaigned with the strategy of PDA (Pichda Dalit Alpsankhyak), accused the BJP of a “naked display of power” and snatching the democratic rights of people.
The most baffling result was in Kundari where the BJP candidate Ramveer Singh secured almost 77% votes defeating SP’s Mohammad Rizwan by almost 1.45 lakh votes. Rizwan, a former two-time MLA, could barely cross 11% votes. Kundarki has a high concentration of Muslim voters and has had a Muslim legislator since 1996.
The last time a Hindu won from there was in 1993. That was the only time the BJP ever won the seat. Therefore, the result raises questions on how the BJP managed to not only defeat the SP candidate in an unfavourable demographic situation but also reduced his vote share to below 12%.
What’s even more remarkable about the bypoll result in Kundarki is that in the same fixture in 2017, when the BJP was in the ascendancy and the SP going through its worst political crisis, Rizwan defeated Singh by more than 10,000 votes, securing 1.10 lakh votes (42%). In contrast, this time Rizwan could manage only around 25,580 votes. In 2022, SP’s Zia-ur-Rehman Barq, an MP today, had got 1.25 lakh votes and won the seat by a margin of 43,162 votes.
The bypolls were marred by allegations of administrative misuse and use of police to prevent Opposition party voters from casting their votes. In the middle of the voting on November 20, Rizwan wrote to the Election Commission of India demanding that the election in Kundarki be cancelled and the election be held afresh. Rizwan had alleged that only Hindus were being allowed to cast their votes while Muslims were met with a storm of lathis from the administration.
After voting on all nine seats, the SP’s top leadership had demanded repoll in Meerapur, Kundarki and Shishamau under the supervision of paramilitary forces, alleging that Muslim voters were prevented from casting their vote. “The by-elections held in Uttar Pradesh yesterday were between the Samajwadi Party and the district officials and police officers of the respective areas and not between the SP and the BJP,” said Ram Gopal Yadav, SP general secretary, a day after voting. The SP had also written to the UP chief election officer demanding a re-poll on 52 booths in Meerapur.
The results bring encouraging signs for the BJP. The party won Ghaziabad and Khair (Aligarh) seats comfortably, as expected, scripted a major upset in Katehari in Ambedkar Nagar, put up a strong fight in SP strongholds of Karhal (Mainpuri) and Shishamau (Kanpur) and just managed to cross the finish line in Phulpur (Prayagraj) and Majhawan (Mirzapur). The BJP’s ally Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) won in Meerapur in Muzaffarnagar by a comfortable margin.
The SP managed to hold on to its stronghold of Karhal, defeating the BJP by 14,725 votes, a reduced margin from 2022 when the party won by more than 67,500 votes. The SP also defeated the BJP in Shishamau seat in Kanpur by 8,564 votes. Naseem Solanki, the SP candidate is the wife of Irfan Solanki, the MLA who was disqualified after being convicted in a criminal case. In Shishamau, too, the SP’s victory margin was reduced in comparison to 2022.
In Meerapur, the SP’s candidate Sumbul Rana was hurt by the AIMIM and Aazad Samaj Party (Kanshiram) whose candidates, both Muslims, together polled more votes (41,530) than the margin of loss (30,796). The SP’s gambit of fielding a Dalit in Ghaziabad, an unreserved seat, did not pay dividends as the BJP retained the seat by a big margin. The party, however, could win Majhawan by a thin margin of 4,922 votes and Phulpur by 11,305 votes, providing hope to the Opposition for the future.
The results also boost the spirits of Adityanath who campaigned extensively during the bypolls to salvage his own political standing and future.
After the dismal performance in the general election, Adityanath was under the scanner and there were questions raised over his political future. His deputy and internal rival Keshav Prasad Maurya was among those who voiced dissent by declaring that “the organisation is bigger than the government, always was and will be.” The perceived disharmony between the two leaders was seen as a cause for concern for the party.
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However, after the results, in a victory celebration at the Lucknow office of the BJP, Maurya credited the victory to the BJP’s organization and the government under the “revolutionary leadership” of Adityanath.
With 13 rallies and two roadshows, Adityanath had sweated it out during the bypolls as the results had the potential to decide his political stature in coming days after the Lok Sabha election debacle. Adityanath addressed two rallies each in Katehari, Phulpur, Khair and Majhawan. In Kundarki, Karhal and Meerapur, he held a rally each. He also addressed a rally and a roadshow each in Ghaziabad and Shishamau.
Adityanath started campaigning in these constituencies through government events much before the elections were declared. He distributed tablets, loans and job appointment letters in ‘rogzar melas’ during his visit to these nine districts in August and September. During his extensive tours, Adityanath launched or inaugurated 8,822 development projects worth Rs 5,755 crore in these nine constituencies alone.