The Enduring Appeal of Nitish Kumar

New Delhi: The National Democratic Alliance (NDA)'s resounding victory in the Bihar assembly polls is demonstrative proof of the sway that incumbent chief minister Nitish Kumar has on large swathes of the electorate in Bihar.

The outcome is also a reminder of Nitish's great ability to bounce back from reverses.

The backing of a great majority of social forces and his signature quality of adapting to changing circumstances is what makes him indispensable as the most important political pole in India’s poorest state.

In 2020, Nitish faced his worst setback when his party, the Janata Dal (United), ended up with its worst-ever figure since coming to power in 2005 of 43 seats. Through the course of the last five years as chief minister, Nitish accommodated Chirag Paswan, because of whom he lost a substantial number of seats and who had also opened an inimical front against him in spite of him being firmly placed in the NDA.

Nitish also addressed the unease around economic stagnation among his supporters through a range of new welfare measures – to the extent where he doubled up on his social security measures for women but also promised a 35% reservation for them in the state police. He also opened up vacancies in the government and even distributed job certificates in public functions to offset the widespread disenchantment against him for not generating enough employment.

But above all, he has an emotional connection with his supporters. The more the opposition attacks him, the more he consolidates support, as was seen in the way he consolidated his ground further when he faced brickbats over his ability to govern because of his failing health.

The biggest reason why Nitish endures is his conduct. One of his EBC supporters in Bihar recently told me over the phone that Nitish is currently winning over the sympathy of his supporters like never before. His silence was seen as a sign of stoic strength rather than as him ‘lacking’ a retort to his opponents.

Also read: As Nitish Fades, the BJP Waits – But Its Hindutva May Not Fill His Mandal Shoes

Over many years, when both the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the BJP showed aggression in pushing their agendas, Nitish quietly put his head down and projected himself as the only one invested in governance. And that has kept him in good stead as he is perceived as the only leader who doesn’t excite you with polarising issues, but stays committed to his job as chief minister, doling out social security measures from time to time.

Of course, Nitish has deliberately cultivated his public personality. But his quietness and introvertedness also reflect the urge among the non-dominant communities, whose committed support he enjoys, to be kept out of daily power struggles on the ground. Nitish is their figurehead and their only representative.

In 2020, Nitish had to bear the brunt of anger that many sections of the poor felt because of the COVID-19 lockdown, the loss of jobs and the clouds of uncertainty staring at them. The mismanagement in handling returning migrants, his recent switch to the NDA after having won the 2015 elections as part of the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan (MGB) and a general sense of fear had their impact on his performance.

But 2025 was different. Not only did Nitish quietly lead the NDA ship, he also brought all its constituents together to consolidate his social base. He did these with confidence after already using his administrative skills to appease disenchanted sections among his supporters.

Such was the consolidation that the MGB was left with little more than its traditional Muslim-Yadav support. As the results show, even that ‘M-Y’ support didn’t stick together.

The All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen’s victory in five seats, after its winners in 2020 switched over to the RJD, indicates that Muslims expect much more than traditional secular parties when it comes to promises of keeping the BJP away from power. They want a voice, they also want a say.

Unlike Nitish, who fully reorganised the NDA, the MGB appeared to struggle to define its larger ideological perspective in the way Lalu Prasad Yadav could successfully do. Tejashwi Yadav’s aggression appeared immature in front of Nitish and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s political experience, and may have been interpreted as a reflection of the Yadav community’s propensity to monopolise both politics and resources.

The lack of a proper alternative in the MGB, which in the run-up to the elections displayed friction and indecisiveness, paled in front of Nitish’s composure and assuredness.

In the end, the NDA increased its vote share by nearly six percentage points to around 47%. Not only did it mop up Chirag Paswan's 5% of the vote, it also secured another 4% swing that had scattered away from either of the two main political fronts. The NDA, as a result, led the MGB by nine percentage points, making the mandate decisive.

Contrastingly, the MGB's vote share dropped by one percentage point, from 39% to 38%, showing that none except the ‘M-Y’ wanted it to come to power.

While the NDA’s candidates represented a wider section of the population including EBCs and Mahadalits, the MGB fielded a majority of its candidates from Yadav and some other dominant communities.

The Bihar outcome is as much a victory for Nitish as it is for the NDA. The BJP may have ended up as the single largest party, but it very well understands that this wouldn’t have been possible without Nitish’s approval.

The elections didn’t look like a wave, but the outcome indicates otherwise – one that was shaped by the enduring appeal of Nitish who, it appears, has a much longer run at office than anyone could have imagined.

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