Chennai: As Tamil Nadu heads toward the 2026 assembly elections, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) is battling a deep crisis of leadership and identity.

Under Edappadi K. Palaniswami (EPS), the party that once ruled Tamil Nadu for decades has endured ten consecutive electoral defeats, failing to regain direction since the death of J. Jayalalithaa in 2016.

Across Tamil Nadu, accusations have mounted that the party’s downfall is rooted in Palaniswami’s caste-centred politics, dominated by the Vellalar Gounder community. The growing perception is that EPS’s inner circle, largely drawn from his own caste, has alienated several traditional AIADMK vote bases, especially in the southern and northern districts.

Will these setbacks force Palaniswami to shift strategy and move beyond caste politics before 2026?

The party’s anti-caste legacy

"Ondru Engal Jaathiye, Ondru Engal Needhiye, Ulaikkum Makkal Yaavarum Oruvar Petra Makkale.” means, “One is our caste, one is our justice; all working people are children of the same mother.”

This line, from M.G. Ramachandran’s (MGR) 1964 film Panakkara Kudumbam (The Rich Family), defined the egalitarian spirit that shaped the AIADMK.

In another film, Pallandu Vaazhga, MGR sang, “Ondre Kulam Endru Paaduvom, Oruvane Devan Endru Potruvom.” means “Let us sing that there is only one clan; let us praise that there is only one God.”

That philosophy, ‘one clan, one God’, was central to the Dravidian movement led by C.N. Annadurai, under whom MGR learnt politics. After decades in the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), MGR split over ideological differences and founded the AIADMK in 1972. Five years later, in 1977, he led the new party to a landslide victory and became Tamil Nadu’s Chief Minister.

MGR did not speak about equality and social justice only in his films. As a Chief Minister, MGR gave his ideals administrative form. In 1978, to mark Periyar’s birth centenary, he ordered the removal of caste names from all streets and public places, a symbolic yet decisive blow against caste segregation.

The shift under EPS: Power concentrated in one caste

MGR’s successor, J. Jayalalithaa, though from the Brahmin community, upheld inclusivity in governance. In Salem (Sangagiri consituency), a Kongu Vellalar-dominated region, she fielded P. Dhanapal, a Scheduled Caste candidate, in the 2001 Assembly elections.

When it came to light that some AIADMK members from the Gounder community had refused to eat food served by Dhanapal, Jayalalithaa upon returning to power that same year, appointed him as Food Minister and later elevated him to Speaker of the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly.

Under both MGR and Jayalalithaa, AIADMK projected itself as a party beyond caste and religion. Neither allowed any single community to dominate the organisation or define its ideology.

That image has changed dramatically in the Palaniswami era. Party insiders and political observers alike allege that AIADMK has become dominated by the Kongu Vellalar Gounder community, with Palaniswami himself accused of appointing caste loyalists to top organisational roles.

This consolidation, they say, has weakened the party’s traditional base among the Thevar, Mukkulathor, and Dalit communities in southern and northern Tamil Nadu.

Ten straight defeats… A historical low

Since taking charge after the demise of Jayalalithaa, Palaniswami has led the AIADMK through ten straight major defeats.

In 2019 Lok Sabha elections. DMK-led alliance swept all 39 Tamil Nadu constituencies, a crushing loss for the ruling AIADMK. 2019 by-elections (22 Assembly seats) and 2020 local body polls ended in further setbacks. In the 2021 Assembly elections, AIADMK lost power to the DMK. Subsequent rural and urban local body polls (2021–2022), the 2023 Erode East bypoll, and the Kanyakumari Lok Sabha by-election (2020) all ended in defeat.

The 2024 Lok Sabha election deepened the crisis more, AIADMK lost all 40 seats (including Puducherry). Party lost deposti in 7 constituencies of Southern TN such as South Chennai, Theni, Kanyakumari, Thoothukudi, Vellore, Puducherry, and Tirunelveli the party lost deposits, a first in its modern history. It slipped to third place in nine constituencies, winning only 20.46% of votes, down from 44.92% under Jayalalitha in 2014.

While multiple factors contribute to these defeats, former senior AIADMK leaders say the party’s caste-based politics remain the primary reason.

‘Caste politics has ruined the party’

Speaking to The Wire, C.R. Saraswathi, spokesperson of T.T.V. Dhinakaran’s Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK) said, “When MGR and Jayalalithaa led AIADMK, no one could say the party belonged to a particular caste. Even councillors and ministers were chosen based on loyalty and merit, not by the community. Jayalalithaa turned ordinary workers into MLAs. She never looked at caste or religion. But Palaniswami’s open caste politics has pushed the party to the ground.”

“Disillusioned by Palaniswami’s caste-based approach, voters have punished him,” she said.

Saraswathi cited data to show how caste alienation has cost AIADMK dearly.

“In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the AIADMK once a Dravidian powerhouse lost its deposits in seven southern constituencies, moreover, the party slipped to third place in nine constituencies, managing to secure only 20.46 percent of votes overall a steep fall from the 44.92 percent vote share Jayalalithaa achieved in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.

“By ousting leaders like O. Panneerselvam, Dhinakaran, and V.K. Sasikala, and replacing inclusive leadership with caste driven politics, Palaniswami has alienated the AIADMK’s traditional base. If he continues on this path, the party will face severe setbacks not only in southern, northern Tamil Nadu but across all regions in the upcoming 2026 Assembly elections,” Saraswathi warned.

‘There was no caste politics before EPS’

Caste politics was never part of the AIADMK before Palaniswami took charge, says K.C. Palanisamy, a former Member of Parliament and long-time supporter of both M.G. Ramachandran (MGR) and J. Jayalalithaa.

Speaking to The Wire, Palanisamy said, “During the leadership of MGR and Jayalalithaa, AIADMK provided equal opportunities to people from all communities. I have never witnessed such intense caste-based decision-making as we see today. Under Jayalalithaa, members from various communities like Vanniyar, Thevar, Mutharaiyar, Dalit, and Nadar held key positions in the cabinet.

“Now, because of Palaniswami’s aggressive Gounder-centric politics, members of all other communities are deeply frustrated. I myself am a Gounder, but I can’t support this narrow politics,” he added.

Palanisamy pointed out that the Kongu belt, once considered the AIADMK’s ‘iron fortress’ has begun to crumble under caste polarisation.

“In the Kongu region AIADMK’s strength was never built by Gounders alone, the members of other castes consistently supported the party. But today, even the Kongu Vellalar Gounders stronghold is showing resentment. The very region once hailed as the ‘fortress’ of the AIADMK is now ruled by the DMK.

“In recent Lok Sabha elections and even in the previous local body urban polls the AIADMK suffered severe setbacks in the Kongu region. The fortress has been shattered. If the party doesn’t abandon caste politics, it will face further crushing defeats in the future. I’ve been warning this on every public platform, Edappadi is practising divisive caste politics, and unless he changes course, the party will face serious decline.”

Expelled leaders like Sasikala, Dhinakaran, and Panneerselvam have accused Palaniswami of turning AIADMK into a power base of the Kongu Vellalar Gounder community. Their charges are now echoed by figures across Tamil Nadu’s political spectrum.

However, senior AIADMK leaders and former ministers S.P. Velumani and Thangamani often described as the twin ‘power centres’ of the party, have dismissed the allegations, calling them politically motivated.

To reclaim moral ground, Palaniswami has launched a state-wide campaign titled “Makkalai Kaappom, Tamilagathai Meettpom” (Protect the People, Save Tamil Nadu). He insists that the AIADMK stands for all communities and remains secular and inclusive.

Caste alone doesn’t decide votes

Senior journalist R.K. Radhakrishnan told The Wire, “During Jayalalithaa’s tenure, there were complaints and allegations that the AIADMK was under the influence of the Mukkulathor community through Sasikala and Dhinakaran networks. 

Today, with Panneerselvam and Dhinakaran out from the party, it cannot be assumed that caste-based votes in the northern districts will automatically diminish. That is because Palaniswami has been fielding AIADMK leaders from Nadar, Mukkulathor, and Thevar communities in elections to replace them.”

He added: “Despite all these changes, the AIADMK still remains a viable political entity. Caste alone cannot determine the outcome of elections, but caste plays a role.”

‘Ten defeats Palaniswami’ – Caste Politics Could Cost AIADMK in 2026!

AIADMK coordination committee member Bengaluru Pugazhendi warns that Palaniswami’s caste-centric approach is splintering voter support.

Speaking to The Wire, he recalled that even though MGR was called a Malayali and Jayalalithaa an Iyer, neither allowed caste to dictate party politics. Both promoted leaders from all communities equally.

“I’ve studied data from the last ten election defeats. Palaniswami’s refusal to respect or prioritize different communities, and his open caste politics, incompetent strategies has led to instances in his home constituency of Salem where candidates secured just a single digit vote in some booths. Ten consecutive defeats earned him the label ‘Ten-Defeat Palaniswami,” Pugazhendi said.

He added that voters from other communities are politically confused, unsure which party to support, which is splintering AIADMK’s vote share.

“Long-time AIADMK supporters from non-gounder communities are politically adrift. In 2026, their votes may scatter. They may even shift to actor Vijay’s TVK party or Seeman’s Naam Tamilar party. Palaniswami’s caste politics, coupled with the removal of key leaders, has created conditions that make opposition victories easier,” he said.

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Pugazhendi warned that unless the party reconciles with defected leaders and abandons caste-based politics, AIADMK could lose deposits in multiple constituencies in the 2026 elections.

The Wire reached out to AIADMK election secretary and Pollachi MLA Jeyaraman, as well as former ministers K.P. Munusamy and Sengottaiyan, for comment. But, they declined to respond.

The questions remain unanswered. Can AIADMK recover from a decade of defeats? Will Palaniswami abandon the party’s Gounder-centric image? In the 2026 Assembly elections, will the party reclaim its former dominance, or will 2026 add one more chapter to his losing streak?

Only time will tell.

Prasanth Shanmugasundaram is a multimedia journalist based in Tamil Nadu.

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