Sidharth Bhatia 
A joint platform of Opposition parties to fight the dominant BJP in the 2024 elections was always a chimera ― it has now become an idea that is faded into the distance. In the run-up to the 2019 elections, a similar idea was mooted and several meetings of leaders of the key parties were held, but nothing came of it.
This time round, there is, so far, not even a pretence that a front of the larger regional parties will be possible. They seem to be either drifting even more apart or are criticising their putative partners for perfidy in regional elections. Besides, the Congress, which has an all-India footprint, is considered a rival, if not an enemy, and parties like the TMC and AAP don’t want to have anything to do with it. No unity will be possible without its presence.
Meanwhile, Opposition leaders face enquiries from investigative agencies ― Manish Sisodia, former deputy chief minister of Delhi, has been arrested by the CBI, Sanjay Raut, a vocal critic of the BJP, was in jail a while ago, and others face enquiries. No one has the time or the inclination to summon an Opposition meeting.
Also read: Can Manish Sisodia’s Arrest Finally Unite India’s Opposition?
West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee has already declared that her TMC will fight the 2024 elections alone. This was after the TMC candidate lost in Sagardighi to the Congress, supported by the CPI(M). Both parties, she said, had a tacit understanding with the BJP to defeat the TMC. It’s quite a conspiracy theory, but if an Opposition front is cobbled together at all, the crucial TMC will be absent.
Similarly, the AAP has never committed to any united platform, despite showing up for photo-ops of Opposition leaders holding hands in solidarity, and the venerable Odisha CM Naveen Patnaik has always kept his distance from any such proposal. Where does K. Chandrashekhar Rao of Telangana stand, and Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy of Andhra Pradesh? They may make their preferences clear closer to the elections, as will a few others.
Now, a further fault line is visible ― eight Opposition parties have signed a letter protesting against the arrest of Manish Sisodia but three, including the Congress, haven’t.
At the moment, if a straw poll were taken among Opposition leaders about a firm yes to forming a group including the Congress, only the Shiv Sena (Uddhav group), the DMK, the Rashtriya Janata Dal of Bihar, Janata Dal(S) in Karnataka and the National Conference in Kashmir would commit. And for that to happen, the Congress cannot hope to have its way in seat sharing. Hardly a formidable united front.
Long ago, the Congress was the overwhelming political presence in India and every now and then, various parties used to cobble together some conglomeration or the other, which sometimes included both left and right parties, like the CPI(M) and the BJP. Anti-Congressism was an ideology of sorts, which provided the glue for the others to coalesce around, though it is also true that no non-Congress government ever lasted more than a few months. Atal Bihari Vajpayee, after two false starts in the late 1990s, managed to break that jinx, again with the support of a wide range of smaller parties. The Congress then returned to power.
Narendra Modi in 2014 and 2019 has not just shown that the BJP can win on its own steam but in the process, has demolished the Congress. Now, without a central countervailing force to attract the smaller players, and each regional party with its own agendas and aspirations, a united entity seems almost impossible.
Also read: As Fresh Calls for Opposition Unity Emerge from Bihar, Will the Congress Join Forces?
Besides, the BJP has a formidable combination of forces on its side, including money and executive power, which is powered by full-throated media support and led by an easily identifiable and ubiquitous ‘face ― Narendra Modi ― who misses no opportunity to project himself.
While the Opposition parties have none of these advantages, what’s notable is the inability and unwillingness of those parties to find common ground and work out a strategy that will put the BJP on notice.
Predicting electoral outcomes is always a hazardous task and there are still many state elections to go before 2024. Much can change, and change in a few days, and the general elections are still more than a year away. For the moment, however, it looks like those polls will be another one-sided contest with a result that is almost predestined.