The INDIA alliance may not be as dead after all as the Godi news channels – (are there any others now?) – never tire of blaring at us.
Come to think of it, West Bengal was always a tough ask, with no one in any doubt that it is the Trinamool Congress (TMC) that is best poised to keep the saffron party in check.
Nor does it seem that the lack of a formal tie-up with the Congress in the state is set to damage its prospects to any countable extent.
It is also possible that many voters not formally aligned with the ruling TMC but inimical to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) may cross over to it on their own sensible volition.
Speaking of the neighbouring state of Bihar, it does not appear to be the case that Nitish Kumar’s trudge back to the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is likely to boost the prospects of the ruling alliance to any considerable extent.
If anything, the revulsion at the grassroots level against endless, unprincipled tumbles at the top may have reached a tipping point in Bihar, where, significantly, employment afforded to hundreds of thousands of teachers recently is generally recognised as a Tejashwi-RJD (Rashtriya Janata Dal) accomplishment.
On March 3, the Mahagathbandhan alliance is due to make a joint public appearance at a rally where Lalu Prasad Yadav, Tejashwi Yadav, Sitaram Yechury, other left leaders of the Communist Party of India (Marxist–Leninist), and Rahul Gandhi are set to hold hands on the podium.
It seems certain that the NDA will drop its tally in Bihar to a substantial extent.
Uttar Pradesh, of course, now brings the best news for the INDIA alliance.
With everything that has happened during the second Modi term, it seems a giveaway that the minority Muslim vote will go over to the Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance as never before, without being taken in by some canny reach-outs to the Muslim sections by the BJP.
There is a return to the general old sentiment that the Congress may indeed have done little for the Muslim masses over long years, but during the Congress era, they were never made to feel that they were not as good Indians as any.
There is intriguing speculation among Kshatriya Hindus that if the BJP secures a majority, Yogi Adityanath, who belongs to their community, may be ousted from his position.
It has never been a secret that there has never been any love lost between him and the Union home minister.
According to reports from reliable journalists and knowledgeable social thinkers, if this speculation were to gain force, the Thakurs may turn on the ruling BJP, if only to ensure Yogi’s continuance in Uttar Pradesh.
It is anticipated that Brahmins who have been feeling rather left out by the Yogi regime may split, and a sizable number may do a walk back to their old love, the Congress.
As to Nitish Kumar, it is more a myth than a reality that he has any hold among the Kurmis in Uttar Pradesh.
And, reports suggest that deals between Kurmis and leaders of some ‘Extremely Backward Castes’ with the BJP are still in the doldrums.
Meanwhile, the Congress and AAP have announced seat-sharing arrangements for Delhi, Haryana, Gujarat, Goa, and Chandigarh for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, while deciding to fight solo in Punjab. This has ended months of speculation surrounding its fate within the INDIA alliance.
Separately, from reliable reports, the BJP/NDA faces a grim prospect in Haryana, and cannot hope to win all the seats this time around – not by a stretch.
Nor has the INDIA alliance in Maharashtra come apart, despite withering assaults from the ruling camp.
Even in Maharashtra, amidst new troubles over reservations for the Marathas, which seem to have failed in assuaging their discontent, the BJP/NDA seems in no position to improve its tally, and in fact, may lose some.
Karnataka, likewise, offers little hope to the ruling alliance of not losing many of the seats it had won the last time around. Not to speak of the rest of the southern states.
Of the 25 seats in the North-East, in Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Gujarat, the BJP/NDA can only lose seats rather than gain any, being already at saturation numbers.
And Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Odisha may not help the BJP offset those losses either.
Should the INDIA alliance in the coming days reach out to disgruntled groups here, there, elsewhere, and work to seal prospects in Jammu and Kashmir, other Union territories, Himachal Pradesh, and the North-East with intelligent negotiation, it may not stand to scrutiny that the BJP will garner anything more than 240 seats overall.
Also read: Despite a Hollow Poll Narrative, What Makes the BJP So Confident of a Landslide Victory?
In fact, were the Congress to improve its strike rate in the 200 or so seats, in which it is the chief contestant against the BJP by even ten percentage points, the latter may not hope with any reason to reach anywhere close to a majority number.
It is by now obvious that the euphoria around the Ram Temple has had a limited remit within the Hindi heartland.
Nor have the controversies surrounding Modi’s role in the religious consecration of the idol quite been snuffed out even among well-disposed Hindu voters.
Equally, issues related to prices, joblessness, sectarian hate, venality in garnering funds, and stealing elections, most of all the fate of the farming community that number a half of all Indians have not gone away.
As of today, it may be said that a real contest is in the offing, contrary to the hype that all is done and dusted.
Remarkably, it is the EVM machine that seems to occupy the attention among a wide swathe of voters.
Clearly, following the shameless episode of official vote tampering in the Chandigarh mayoral elections, all caught on camera, and roundly castigated by the top court, the Election Commission (EC) would do well to leave no stone unturned to uphold the great reputation garnered for the republic by some of India’s outstanding ECs of yesteryears.
The coming parliamentary elections are seen worldwide as something more than just a routine exercise. Its conduct and consequence may determine how seriously the Indian republic is viewed as a credible democracy.
Badri Raina taught at Delhi University.
