Amid the buzz about twists in the Haryana elections and the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP’s) surprise win, the political pundits are ignoring the larger significance of the electoral outcome in Jammu and Kashmir, especially Kashmir which deserves much more air time and space in newspapers.
After Ayodhya, the BJP’s Kashmir debacle is one of its most significant defeats anywhere in the country. While the surprising defeat in the BJP stronghold, Ayodhya sent ripples through the political circles, the voters in Kashmir outrightly rejecting the BJP and even their supposed proxies although not entirely surprising is equally significant.
While the Modi factor might have still worked in some parts of Jammu region, people did not vote for the abrogation of the constitutional guarantees for the state is evident from the defeat of BJP state president Ravinder Raina, considered as the most vociferous advocate of the same. Raina’s constituency Nowshera assembly segment was considered to be a safe seat for the party.
The outcome of the polls which were conducted after a hiatus of 10 years, shows that Kashmir has still not reconciled with the downgrading of the state, the voting pattern in Kashmir is consistent and against BJP. Meanwhile, Jammu has been left divided between pro-BJP Hindu-dominated six districts and four mixed-population districts of Chenab Valley and Pir Panchal, each voting in a different manner.
After the Supreme Court’s ruling upholding the decision to abrogate Article 370 taken by the centre without taking into account any representation from the state, the electoral outcome is Kashmir’s message to the rest of the country that the decision was forced on them and was totally against their will.
If Ayodhya’s Ram Janmabhoomi Temple was a cornerstone of the BJP’s politics, abrogation of Article 370 has also been the ruling party’s poll plank for decades.
The unilateral decision and the subsequent clampdown on Kashmir — the people and politicians — had left the region with a bitter taste. With no assembly in place, the people felt their voices remained unheard. The thumping majority to the INDIA bloc and especially the landslide victory of the National Conference (NC) reiterated that the BJP’s trump cards have failed to get people of the affected state on board.
While the culmination of both these issues was a shot in the arm for BJP’s majoritarian politics in the rest of the country, it failed to work for the people in whose names the entire political narrative was woven.
The BJP attempted to paint the reading down of Article 370 as a popular move in the name of development. They called it the end of the political dominance of the Abdullah and Mufti families.
Even if the party wanted people to believe otherwise, the BJP knew Kashmir was not their constituency. The BJP fielded 19 candidates from 47 constituencies in Kashmir Valley, and none of them could even make it to the race. The saffron party was left with zero seats in Kashmir and a negligible vote share.
Also read: The NC-Congress Alliance in J&K Has a (Very Few) Hindu MLAs Problem
What however might be surprising for the decision-makers in the party is that they misread the political acumen of a common Kashmiri. Not only did the voters reject the BJP, but they even gave a drubbing to people who had sided with the party pre or post-abrogation.
One of the biggest casualties was Mehbooba Mufti’s People’s Democratic Party (PDP). The party could only win three seats while it was the single largest party in the last assembly elections. A few-second long video clip of PDP president Mehbooba Mufti sitting next to then Home Minister Rajnath Singh claiming “the youth dying in 2016 agitation were not innocent” was circulated as a crude reminder of the PDP’s politics when in alliance with the BJP.
The PDP’s breakaway faction Apni Party and its president Altaf Bhukari, who chose to align with the BJP after the parent party decided to part ways with the saffron party, could not even open an account despite extensive campaigning.
People’s Party’s Sajad Lone and Engineer Rashid’s Awami Itihad Party managed to retain their traditional single seat. Rashid, who generated interest after defeating NC leader Omar Abdullah in Lok Sabha elections a few months earlier, failed to translate the sympathy vote into popular vote this election.
However, while political pundits in TV studios got excited about the “Engineer factor”, the voters on the ground became sceptical following his release and formation of a political party. Rashid was criticised as being “BJP’s team B”.
Engineer’s alliance partner Jamaat-e-Islami which re-entered the election fray after more than three decades could not even open its account.
The party that was banned after 2019 was aiming to get the ban revoked by fielding their members as independent candidates.
The same was the case with former chief minister and erstwhile Congress leader Ghulam Nabi Azad. Although Azad stepped away from campaigning citing health reasons, he saw the defeat coming and even advised his party colleagues to do the same.
The voters in Kashmir made sure the vote was not divided as they saw the NC-Congress alliance as an answer to the divisive politics of the BJP. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra saw huge participation from common Kashmiris. It was one of the first political events celebrated across Kashmir post-August 2019.
The vote was also a clear mandate for the NC and more so Omar Abdullah. He has been consistent in criticising the BJP post reading down of Kashmir’s special status which has been a brainchild of his grandfather Sheikh Abdullah.
Omar Abdullah has also been seen as a leader, who has stood between any possible alliance with the BJP and the NC. He has also been able to generate support for the party in the important Pir Panjal region.
The electoral results are also significant in a way that Kashmir left no room for horse trading which was speculated when the smaller parties entered into the fray.
The conclusive vote made sure, the BJP didn’t get an edge despite gerrymandering in the name of delimitation, which increased the seats in the Jammu region.
However, the mandate has one very significant fallout. The results threw a picture of complete polarisation in the erstwhile state.
While the Muslim-majority region voted for the Kashmiri NC, Jammu voted for the BJP, which has opened up more questions than solved. Although, the BJP’s vote share has increased by over 3% and the saffron party got 29 seats against 25 in 2014, it has not made any headway in the Muslim-majority areas of Kashmir Valley, Chenab Valley and Pir Panjal region. This has inadvertently put the state on a powder keg of communal tensions which, due to rising militancy in the Jammu region, has all the elements of turning into a serious security threat.
While the electoral battles can be settled in the next elections, the rising tensions between communities and regions are a serious threat to peace in the region.
Getting the two regions of the state together and ensuring Hindu-dominated Jammu doesn’t feel left out would be a major challenge for the NC-led government, besides ensuring the people of Kashmir are not let down by putting the issue of abrogation and downgrading of the state on the back burner.
While the promise of the restoration of the special status seems like a lost battle, the NC has promised to pass a resolution condemning the revocation in the newly elected assembly. Not part of the manifesto but a commitment the party has made to the people of Kashmir.
Toufiq Rashid is a journalist who has covered the Kashmir conflict, health and wellbeing for top Indian newspapers for nearly two decades. She now works at @Pixstory.
