As the polls take off in Jammu and Kashmir, the political landscape is undergoing a major transformation. Several influential separatist leaders, including members of the banned group Jamaat-e-Islami, have entered mainstream politics and are now contesting the elections, posing a serious threat to the region’s traditional political figures.
This election, the first in a decade, comes at a time of significant political change, following the 2019 reading down of Article 370, which revoked J&K’s special status and led to its bifurcation into two Union Territories. Additionally, recent changes to business rules have further centralised power in the hands of the Lieutenant Governor, raising concerns about the future role of the assembly.
These elections will be a crucial test for both the Union government’s policies and the survival of regional parties.
From strategic alliances to the fight against incumbency, there is a brewing battle in J&K that will shape its politics for years to come. The BJP’s electoral campaign is heavily banking on granting Scheduled Tribe (ST) status to the Pahadi community, and amidst growing anti-incumbency, this is seen as its crucial battle to secure dominance in the region and validate its policies. Their outreach extends to reconciling with candidates, such as those in Surankote, who considered running independently, highlighting the extent to which the party is investing in controlling electoral outcomes.
Meanwhile, the opposition, particularly the National Conference and Congress alliance faces a fragmented political spectrum. The exclusion of the People’s Democratic from a pre-poll alliance risks splitting the anti-BJP vote, particularly in key constituencies such as Bahu and Surankote, thus complicating an electoral scenario that could have otherwise presented the opposition with a clear advantage.
Despite the excitement of the election, many voters are feeling a clear sense of political fatigue. Years of political instability, combined with the absence of a fully functioning legislative assembly and new business rules, have led many to question whether these elections hold any real significance. For them, the last few years have been marked by poorly conceived policies, unfulfilled promises, increased bureaucracy, rising unemployment, growing debt, and worsening security conditions.
BJP’s Crucial Battle
For the BJP, these elections are not just another contest but a crucial moment in its effort to cement its position on decisions taken on August 5, 2019 and thereafter. But the party faces significant challenges due to rising anti-incumbency and growing resentment in the region. The BJP’s promises of “Naya Kashmir” or new Kashmir have yet to materialise, and many voters feel disillusioned by the gap between the party’s rhetoric and the reality on the ground. In Jammu, local businesses like transport and industries have seen no growth. Thus, the BJP’s approach to the 2024 assembly elections can best be described as a do-or-die battle for political control.
The party’s determination is clear in its efforts to win back rebel candidates, such as Sohail Malik in Surankote, who chose to run as an independent. This shows the BJP’s focus on consolidating smaller factions to strengthen their hold on swing constituencies.
Despite these efforts, the BJP is struggling with strong anti-incumbency sentiments across the Jammu region. Many ask, if the party hasn’t brought meaningful change in the last six years, how can it be expected to do so in the next five? Public dissatisfaction is evident over issues like the Darbar Move, economic stagnation, lack of job opportunities, toll plazas, and the new excise policy. Recent changes to the business rules, which undermine regional autonomy, have further fuelled resentment and could weaken the BJP’s voter base.
Also read: The NC and the Congress’s Hubris Has Put Them – and All of Kashmir – in a Risky Place
While security remains a key concern, the people in the Jammu region have become more vocal about local grievances, particularly the failure of centralised policies like “Back to Village” along with excessive bureaucracy and governance inefficiencies. These frustrations may well be reflected in the upcoming assembly elections.
The proxy nature of politics in Jammu and Kashmir is evident in the BJP’s choice to support Apni Party candidates in the Pir Panjal region instead of fielding its own candidates in the Lok Sabha elections. Engineer Rashid, MP from Baramulla, has been granted interim bail until October 2. His presence is likely to intensify the atmosphere.
The BJP has struggled to gain a foothold in Kashmir, and regional parties view this move as an attempt to divide their support and weaken their base. The rise of new regional parties and changes to constituency boundaries have shifted the political landscape. In 2022, the delimitation process added six new assembly seats to Jammu and only one to Kashmir. This change has altered the demographics of many constituencies, especially in Jammu, leading to new dynamics in the electoral segment.
In this reconfigured landscape, voter sentiments are divided. In Jammu, some voters may still support the BJP’s promises of “development” and “security,” even though these issues have not been turned into concrete policies. However, this sentiment is not widespread in the Valley, where there is a clear sense of disenfranchisement. Traditional parties like the National Conference (NC) and the PDP are struggling to adapt to these changes and are under pressure from new players.
These elections will therefore be a key test of BJP rule in the Jammu region and the central government’s policies in Kashmir.
Fragmentation and the opposition’s struggles
The opposition in Jammu and Kashmir remains fragmented. The pre-poll alliance between the National Conference (NC) and Congress has notably excluded the PDP, a decision that could have far-reaching consequences for the election’s outcome. The exclusion of PDP risks splitting the anti-BJP vote across key constituencies, including Bahu, Rajauri and Surankote, where the opposition could have had a better chance with a united front. The lack of coordination between opposition parties has created an environment where multiple candidates are vying for the same pool of votes, diluting the chances of any single party securing a decisive victory.
This fragmentation is particularly problematic given the widespread public discontent against the ruling BJP. Despite the significant anti-incumbency wave, the opposition appears unable to harness this sentiment due to internal divisions and the absence of a cohesive electoral strategy. The NC-Congress alliance, while potentially potent, is unable to consolidate the anti-BJP vote effectively, allowing the BJP to exploit these fissures to its advantage.
Also read: Why the 2024 J&K Assembly Elections Are Reminiscent of the 1977 Elections
Opposition leaders face an uphill battle in overcoming voter apathy and convincing the public that they offer a viable alternative to the status quo. Decades of political instability, coupled with the absence of a functioning legislative assembly since 2018, have bred deep disillusionment among voters. For many, the upcoming elections feel like another chapter in a long saga of unfulfilled promises. This sentiment is particularly strong among the youth, who have become increasingly disillusioned with traditional political parties.
Iftikhar Ahmed Chaudhary, the India Alliance candidate from Rajauri representing the Congress Party, has accused BJP-backed independent candidates of attempting to split votes, thereby undermining the NC-Congress alliance’s chances. Omar Abdullah echoed these claims, pointing to the release of Er Rashid on bail as an example of BJP engaging in manipulative tactics. Both leaders have accused the BJP of employing underhanded political strategies to weaken opposition forces and tilt the electoral outcome in their favor. In constituencies like Marh, Akhnoor, Bahu, Jammu West, and RS Pura in Jammu division, the Congress within the INDIA Alliance could have easily secured victories or, at the very least, mounted a formidable challenge. However, due to a glaring lack of coordination, the party seems to be unprepared. This oversight is poised to benefit the BJP, despite the strong wave of anti-incumbency working against them.
Manifesto game
Despite ambitious promises, the manifestos of major political parties have consistently fallen short in addressing Jammu & Kashmir’s unique challenges. The BJP’s manifesto, while emphasising development and national unity, lacks sincerity and a cohesive roadmap to resolve core regional issues like unemployment, security, political alienation and restoration of statehood. Similarly, the National Conference (NC) has faced backlash, especially for its controversial proposals to rename iconic hillocks and review the reservation policy. While it may work for Kashmir but in Jammu it has faced huge backlash. Both manifestos, while grand in vision, fail to address the deep-rooted concerns of the region’s populace, leaving voters skeptical of their intent.
Both parties have turned these manifestos into battlegrounds for political strategy rather than substantive governance, with the BJP leveraging the NC’s stance on reservations and renaming landmarks as points of contention in its campaign, particularly in regions like Pir Panjal, where recent grants of Scheduled Tribe (ST) status to the Pahari community have altered the political calculus. In these scenarios, the manifestos appear to serve more as tools for electoral point-scoring than blueprints for genuine change in the region.
Kanwal Singh is a policy analyst from J&K.
Mubashir Naik is a freelance journalist based in J&K.