Nitish Kumar’s growing loss of composure has allowed the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to gain leverage over him. Much like the proverbial cat that feigns death to deceive mice, the BJP is portraying itself as harmless and protective towards the Bihar leader, who once outsmarted the party’s cunning tactics.
Is there anyone to warn Nitish about the deceptive atmosphere surrounding him? The answer appears to be no, as the BJP seems to have successfully isolated him from potential whistleblowers within his own party, as well as from Lalu Prasad Yadav, the shrewdest opponent of the Sangh Parivar in the Socialist camp, by utilising investigating agencies as its most potent tool.
Nitish’s problem lies in his diminishing ability to employ the guile and well-crafted strategies for which he was once known. He was a skilled player in the game of ambivalence. When allied with the BJP, he voted for Pranab Mukherjee, a Congress nominee for the president’s post. Later, as part of the Mahagathbandhan, he supported the BJP’s Ramnath Kovind against the Congress’s Meira Kumar. Through such actions, he kept his allies perpetually guessing.
Recently, however, repeated instances of awkward behaviour have caused anxiety among the people of Bihar – who have placed their faith in his leadership for over two decades – as well as his personal friends across the Socialist camp. Following an awkward moment during the recitation of the national anthem, he made objectionable remarks towards his predecessor, Rabri Devi, in the Bihar Legislative Council: “Tohar kya hai, sub husband ka hai, baitha (What’s yours? You owe everything to your husband, sit down).” His admirers and friends are shocked, struggling to reconcile this behaviour with the Nitish they knew – a man renowned for his decent words and suave conduct throughout his long political career.
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The only party appearing to rejoice over Nitish’s apparent health decline – though no expert reports have been made public – is the BJP’s top brass. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, acting like the proverbial cat, has mollycoddled Nitish, pretending to be his friend and describing him as a “ladla (lovable) CM” at a public meeting in Bihar’s Bhagalpur last month.
Despite being allied with Nitish for much of his career, the BJP has made several attempts to weaken his hold on the Janata Dal (United) (JD (U)). In the past, Nitish consistently outsmarted the moves of Modi and his trusted aide, Union home minister Amit Shah. Now, however, his deteriorating health seems to have left him unable to escape the trap the BJP has set this time.
While Eknath Shinde has at least survived to continue shadow-boxing against Devendra Fadnavis in Maharashtra, the BJP’s strategy appears designed to leave Nitish with little to hold onto beyond the Assembly elections scheduled to be held later this year in Bihar.
Seat-sharing talks coincide with ED raids
From the 2005 Assembly elections onward, Nitish consistently secured a larger share of seats than the BJP, ranging from 120 to 140 against the BJP’s approximately 100 in the 243-member Bihar Assembly. However, despite securing more seats, his JD(U) was reduced to 43 MLAs in the last election, with another National Democratic Alliance (NDA) partner rebelling and fielding candidates against his nominees.
Still, aware of Nitish’s vote bank among the extremely backward classes (EBCs), who constitute 36% of Bihar’s electorate, the BJP was forced to accept him as the chief minister. Now, citing the previous election’s outcome, the BJP is eyeing at least an equal number of seats as the JD(U) in the Assembly polls. Their larger goal, however, is to erode Nitish’s EBC and Dalit base, capitalising on his declining health.
As part of its calculated strategy, the BJP is keen to contest the election in alliance with the JD(U) and under Nitish’s leadership, yet it remains ambiguous about guaranteeing his return as chief minister after the 2025 elections. Rumour has it that Nitish’s negotiators have insisted to the BJP that they will settle for nothing less than 122 seats and an explicit declaration of Nitish as the chief ministerial face. Amid these behind-the-scenes seat-sharing talks, the Enforcement Directorate (ED) raided the premises of relatives of Vijay Kumar Choudhary, Bihar’s finance minister and Nitish’s closest aide.
The ED’s actions are widely seen as the BJP’s “most lethal weapon” to pressure Nitish’s aides and force him to accept a reduced number of seats. Political circles in Bihar are buzzing with speculation that the ED may intensify its actions against Nitish’s trusted allies until he relents.
Challenges for Nishant
Nitish’s well-wishers and long-time friends from his Kurmi caste in his native Nalanda district have propped up his engineer son, Nishant Kumar, to take up his mantle. Soft-spoken and suave, Nishant has appealed to both the BJP and JD(U) to project his father as the chief ministerial face, signalling his preparation for a political role. Around 50-year-old Nishant, however, has thus far steered clear of politics. Is he equipped to handle the challenges of transitioning from a novice to a seasoned politician? Does he possess the acumen to navigate political obstacles? Has he prepared himself for the rough-and-tumble world of politics?
Also read: Why Bihar Will Not Go the Delhi Way
While the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), the JD(U)’s main rival, has welcomed his potential entry into politics, Nishant’s greatest hurdle will come from the BJP. Under Modi and Shah’s leadership, the BJP has employed every trick to install its own chief minister after the elections. Given their domineering approach, the last thing the BJP is likely to accept is Nishant as Nitish’s successor.
No prediction for the future
Despite the BJP exploiting Nitish’s declining health as its greatest opportunity yet, it would be unwise to predict its victory. Launching a guided missile at a target is straightforward, but despite remarkable advances in science and technology, no method has been devised to accurately forecast election results involving nearly eight crore voters.
Nalin Verma is a senior journalist and author. He teaches mass communication and creative writing at Jamia Hamdard University, New Delhi.
