Political scientist and commentator Suhas Palshikar has said, “The prime minister will be the most uncomfortable person in the new Lok Sabha” because Narendra Modi insists that he has won a mandate for a third term when, in fact, he has lost his majority and his government cannot survive without support from allies. Palshikar says the prime minister knows this but his personality will prevent him adapting to the new political situation he finds himself in. This, Palshikar says, will lead to tension and awkwardness which will show in Modi’s behaviour, manner and speech but also in the way his government conducts itself and, possibly, is perceived.
In an interview to The Wire recorded on the day the new Speaker was elected, Palshikar, chief editor of Studies in Indian Politics and co-director of the Lokniti Programme on Comparative Democracy, spoke of the tensions, acrimony and polarisation that is likely to characterise the 18th Lok Sabha. He said: “There will be more direct confrontation between the main ruling party and the opposition because the BJP would be licking its wounds, seeking opportunities to de-legitimize the Opposition and the Opposition would be eager to flex its muscles because of its belief that the people have rejected the BJP.”
In these circumstances, Palshikar does not believe there will be any substantive change between the Modi government’s behaviour during the last 10 years and the next five. He says: “The Modi regime will soon return to its core features – weaponisation of state power to suppress dissent, coupled with intolerance of routine opposition, de-legitimisation of all institutions through their political capture and a well-defined majoritarian politics that encourages the societal sphere to stigmatise the minorities.”
Palshikar identified four fault-lines that could become potential flashpoints for the government. They are the handling of unemployment and the frustrations of youth, Centre-state relations, the issue of a caste census and reservations, and vigilante adventurism against Muslims whilst the state simply behaves like a passive onlooker.
