Sikkim, nestled within the Indian Himalayas, is one of the regions most vulnerable to global warming. Glaciers in the state are melting. In the early 2000s, we had noted the accelerated rate at which Rathong Glacier was receding. Therefore, people, especially the scientific community, were up to speed with the issues of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF) and the formation of many lakes on account of this phenomenon.
A GLOF is a type of flood that occurs when a glacier-dammed lake breaches its natural barrier, leading to the sudden release of a large volume of water
As early as September 2007, the then state government headed by Pawan Chamling had constituted a Glacier and Climate Change Commission (GCCC) to investigate this phenomenon. Noted glaciologist Dr S. Hasnain from The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) led this programme formulated under the under the science and technology department of the Sikkim governmentThe Central Water Commission, a Government of India agency, has operated in Sikkim since the early 1970s. They had been commissioned by the then king of Sikkim to conduct a study on the river Teesta and its hydropower potential. They identified all the various stages of the Teesta. Teesta Stage III is the one that was affected by the GLOF in Chungthang.
A GLOF event is said to have started shortly before midnight on October 3 in Lhonak Cho. This meant that the flood waters would have reached Chungthang in approximately one and a half hours. However, there is no official confirmation about when the GLOF event started until satellite imagery reveals that.
As of now, it is believed that the flood was caused by a slide on one side of the lake pushing huge debris and ice into the water body which resulted in a ‘mini tsunami’. The Chungthang dam breached sometime after midnight.
What is now important is to find out why the manual alerting system failed in view of no early warning systems (EWS) in place. Indicator systems installed were nonfunctional.
Chief minister P.S. Tamang has gone on record to state that he received the information at 10:40 pm on October 3.
The oncoming flood took people, homes, soldiers, ammunition, bridges and trucks besides all else in its wake. Even more terrifying is the fact that the water descended from over 17,000 ft to about 6,000 ft over a 68 km stretch. This steep descent ensures the kind of kinetic force which resulted in such a heavy toll on the way down to Chungthang, devastating it, and then on to the Teesta Stage III dam which was, according to sources, operating at 120% capacity.
The flooded banks of the Teesta in North Sikkim. Photo: By arrangement.
The dam officials were alerted too late and the spillway gates could not be lifted on time. Some bravehearts lost their lives in trying to save the dam and their colleagues.
Meanwhile, the chief minister has tried to shift the blame and focus on the dam itself. He said that it was not built to the right specifications and accused the previous government of corruption. How he came to this conclusion is anyone’s guess. But this lack of statesmanship is an attempt to hide his own follies.
He has forgotten that till 2009 he was very much part of the Sikkim Democratic Front (SDF). Now, to shift the blame is purely to shift the focus from the operations, maintenance, and improper monitoring of Lhonak Cho by his government. This, despite the repeated warnings from the scientists and other institutions that are now coming out in the public view and discourse.
Nevertheless, SDF has demanded a full enquiry and a forensic investigation into all potential causes behind the GLOF event and, in particular, the failure of the dam.
Another question that remains unanswered is why the dam was running beyond its capacity, as alluded to by the chairman of Teesta Urja Ltd, Sunil Sarogi. The investigation also needs to look at the failure of the manual alarm system. It took an Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) jawan to sound the alert ostensibly at 10:40 pm – exactly when the chief minister is said to have received the information.
But the most serious question is this: Did the chief minister fail to understand the enormity and gravity of the situation when he received the information and took it lightly? He continued with his meetings despite the warnings and left Mangan only at 12:30 am.
The point the public are making in affected areas is that even if the warnings had reached the major hotspots half an hour earlier then many lives could have been saved.
Without understanding the fundamentals, the chief minister has tried to change the narrative to score political points against the principal opposition – SDF at a time when the state is reeling from a massive disaster.
This is purely in line with what he has been doing as a countermeasure during these four and half years of failed governance. The best way out is always to blame a government that was in the saddle for 25 years!
We have learned that a multidisciplinary committee is being set up to investigate the dam breach. While this is a positive step, it all depends on the terms of reference, which must be comprehensive. This is a national disaster, and we must look at it from that lens. The findings will be of vital importance in the context of the entire Himalayan region where many GLOF-related dangers lurk. These have an impact on India’s border security issues as well.
While it is a wake-up call for the whole country, Sikkim and its people have paid a heavy price.
The chief minister must show more empathy at this time of grieving and not indulge in petty politics.
P.D. Rai, is a member of the SDF Party and a two term former Lok Sabha MP. The views expressed are purely personal and do not necessarily reflect the views of the SDF Party.