Bengaluru: After the Congress had won the assembly elections in Karnataka and subsequently Telangana last year, the local party units in these states were hopeful of improving their tally in the general elections and even securing more seats than the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the Congress had three seats in Telangana and was reduced to one in Karnataka, this time the grand old party managed to win five more in Telangana and emerged victorious in nine seats in Karnataka.
Illustration: Pariplab Chakraborty
Notably, the BJP has won 29 seats in total in the five southern states — it had won as many seats in the 2019 general elections. The difference, however, is that the saffron party had secured 25 seats in Karnataka alone and four in Telangana in the last elections while it was reduced to 17 — additionally two seats are won by National Democratic Alliance (NDA) partner Janata Dal (Secular) (JD(S)) — in Karnataka and added four more in Telangana, three in Andhra Pradesh — NDA’s Telugu Desam Party (TDP) has won 16 and Janasena Party (JnP) won two in the state — and one in Kerala this time. Interestingly, despite the excessive focus on Tamil Nadu, the BJP couldn’t open its account while it has managed to improve its vote share from 3.66% to 11.24% here. In the 2019 polls, the party had an alliance with AIADMK, this time it didn’t partner with any of the major Dravidian forces but aligned with five smaller parties — Amma Makkal Munnettra Kazhagam (AMMK), Tamizhaga Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (TMMK), Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), Puthiya Needhi Katchi (PNK) and Tamil Maanila Congress (Moopanar) (TNC(M)).
Overall, the Congress party has improved its tally from 27 seats in 2019 general elections to 40 this time in the southern region. The party drew a blank in Andhra Pradesh and won nine in Tamil Nadu and 14 in Kerala. Senior party leaders were hopeful of performing better in Karnataka, in particular.
Overdependence on guarantees and lack of social engineering
Out of the 28 constituencies, the Congress has managed to secure all the five seats in Hyderabad Karnataka, two in Old Mysuru belt and one each in Bombay Karnataka and Middle Karnataka. It is noteworthy that the victory margin was less than 50,000 in Kalaburagi (27205), Davangere (26094), Hassan (42649) and Koppal (46357) while the grand old party has lost three seats with a margin of less than 50,000 — Bangalore Central (32707), Haveri (43513) and Chitradurga (48121) — in Karnataka.
The party had estimated to secure 15-20 seats in the state banking on the five guarantees, which are the poll promises fulfilled by the Siddaramaiah government after coming to power. Experts suggest that the Congress should have focussed more on national issues instead of depending only on the performance of the state government and guarantees. Moreover, the social engineering worked in the party’s favour in the Hyderabad Karnataka region where Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge holds influence and drew the campaign strategy focussing on different caste groups. While the Vokkaligas — who are a dominant force in the Old Mysuru region — sided with the Congress party in last year’s assembly polls, the results highlight that they have backed the NDA this time due to the influence of former prime minister H.D. Deve Gowda’s family. By winning two of the three seats which it had contested, the JD(S) has renewed wind beneath its wings now.
In the assembly elections, Vokkaligas had voted for the grand old party largely because they were expecting to see Karnataka deputy chief minister D.K. Shivakumar assume the chief minister’s post. “Two dominant caste groups were with the Congress party in the state elections. The Lingayats were miffed with the BJP for removing B.S. Yediyurappa from chief ministership and prominent Lingayat faces like Jagadish Shettar and Laxman Savadi joined the Congress party just before the polls. The Vokkaligas were backing Shivakumar because he was seen as a future chief minister. But this time the party couldn’t focus on social engineering in general and bring different caste groups together. It is a failure of both Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar. Kharge focused on social engineering in the Hyderabad Karnataka region and look at the outcomes,” Rajshekhar Hatagundi, a senior political columnist, said.
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Noteworthy, while state capitals in the South like Hyderabad, Chennai and Thiruvananthapuram have voted for either the regional forces or the Congress party, the BJP has been dominating the four Lok Sabha segments in Bengaluru since the last decade – D.K. Suresh who was the Congress MP from Bengaluru Rural has lost this time.
Like Karnataka, the Congress party focussed on the performance of its newly formed government in Telangana. Moreover, the diminished impact of the Bharat Rashtra Samiti (BRS) meant that the state was going to largely witness a bipolar fight between the two national parties. Before the elections, there was an exodus of BRS leaders to both the Congress and the BJP. Although both the BJP and Congress have won an equal number of seats, the saffron party has garnered 35.08% vote share while the latter has secured 40.10% votes. In the 2019 general elections, the BJP had 19.65% votes, Congress had 29.79% while the BRS had 41.71% and plummeted to less than 17% this time.
“In Telangana, the voting pattern for assembly elections and general elections was not the same this time. The same voters who had supported the Congress party in the state a few months back, voted for the BJP because they wanted to see them form the government at the Centre. Moreover, chief minister Revant Reddy who is also the state unit president couldn’t co-ordinate properly with the different factions of leaders, in general and those who have joined the party from the BRS and TDP, in particular. Modi held several rallies which boosted the local BJP cadre,” Mendu Ravinder, a senior reporter, said.
Notably, the BJP has been attempting to make inroads in Hyderabad where All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) chief Asaduddin Owaisi has won the elections for the fourth time with a margin of 3,38,087 votes against BJP nominee Madhavi Latha Kompella. Kompella had instantly become popular on social media for her communal campaign and had garnered media attention before the polls. Interestingly, the party’s focus in the state capital was underlined as several heavyweights campaigned for the Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation election in 2020 — from former home minister Amit Shah to party president J.P. Nadda and former union minister Smriti Irani and Uttar Pradesh chief minister Adityanath and Maharashtra deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis and Bangalore South MP Tejasvi Surya, even Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Hyderabad during the local polls.
The simultaneous election effect
Just five years ago, the Yuvajana Sramika Rythu Congress Party (YSRCP) had won 22 out of the 25 Lok Sabha seats and 151 of 175 assembly constituencies in Andhra Pradesh. Now, the regional party is reduced to four Lok Sabha seats and 11 assembly constituencies; the TDP won 135 assembly seats while Pawan Kalyan’s JnP emerged victorious in 21 seats and the BJP grabbed eight in the state polls. Similarly, the TDP won 16 seats, the BJP got three and the JnP won two seats in the general elections.
Political observers suggest that the BJP winning three out of the six Lok Sabha seats in which it contested and securing a vote share of 11.28% is only because of its alliance partners TDP and JnP and the saffron party alone would have struggled to revive from its earlier negligible vote share of 0.98%. Moreover, the anti-incumbency factor against the Y.S.Jagan Mohan Reddy-led government had a ripple effect on the general election outcomes in the state as there were simultaneous polls for the assembly as well.
An array of factors worked against the YSRCP government in Andhra Pradesh, including the alleged attitude towards local MLAs and arrogance of chief minister Jagan who relied on his coterie of political leaders primarily belonging to the Reddy community like Challa Ramakrishna Reddy, Vijaya Sai Reddy and Y.V. Subba Reddy. Moreover, the YSRCP government announced the formation of three state capitals Vizag, Vijaywada and Kurnool, and failed to develop even one. The corruption at the ground level coupled with gross mismanagement of state finances which led to delay in salaries of state employees added to the angst of the electorates. The weakening of the local government structure and law and order status were also prime factors for the rout. Notably, the murder of the chief minister’s uncle was not investigated properly which added to the public perception that the government is not able to provide safety. The final nail in the coffin was the arrest of TDP chief N. Chandrababu Naidu without any evidence which was aptly used by the party leaders to make an emotional appeal against the YSRCP amidst continuous insults hurled by Jagan’s ministers at the TDP leaders, including Naidu.
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The voters in Andhra Pradesh are banking on an experienced Naidu to create more job opportunities as promised by the TDP during the poll campaign. Understandably, the sentiments against the YSRCP helped the NDA win a majority of the seats in the general elections as well. Two of the seats won by YSRCP are reserved constituencies which were the stronghold of the Congress party — Araku (ST reserved), Thirupathi (SC reserved) — before Jagan had split from the party, the other constituencies — Kadapa and Rajampet — were also traditionally the supporters of Jagan’s father Y.S. Rajasekhara Reddy and the Congress.
BJP’s Mission Kerala and Tamil Nadu
In Kerala, the BJP has managed to win one seat, Thrissur — Suresh Gopi won by a margin of 74,686 votes against Communist Party of India’s V.S. Sunilkumar — and has improved its overall vote share from 12.93% to 16.48%.
Local political observers suggest that the concentration of votes of the BJP in assembly segments could be a worrying sign for the Pinarayi Vijayan state government which is facing anti-incumbency. According to a Manorama analysis, the BJP came first in 11 assembly segments, including six falling under the Thrissur seat and second in nine segments and a close third in ten assembly segments. Contrastingly, the BJP had come first in only one of the 140 assembly segments in the previous general election in the state.
While the saffron party drew a blank in Tamil Nadu, it is interesting to note the strategic alliances formed with the smaller parties which have a strong support base among different caste groups in the state. This is a similar game plan which the BJP had used to slowly spread its base in Uttar Pradesh.
Out of the 39 seats in Tamil Nadu, the BJP had contested 20 seats and occupied the second spot in nine constituencies — Coimbatore (loss margin 1,18,068 ), Tirunelveli (loss margin 1,65,620), Kanniyakumari (loss margin 1,79,907), Madurai (loss margin 2,09,409), Vellore (loss margin 2,15,702), Chennai South (loss margin 2,25,945), Nilgiris (loss margin 2,40,585), Chennai Central (loss margin 2,44,689) and Tiruvallur (loss margin 5,72,155).
The DMK has emerged as the largest party with 22 seats and 26.93% vote share here. As a part of the NDA, PMK contested ten seats, G.K. Vasan’s TMC (M) contested three seats and AMMK fielded candidates in two constituencies and four other regional party candidates contested in the ‘Lotus’ symbol. All the NDA parties failed to win any seat, however, overall the NDA’s vote share stands at 18.27% in this southern state.
The lesson for all the regional parties, the Left front and the Congress is to strengthen their cadres in these states and build relations across caste groups in order to stall the BJP’s foothold. Moreover, the decimation of the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) has also left a vacant space in the political landscape of Tamil Nadu.
“Not all battles are aimed at immediate victory. The BJP is actively engaging with local issues to enhance its acceptability, moving away from its perceived focus on a Hindu and Hindi agenda. Traditionally seen as outsiders in Tamil Nadu and Kerala — regions typically resistant to their influence — the BJP is diligently working to alter this perception. This strategy is underscored by Prime Minister Modi frequently weaving Tirukkural couplets into his speeches and the symbolic placement of the Sengol in the new Parliament building — both deliberate gestures to resonate with regional sentiments. They are deploying a long-term strategy. These states are now key strategic targets for the party. Although they have won a seat in Kerala, achieving electoral success in Tamil Nadu remains challenging due to their dispersed and unconsolidated voter base,” explained Bharath Kumar, a senior political analyst.
Read all of The Wire’s reporting on and analysis of the 2024 election results here.
