This piece was first published on The India Cable – a premium newsletter from The Wire & Galileo Ideas – and has been republished here. To subscribe to The India Cable, click here.
Hours after his party’s victory in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh, Narendra Modi staged two ‘hat-tricks’: first, he pushed the narrative that the success in the three states ensured a similar victory in impending Lok Sabha polls.
A master wordsmith, Modi aim was to throw the opposition into disarray. And his talking up the ‘hat-trick’ worked. Played up by TV channels, Mamata Banerjee instantly announced she would not attend joint opposition meetings ‘anymore’. Akhilesh Yadav even declared a boycott of future opposition meetings. As a result, the INDIA alliance had to put off its meeting scheduled for December 6. “Knives are out in the INDIA alliance,” the TV channels gleefully declared. The Congress, on its part, also contributed to the confusion by fixing the December 6 meeting without consulting even senior allies like M.K. Stalin and Uddhav Thackeray.
But does the triumph in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhatisgarh really ensure a BJP victory in the Lok Sabha as Modi claims?
A closer look at the 2019 Lok Sabha results shows that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has already reached saturation point in all Hindi states. There is no room for further improvement as the BJP has 25 out of 25 in Rajasthan, 28 out of 29 in Madhya Pradesh, and nine of 11 in Chhatisgarh.
In 2019, in Delhi, the party bagged all seven seats, all 10 in Haryana, and all 26 in Gujarat. The 2019 Balakot bravado had its impact on outlying states in the south and even in opposition strongholds like West Bengal and Bihar. The BJP cannot achieve these figures without precipitating a similar event.
Psephologist Yogendra Yadav has also turned to vote shares to argue why Modi’s ‘hat trick’ theory was flawed. The difference between BJP and Congress was less than 2% in Rajasthan and 4% in Chhatisgarh. In Madhya Pradesh, where the BJP retained power, the difference was a respectable 8%.
What explains this gulf between Congress and BJP votes? While there can be many factors, there are three which need highlighting.
The first is setting in motion ED/CBI/IT raids not just in the run-up to an election – which has been the BJP’s traditional practice – but even after the election process has begun. This marks the start of a dangerous new strategy. It amounts to intentionally disrupting the opposition’s legitimate election work by way of choking the flow of funds and arbitrarily seizing campaign materials. All the while allowing the ruling party a free hand.
There is a ban by the EC on the introduction of new government largesse after elections have been announced. There is little chance of the Election Commission accepting the Opposition’s demand for a similar ban on ED/CBI/Income tax assaults during the elections. Look at the way the ED/CBI hounded the opposition during the elections while treating BJP leaders with kid gloves.
In a bid to disrupt the opposition’s election work, the ED, CBI, and income tax intensified raids on its leaders, including candidates. They were harassed and put under strain while not a single BJP leader was subjected to similar treatment. The ED/CBI/IT cannot demoralise Congress workers, says Kharge. But they did frustrate the opposition’s work, and it did disrupt their campaign.
Second, these assembly elections heralded another, far more alarming trend. For the first time, the party has field-tested a cloak-and-dagger ‘influence’ operation aimed at sabotaging the political fortunes of its rivals. The Lokniti survey referred to a sudden swing in voters’ mood some time in the first week of November. Development issues, which were the dominant theme earlier, took a back seat after November 3 (four days before the polling on November 7) when the ED came out with its allegation of a Rs 508 crore ‘Mahadev scam’ against chief minister Bhupesh Baghel.
The opposition should draw the right lessons from this episode. This must be viewed as a rehearsal for more daring influence operations during the Lok Sabha polls.
Consider the present regime’s proclivity to undertake audacious operations even in foreign lands. This has led to much diplomatic tension with friendly countries. This adds to the Opposition’s fears of a last-minute Modi gambit.
Third, the Electoral bonds scheme virtually legalises unaccounted money and puts it into the kitty of the preferred political party. The sale of the latest tranche of bonds happened in November, just in time for the five state assembly elections.
As per the Association for Democratic Reform, the BJP was the biggest beneficiary of the Electoral Bonds Scheme. It bagged Rs 5,272 core out of a total Rs 9,188 crore. Other parties, including the regional parties, shared the rest of the amount.
This further skews the political environment for the political opposition by legalising a black, opaque means of money reaching politics.
The Supreme Court verdict on the legality of the bonds scheme is expected any day. A lot hangs on that.
P. Raman is a veteran journalist.
