Srinagar: The ongoing political churn in Jammu and Kashmir has turned Ghulam Nabi Azad into one of the biggest losers amid allegations that the former Congress leader was a secret-ally to the Bhartiya Janta Party’s (BJP) plan of dividing the Muslim vote in the ongoing assembly election in the union territory.
Since its formation in 2022, Azad’s nascent outfit, the Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP), has struggled to find a footing in J&K’s fast-changing political climate, even though the former Congress leader’s tenure as Chief Minister from 2005 to 2008 continues to be fondly remembered by some people for its good governance.
Losing support after being portrayed as close to BJP
The DPAP’s struggle was exemplified in the recently concluded Lok Sabha election where the party’s candidates from Udhampur and Anantnag-Rajouri constituencies lost their security deposits. Now, the party has restricted its participation in the ongoing assembly election also.
Professor Noor Ahmad Baba, a political scientist and former Dean at the University of Kashmir, said that the exit from the Congress was a “big miscalculation” by Azad at the fag end of his political career which has shadowed him as well as the Congress at a time when the party was showing signs of revival in Jammu and Kashmir.
“The strength of Azad as well as the Congress party in J&K has been halved by his poorly timed departure,” Prof Baba said, adding: “If he was in charge of J&K, Congress would certainly perform better in the ongoing election”.
Baba said that Azad was portrayed as being closer to the BJP which has played a crucial role in denting his party’s electoral prospects because of the widespread anger against the saffron party in Kashmir and some pockets of Jammu region.
“Whether it is true or not, there is a wider perception that Azad is enjoying the goodwill of the BJP. In that respect, his fate is similar to that of Altaf Bukhari and his party,” he said.
Like Azad’s DPAP, Bukhari’s Apni Party, which was also born in the aftermath of the union government’s decision of reading down Article 370 and is also a BJP ally, has failed to take off, despite initial euphoria.
DPAP could struggle even in its stronghold
According to political analysts, Azad’s party could be struggling even in its stronghold of Chenab Valley where the former Congress leader embarked on an infrastructure revamp drive as the union health minister in the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance government at the centre.
Under Azad, the Chenab valley, which is home to Kishtwar, J&K’s poorest district among two other hilly districts, recorded an uptick in infrastructure development. A medical college was announced for Doda district and a series of new connectivity projects and administrative wings were opened to connect the remote villages of the poorly-serviced region.
However, the DPAP has struggled to convert a largely favourable public opinion of Azad and his developmental initiatives in J&K into a formidable electoral base over the last two years. An associate of Azad told The Wire that many voters continue to associate him with ‘hand’ which is the election symbol of the Congress party.
“Azad saheb’s workers struggle to explain especially to the wary elders that he has floated his own outfit and they have to cast their vote for the ‘bucket’ symbol. Some people dismiss it as a conspiracy against Azad,” said an associate of Azad, who didn’t want to be identified.
Out of 90 assembly constituencies in J&K, the DPAP has fielded 12 candidates in Jammu, which is also the former union health minister’s home division, and 10 in Kashmir where Azad was hoping to leverage the support for Congress in pockets of south and north Kashmir in his favour.
Ahead of the ongoing election, some prominent DPAP faces such as G M Saroori from Chenab Valley and Taj Mohiuddin from Baramulla abandoned ship and entered the electoral race in the Inderwal and Uri assembly constituencies respectively as independent candidates, ostensibly to avoid an electoral backlash over Azad’s unconfirmed links with the BJP.
Many leaders jumping ship
A similar conundrum has emerged in south Kashmir where Azad’s loyalists are wary of associating themselves with the DPAP. Former lawmaker Mohammad Amin Bhat contested from Devsar assembly constituency as independent candidate while Gulzar Ahmad Wani dropped out after being denied mandate from Shangus assembly by the Congress.
Both Bhat and Wani were elected to J&K assembly on the Congress mandate and were widely seen as close to Azad. However, barring Dooru assembly constituency, where the former JK Congress chief G A Mir is locked in a tight contest, the Congress, which has a seat sharing arrangement in J&K with National Conference (NC), wasn’t expected to do well in Kashmir.
In Chenab Valley, the stronghold of Azad, one of the DPAP’s top candidates and former J&K minister, Abdul Majid Wani, who is contesting from Doda East assembly constituency, is also bracing for a close call against the BJP’s Gajay Singh Rana who allegedly resorted to communal tactics to consolidate the Hindu vote bank during campaigning for the ongoing assembly election, prompting the NC to file a complaint with the Election Commission of India.
The constituency, which is one of the six seats in J&K where INDIA bloc partners Congress and the NC are in a “friendly contest”, has a mixed population but the Muslim vote is likely to be divided with the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) also putting up strong candidates in the election which was held on September 18.
The first phase of the assembly election in Jammu and Kashmir was held in Kishtwar, Ramban and Doda districts of Chenab Valley and south Kashmir’s Pulwama, Shopian, Anantnag and Kulgam districts among others while the second phase is scheduled on September 25, Wednesday.
Congress and other parties likely to nibble away DPAP votebank
Irfan Ahmad, a local journalist in Doda, said that the Congress’s Sheikh Riyaz and AAP’s Mehjaruddin Malik were likely to nibble away the vote bank of DPAP’s Wani which is predominantly concentrated in Gandoh tehsil of Doda, the home tehsil of Azad. Khalid Najeeb Sohrawardy of the NC is also likely to act as a spoiler for Wani.
“It is a direct contest between DPAP and BJP. (Prime Minister’s Narendra) Modi’s rally strengthened the saffron party in the constituency but it remains to be seen which way the wind was going to blow,” said Ahmad, who works with a national multimedia news agency.
While Riyaz was dependent on the Congress’s traditional votebank in Gandoh tehsil, Ahmad said that Malik, who also hails from Gandoh, was banking on his clean public image and he may have pocketed crucial votes from his supporters who contributed to funding his election campaign.
Ahmad said that both Riyaz and Malik may have swayed the vote of Azad in pockets of Doda East constituency along with the PDP’s Mansoor Bhat who defeated Saroori, a former Azad loyalist, in the Thathri municipal elections in Doda district.
For Doda West constituency, the DPAP has fielded Abdul Gani Bhat, former chairman of Block Development Council who has come across as a weak candidate against the BJP’s Shakti Raj Parihar and INDIA bloc’s Dr Pradeep Singh, “Singh has an edge over Parihar but Bhat is nowhere in the contest,” said Imran Ahmad, a businessman of Doda.
Political analysts believe that the DPAP candidates stand no chance in Kishtwar, Padder-Nagsani, Inderwal, Ramban and Banihal assembly constituencies of Chenab Valley where the contest was going to be between the INDIA bloc and the saffron party, “It is hard to predict whether the party of Azad will be in a position to have a say once the assembly election results are declared,” a Srinagar-based political analyst said, wishing to remain anonymous.
Prof Baba said that Azad was one of the rare Muslim faces from Jammu and Kashmir who had acceptability even within the Hindu community, “His exit has made the Congress poorer and in the process cast a long shadow on his political career as well.”
