This May be the Only Chance For I.N.D.I.A. to Improve the Current State For Indians

When Narendra Modi was sworn in as the prime minister for the first time in 2014, Indians were brimming with an unprecedented  hope for economic and social well being. The media hype and PR blitzkrieg unleashed an optimism that India would accelerate its economic development, social harmony and global stature. However, as he is in his third term, the reality for the majority of Indians has been far different. 

The progress in the last decade raises big questions on the so-called growth trajectory considering economic distress, income disparity, oligarchy, institutional erosion and social fragmentation, to name a few. While the Modi government’s narrative of “development” like the ‘Gujarat model’ is still appealing to a few, the real quality-of-life indices and socio-economic markers paint a different picture: one of growing inequality, suppression of dissent and an erosion of democratic values.

If we evaluate the erosion of economic well being from 2014, the policies of the last eleven years largely exacerbated inequalities – they’ve helped the rich to get richer while failing to spread prosperity for all. 

Top five reported economic slides

1. Spiralling unemployment: India’s unemployment rates touched as high as 23% in 2023. The promise to create two crore jobs annually was just another election manifesto item as usual. In reality, Modi’s tenure has seen job losses due to automation, demonetisation and pandemic mismanagement. The informal sector, which employs over 80% of the workforce, has been severely impacted by economic disruptions. More than 1.2 crore youths come to the job market every year but the government seems to use data fudge techniques to showcase lower rates: a person is considered employed if he/she has worked for at least one hour a day during the seven days preceding the survey.

2. The debacle of demonetisation: Nearly 80% of currency in circulation was wiped out overnight with the infamous, and as some say quixotic, 2016 demonetisation. This alone devastated small businesses, daily wage workers, and the informal sector. The GDP growth rate plummeted from 8.2% in 2016 to 5.7% in 2017. This, despite changing the GDP measurement in 2015, reportedly to make the government look better than the earlier regime. Reportedly, 80 crore Indians are dependent on government food subsidy.

3. Rural distress: The primary source of rural employment, the agriculture sector, has had stagnant growth at an average 3% annually. Rural wages have stagnated despite rising input costs. Farmer suicides continue unabated, with over 10,000 cases reported annually, and more that goes unreported. The promise of doubling farmers’ income by 2022 was yet another election promise, likely to be used again in 2029, perhaps.

4. Inflation and GST mess: The implementation of the goods and services tax (GST) has disproportionately damaged small businesses. Rising fuel prices and inflation, especially in essential items like food and healthcare, have reverse correlation to income  growth. This has further troubled the middle-class. Retail inflation hovered around 6-7%, far exceeding the RBI’s comfort zone.

5. Income disparity: Oxfam reported that India’s top 1% holds over 40% of national wealth, while the bottom 50% owns just 3%. The Gini coefficient, a measure of income inequality, has worsened: today, India is one of the most unequal economies in the world. 

Some might argue these are the part and parcel of any growing economy but they wouldn’t disagree with the disintegration of social fabric. 

Top five areas of concern in terms of India’s social fabric

1. Declining press freedom: In the press freedom index, India ranks at 161 out of 180 countries. Many journalists have been behind bars, censored or intimidated. Independent media have suffered the most, either suffocated by cashflow or by hostile takeovers by oligarchs, for instance NDTV.

2. Compromised judiciary and institutions: Independent institutions like the Enforcement Directorate and Central Bureau of India have been allegedly used to silence dissenting voices. The Election Commission has been alleged to have on boarded yes men of the ruling party, accepting the mandates from the government for holding elections and disposing concerns of EVM or protocol violations. Across India’s courts, including the Supreme Court, several judgments have raised eyebrows on ruling for audacious favours.

3. Heightened polarisation: The continued polarisation of the society on the basis of religion is a reality with tactics like Citizenship Amendment Act, mosque demolitions or the new Waqf bill. Hate speeches by BJP leaders continue unabated and they are rewarded for doing so. From Manipur to Malad, communal riots persist.

4. Suppression of dissent: From shooting at farmers to physically injuring students, all peaceful forms of dissent have been curtailed. NGOs and activists have been denied funding from abroad for fear of dissent. See how quickly ED and IT targeted the makers of the Malayalam movie, Empuraan, and how Book My Show removed the comedian Kamra from its artists list.

5. Erosion of parliamentary democracy: From turning microphones off and suspending MPs to passing of laws without debate, the weakening of democratic norms are real. Electoral bonds have further compromised transparency in political funding.

All of these pointers are to say that it is time for the I.N.D.I.A bloc – the united opposition to the ruling BJP – to decisively move from the outdated vote-share arithmetic or the hope that the anti-incumbency might come forth in the next elections and demonstrate a viable answer to counter T.I.N.A. – There Is No Alternative. 

Here are some strategic pointers that could help:

• Shed the anti-Modi rhetoric – no one takes notice now. Be people-focused and progressive. Develop a roadmap for job creation, MSME revival, agri-growth and farmer welfare. Focus must be on labour-intensive industries, and expanding rural employment schemes like MGNREGS.
• Debate the looming crisis of AI-induced massive job losses by 2029 in policymaking forums. Push for social security at grassroots levels by working towards free healthcare, improved education and strengthened public welfare programmes. PDS expansion and Ayushman Bharat coverage will help vulnerable sections. Aggregate the distress sentiments of 80 crore people and express the same in a similar fashion as the Americans have done across the USA.
• Build up from ward levels and propose comprehensive reforms to restore institutional independence, judicial accountability and media freedom. Start with the most fundamental part of democracy – transparency and secrecy of voting. Checks-and-balance is a must for any system and the machine-readable ball to papers or 100% VVPAT should be in place, especially when the CEC appointment process is not a best-on-class process now. Propose best practices for judges appointment as well and mobilise public support.
• The religious polarisation must be addressed with narratives that are passionate and reflective of true secularism, without fear of being branded as minority-appeasement. Focus must be on shared economic and social progress.  Instead of opposing UCC, make sure it includes all religions and no exceptions at all. For example, the HUF cannot be exempted from UCC if Shariah laws cannot be applied for inheritance. In the opposition-run states, strengthen anti-hate crime legislation and mete out strong punishment for those found guilty even if it is mild. Rudy Giuliani, when he was the mayor of NYC, was credited with reducing crime rates in that city because he had enforced the law even in minor crimes.
• Encourage and establish alternative, independent media outlets to combat state-sponsored misinformation. Invest in digital news platforms and support regional media to help amplify opposition voices amongst the lowest levels. Move beyond posts in X that cater to elite circles and deeply engage with rural and small-town India. Build strong local communication networks like the UNESCO’s community radio stations and empower local leaders with data analytics to build localised counter strategy.
• Increasing unemployment amongst educated youth has helped the drug mafia spread its menace across the nation. The Union government has not taken any steps for strict enforcement of border control and this is an opportunity for the opposition to be vigilant. Use the cadres at ward levels to get youth benefit from various policies including skill development, internships and the likes. Focus on emerging tech like AI, green energy and digital economy.
• Instead of different coalitions at the state and centre level, build a unifying ideology for the alliance. Build a strong, issue-based opposition alliance, setting aside traditional enmity for a larger cause. The Congress should not fight AAP or TMC in one state and then think of working in an alliance elsewhere. The cadres would never understand this at local ward levels as sentiments cannot be turned on and off that easily. Ideally, regional parties must be given a significant role in decision-making to ensure broad-based unity.
• Build a common fund amongst the alliance to counter online propaganda with a digital strategy and connect with younger voters. Fact-checking initiatives and social media outreach must be part of this strategy. Move from traditional sloganeering to a data-driven, problem-solving approach. Publicise local governance failures of BJP-led states to create a more compelling narrative. Most importantly, do not react as before when distractions are pushed out by the propaganda machinery from time to time.

A strategy-focused I.N.D.I.A. that is not reactive or merely anti-Modi will be more effective. The focus on a compelling future for India, backed by actionable solutions, will go a long way in building T.I.A.A. – There Is An Alternative – against the current T.I.N.A..

Today’s battle is not just against a political party but an ecosystem of misinformation, institutional manipulation and social engineering, which a divided and strategy-void opposition had helped create. The leaders and followers who read this should know that the time for half-measures is over. It is time for a new, united and visionary movement that is akin to Quit India but this one is to remove the slides mentioned above. History doesn’t remember silent spectators; it remembers those who dared to challenge the tide. 

If the opposition doesn’t wake up now, the only ‘alternative’ left will be nostalgia for what India could have been.

M. Muneer is a Fortune-500 advisor, start-up investor and co-founder of the non-profit Medici Institute for Innovation.

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