Indeed, the election results on June 4 brought a sigh of relief to many who had helplessly watched as the idea of India was being crushed by the Modi juggernaut with impunity. Many were naturally euphoric that the Indian people had eventually thwarted it. While the counting was still on, some even saw the possibility of the INDIA bloc forming the government with the support of N. Chandrababu Naidu and Nitish Kumar, whom they lazily assumed belonged to the nonexistent secular camp. The idea did not gain traction, and both leaders happily backed Narendra Modi as the prime minister for a third time, a feat only shared by Jawaharlal Nehru.
The euphoria, however, refused to die down. People imagined that Modi, dependent on the support of these two stalwarts, would not be as rash in pushing his Hindutva agenda as he had been during the previous two terms when he commanded his own party’s majority. The National Democratic Alliance existed but was a poor adjunct to the Bharatiya Janata Party. It was not the NDA sarkar, not even the BJP sarkar – it was the Modi sarkar, and even this sarkar melted into the persona of Modi. Modi became the dominant mascot of the state, a virtual insignia, more than the Ashocan trimurti adopted by the founding fathers.
It was Modi who wielded the sengol during the opening of the new parliament house, utterly ignoring the president as the head of the state. Poor Draupadi Murmu was nowhere to be seen, and when she was, as in the picture during the conferment of the Bharat Ratna on L.K. Advani, she was seen standing while Modi and Advani were seated. For the 2024 elections this degeneration reached the unprecedented lows of calling the manifesto ‘Modi’s Guarantee’. The non-BJP partners of the NDA remained content with the unchallenged pelf and power they enjoyed.
The goal of charsau par
Modi with his characteristic hubris appeared invincible. He gave a slogan to win more than 400 seats in the 2024 election, which was required to change the Constitution as some of his colleagues leaked. In truth, little remained to be accomplished by him with the new mandate; everything was already being done in blatant violation of the Constitution. He behaved like a president in a presidential system; the federal structure was effectively dismantled by starving states of resources, reducing even their police power to insignificance, and using governors to cripple their legislative authority. Even the ‘Hindu rashtra’ was achieved in de facto terms, with minorities openly humiliated as non-citizens. The 2024 mandate was still sought to legitimise the transformation in the eyes of the global community. Despite Rahul Gandhi’s two country wide marches, Bharat Jodo Yatra and the Nyaya Yatra, and enhancement in his mass appeal, it did not appear to score the numbers so as to dislodge the BJP from power.
Illustration: Pariplab Chakraborty
On the other hand, BJP’s election machine had seemingly done everything to achieve the goal. The slogan of 400-par intended for changing the Constitution was reminiscent of the 2009 ‘India Shining’ slogan of the Vajpayee-led BJP. It gave a point to the opposition to pose as defenders of the Constitution and to make an emotional appeal to the people of the lower strata, particularly the Dalits who had been voting for the BJP in previous two elections. The grand inauguration of the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya was relied upon as the Pulwama of 2024, but it failed to resonate with the masses. By the time this became apparent during the election campaign, it was too late to conjure up an alternate strategy. Modi began stooping to a rabid and vulgar anti-Muslim rhetoric. The election results on June 4 surprised many and visibly shocked the BJP leadership. Though the BJP emerged as the single largest party, it fell short by 32 seats, making Modi dependent on other parties.
End of the Modi magic?
Some commentators lazily attributed the BJP’s defeat to popular resentment against Modi. They were perhaps projecting their own feelings onto the people, claiming that the populace was fed up with the Hindu-Muslim rhetoric, had slowly realised the hollowness of his claims, and were sceptical about giving him another chance. Some even asserted that people were fatigued by his looming presence everywhere. Unfortunately, the reality did not support these beliefs. The BJP’s vote share in 2024, at 37.37%, is virtually the same as its 37.34% share in 2019. This indicates that nothing – not even his foul-mouthed, anti-Muslim propaganda, unbecoming of a prime minister during his election campaigns – had any adverse impact on the voters. In the 2019 election, it was the Pulwama incident that boosted his vote share and seat tally to 303. In 2024, BJP’s vote share remained stable, even as its seat tally fell to 240, significantly below the majority mark of 272.
Also read: Modi is Back in Power: The Opposition Needs to Watch Out and Hold Its Flock Together
Most commentators fail to understand that his appeal is essentially rooted in his pedestrian and opprobrious expressions, which the masses easily identify with. He is perceived by the masses as anti-elitist, anti-intellectual, risen from a humble class/caste background and hence their own man. His bravado (56” sina) and hubris (“ghar me ghuske marenge“), though unbecoming of his stature, place him in the mould of a hero challenging the established demonic forces. His disdain for democratic norms is seen as contempt for bureaucratic procedures brought in by colonial government.
During the election, video coverage by many YouTubers, eager to capture anti-Modi mood among the masses, frustratingly showed people still favouring him despite having numerous complaints about their dire circumstances. These perplexing responses were barely understood by the presenters. People associated complaints with the administration, the Babudom, not Modi. People agreed that there was unemployment, back-breaking price rise, and unfulfilled promises, but they did not even remotely consider Modi to be blamed. There are no sign of Modi magic waning, at least going by the numbers. To read it in the drastic reduction of his victory margin may be erroneous.
The real magic
If there was any magic behind the 2024 results, it was due to the opposition posing a single face in the election. This strategy did all the wonders. It was a no-brainer; it could have been suggested even by a school child that if you are faced with a mighty enemy, you could coalesce your forces and fight it. Alas, it happened too late. Anyway, kudos to the opposition parties’ leaders for working out the seat adjustments which resulted in their combine vote share jumping to 42%, close to NDA’s at 45% in the 2019 and 2024 elections. Potentially, their vote share could easily hover over 50%, as 55% people were either opposed or indifferent to the NDA. BJP still managed to fragment opposition votes with some parties which helped it indirectly win the seats. For instance, the BSP led by Mayawati has been instrumental in getting BJP as many as 16 seats in Uttar Pradesh.
The opposition needed to mend a few more things. It needs to discard its blinkers that they can win Hindu votes with their ‘me too Hindu’ kind of posturing. The anti-BJP Hindus, are not looking for Hindus but the ones who are firmly opposed to BJP’s communal Hinduness. If they convince them, most of the anti-BJP votes, which is more than 60%, can potentially come to the INDIA bloc.
The apparent dichotomy in the vote share and seat tally is due to systemic flaws of the first-past-the-post election system that has been crying for change to the deaf nation. It is surprising that people who talk volumes about elections fail to note that this piece of our democratic infrastructure has been at the root of many of our governance deficits. Basically, this system undermines democracy in the sense that theoretically minimum 49% of people are excluded from representation. It privileges strategic management over people’s opinion in elections. Remember, BJP’s vote share in 2014 was just 31%, and yet it won 282 seats, which was more than 52% of seats. In 2019 elections it won 303, i.e., 55.56% seats with 37.34% vote share whereas it gained only 44% seats with the same vote share in the recent elections. There is no evidence to infer that there has been significant change in the opinion of people, but the change is brought about with the strategy of the opposition parties in facing BJP with one face.
Will Modi be tamed?
Most commentators expect Modi 3.0 to be a tamed affair which may not last a full term. I do not agree. While forming the government, he may do whatever it takes, but thereafter he will recoil back to his fascist persona with a vengeance, like a wounded tigress. He will do more of what he knew and did with added fervour of vendetta. For instance, Muslims and Dalits concertedly voted against the BJP, and he will not leave them unpunished. There will be more incarcerations of dissenters (“urban Naxals”), and more raids on and arrests of political opponents by the central agencies under the guise of punishing corruption. He has provided ample clues to this possibility in his post-result speech. It is naïve to expect him to behave differently (which he does not know how to do) at the fag end of his life. He will also push economic reforms (divestment of the PSUs, handing over commons to the crony capitalists, and so on) with renewed vigour to enchant the middle classes and create the impression that India is on the path of becoming a developed economy. The stock market, as the reliable barometer, showed it by reaching the peak on the fabricated exit poll results on June 3 and with a crash when actual results came on June 4.
Also read: So, What Happens to Hindutva Now?
To imagine that Modi would be at the mercy of coalition partners is to overestimate the commitment to democratic morality in the likes of Naidu, Nitish, Eknath Shinde and Chirag Paswan, the foursome on whose support his government depends. As long as they are kept in good humour with pelf and power, they would not raise their voices for democracy, the rule of law, violations of human rights, or any anti-people policy. No political party, including the opposition, has ever shown any real concern for these issues. They have scrupulously avoided issues such as atrocities on Muslims as anti-nationals, fake encounters of Adivasis and Dalits as Naxals, incarceration of defenders of human rights as urban Naxals, etc. It is not an innocent omission; it was a well thought out stratagem though a foolish one.
In the remote event, if Modi sensed challenge (and he is equipped with intricate surveillance infrastructure) to his own position from any corner, he could easily project it as the conspiracy of anti-national forces against his Hindu nationalist agenda. He could still galvanise his army of bhakts and activate the propaganda machine. He may plan some spectacular event or incident to generate a wave of mass sympathy for him and indignation for his opponents. He may then dissolve the parliament and regain himself a huge majority, to accomplish his goal of a Hindu rashtra. A pertinent question is whether the opposition will be able to see through and stall these sinister games. In sum, people can ill afford to be complacent. The INDIA bloc needs to get on to its toes and work harder to stave off bigger dangers Modi 3.0 is likely to pose.
Anand Teltumbde is former CEO, PIL, professor, IIT Kharagpur and GIM, Goa; writer and civil rights activist.
