For two and a half years, Uddhav Thackeray and his Maha Vikas Aghadi staved off all efforts by the Bharatiya Janata Party to dislodge him and his government. And with every success, he grew stronger and more confident that his government would run the course.
The BJP, smarting under the state being snatched away from it, made several attempts to undermine the MVA, including letting loose its proxies such as television channels and friendly anchors, but Thackeray managed to override all of them. Sharad Pawar was seen as the paterfamilias of the government and it was he who guided Uddhav Thackeray on every matter. But Thackeray is no puppet, he is own man; he is politically astute and many decisions bore his hallmarks.
All three partners – the Shiv Sena, the Nationalist Congress Party and the Congress — seem to working in tandem, a few irritants notwithstanding, and the public at large was happy with Thackeray. His calm demeanour, his efforts to provide the state with good governance and, most of all, maintaining peace endeared him to the populace. Even those, who were always critical of the violent ways of the Shiv Sena and feared the worst – he is after all Bal Thackeray’s son – were pleasantly surprised at the radical change in the party under him; the warm online tributes to him after he stepped down – in his usually calm and unruffled manner – are an indicator.
You may have lost your power today @OfficeofUT but you WON our hearts something that no amount of money can buy. ❤️❤️❤️🤗🤗🤗
— Farah Khan (@FarahKhanAli) June 30, 2022
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When the biggest blow came, it was not from long speculated sources such as the Congress or the NCP pulling out – it was his own party colleagues who let him down. Eknath Shinde, who was a hardcore loyalist of the party, led the rebellion and took a large number of MLAs with him. Many observers are shocked how Thackeray’s own party networks or intelligence agencies did not warn him about a rebellion brewing. It is not just a disaster for him and his party , but reflects a weak administration. Here, his benign personality was not of much use.
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Now, it is these very traits of Thackeray’s – an ability to get along with his coalition partners and playing down aggressive Hindutva – that have been cited by Shinde as the reason why he pulled out and took several MLAs with him. Almost one third of the Sena’s legislative party have also walked out and Shinde, who speaks on their behalf, has said that they too are a disgruntled lot for the same reasons. Their own views are not known and sooner or later they will have to answer their party supporters and constituents.
Thackeray, who made a dignified exit after talking about being betrayed by people he trusted, is for the moment left with 16 or so MLAs. They are being wooed by Shinde – how many respond will be known when the new government proves its majority on the floor of the house.
But Thackeray will have to look beyond this immediate issue. It is clear that he knows he has been outwitted, so the floor test may be just a formality. His main concern is the future – of the Shiv Sena more than his own. How does he ensure that the protection of the legacy of his father Bal Thackeray, who founded the Shiv Sena in 1966 and built it brick by brick to become a formidable political machine? Uddhav does not want to be known as the man who squandered that legacy.
He will have to rebuild the Sena to once again become a party of substance which stays relevant in Maharashtra. And for that, he will have to quickly get down to restoring the confidence of a cadre which is understandably glum and demoralised, apart from being completely confused.
Shinde’s revolt has undoubtedly articulated what many Sainiks may be privately thinking: where is Uddhav taking the party? Not just the plan and the vision, but they aren’t even clear of the direction of the Sena. Giving up Hindutva, which has paid electoral dividends in the past, and the party’s rough and ready ways, has been too much to understand and digest. How then would the Shiv Sena be different from the NCP or even the Congress?
When he formed the party, Bal Thackeray laid out a clear agenda: Marathi manoos must get more jobs. He then chose a villain, ‘Madrasis’, whom he called lungiwallas, as the reason why those jobs were not available – they came from outside and grabbed the positions that ought to have gone to Marathi speakers. I will get you those jobs. It was a simple idea, and one that appealed to the youth, who, in the aftermath of the creation of Maharashtra state in 1960, had not seen any material change in their lives. Whether or not that original promise has been fulfilled is a moot point, but certainly in the municipal corporation and the state government, Marathis dominate the jobs. A sense of confidence is palpable among Marathi speakers. In time the targets changed, first to North Indians and then to Muslims, which paid handsomely in the elections of 1995, when the Shiv Sena formed a government with the BJP. The elections also came soon after the worst riots in Bombay’s history in 1992-93 when Sainiks went after Muslims and hundreds of people died.
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Thackeray senior was the overlord, but he too faced rebellion from three trusted men – Chhagan Bhujbal, Narayan Rane and his own favourite nephew Raj Thackeray, which was the one that hurt him the most. But the Sena did not suffer, thanks mainly to the extreme loyalty of his Sainiks. When Bal Thackeray died in 2012 the party was in good shape, and in 2014 won the elections, this time as a junior partner to the BJP; that victory was repeated in 2019, but Uddhav Thackeray broke off that relationship and formed a government with the NCP and the Congress.
Now he has suffered a body blow and it will take a long time to recover from it. He will have to come up with a new idea – the job scene has changed and Maharashtrian youngsters, like anywhere else, are seeking new opportunities in the private sector. The Hindutva plank has been seized upon by Shinde, backed by the BJP – Uddhav can try and play the Hindutva card but he will be one more party in the same business. What new thing does Uddhav have to offer?
There is also the vexed question of the name – who will get it? Shinde could well claim to now be the Shiv Sena and has already issued a whip to Uddhav loyalists. The matter will be settled by the Election Commission and perhaps the courts, but that fight could have a debilitating effect.
For the BJP, finishing off the Sena once and for all is high on its agenda. Uddhav knows this. Perhaps Shinde also knows it – he also realises he may have to move ahead carefully and not turn into just a figurehead chief minister, but to protect his own flock. But it is Uddhav who faces the bigger challenge – he will have to ensure that the party survives the current crisis and once again grows to its former glory. For that, he will have to begin right away to steady the drifting Shiv Sena ship.
