As the world’s largest democratic exercise concluded with the 2024 Lok Sabha elections results being announced, the interesting results, giving a significant bump to the INDIA opposition bloc (in both, vote share and seats), unveiled a significant departure from the BJP’s hegemonic dominance and scale of victory, as observed in 2019 (and 2014). The dramatic underwhelming performance of the incumbent party has triggered a wave of analytical questions to be observed in context to different state-wise outcomes, to ascertain what contributed to the BJP’s loss or contributed to its anti-incumbency wave.
Based on a closer reading of electoral data (and our recent work on state-wise developmental performance-based rankings produced by a study here), we looked more closely at states like Uttar Pradesh, Manipur, Karnataka, and Rajasthan, which serve as pivotal examples, offering interesting insights into India’s evolving political landscape. One, that reflects the people’s will to invest in a robust, electoral opposition to undercut BJP’s hegemonic dominance, while giving a critical insight into how economic misgovernance (or poorly designed governance interventions) can upset the status quo.
Our analysis here delves into their performances across crucial areas such as basic amenities, socio-economic security, education, healthcare, and justice to understand the shifts in election sentiments and voter behaviour.
Source: Authors calculations
In the realm of measuring access to basic amenities, Karnataka leads with the highest Basic Amenities Score of 0.64, showcasing effective implementation of programmes like the Pradhan Mantri Awaas Yojana and Swachh Bharat Abhiyan, which have significantly improved housing and sanitation. This strong performance reflects positively on the BJP-JD(S) alliance’s governance, although the alliance lost some ground in the 2024 elections, indicating that voters demand more than just improvements in access to basic amenities, preferring economic empowerment and opportunity through better developmental prospects.
Rajasthan follows with a Basic Amenities Score of 0.50, demonstrating strides in access to affordable housing and sanitation, but facing inconsistent access to these basic (public) goods across regions (within the state).
Despite these efforts, the economic performance of the state’s rural areas often comes with a lag effect, influencing voter sentiment and demanding a focus on more inclusive opportunities for well-being and development. Uttar Pradesh, as one of the largest and most important electoral states, saw improvements, rising to 18th place in our Access Inequality Report (AEI) study, earlier ranked at 27th in 2021, with notable advancements in the areas of mobile phone usage and housing construction.
However, challenges like the decline in Net Enrollment Ratio and increased dropout rates highlight gaps that the opposition bloc-led by the Samajwadi Party and Indian Nation Congress capitalised on this voter discontentment to gain electoral support (across the critical intra-state distribution of seats and in vote share).
Manipur’s score improvement in the Access Inequality Report is overshadowed by a significant decrease in households living in pucca houses, reflecting the severe impact – in terms of worsening of well-being and developmental opportunities due to ongoing ethnic conflict, which has stymied the state’s development efforts and influenced the electorate to seek – and vote for change through the opposition – Congress’s promises of stability and reconciliation.
Source: Authors calculations
Healthcare indicators reveal Karnataka as the leader with a Health Score of 0.52, driven by significant improvements in healthcare infrastructure and services, partly due to the effective implementation of the Ayushman Bharat scheme. This progress, however, was insufficient to prevent a shift in voter support towards Congress, highlighting a demand for broader development and governance.
Rajasthan follows with a Health Score of 0.50, benefiting from initiatives like the Right to Health Act and the Chiranjeevi Yojna aimed at improving access to medical care. Despite these efforts, the implementation gaps, particularly in rural areas, continue to affect voter confidence. Uttar Pradesh shows positive trends with increased institutional births and immunization rates, yet over 200 healthcare centres still lack proper infrastructure, contributing to the BJP’s declining popularity.
Manipur’s healthcare remains critical, with only 3.6% of households having health insurance and a weak public healthcare infrastructure exacerbated by ethnic conflict. The significant healthcare challenges in Manipur have driven the electorate towards Congress, which has pledged to address these systemic issues.
Source: Authors calculations
In education, Rajasthan leads with a score of 0.48, reflecting considerable progress in enhancing educational infrastructure through reforms like the National Education Policy (NEP). However, rural-urban disparities persist, impacting voter satisfaction and driving calls for more equitable development. Karnataka follows with an Education Score of 0.46, showing improvements through classroom digitization and enhanced school infrastructure.
Despite these advancements, the BJP-JD alliance’s losses in the elections suggest that voters seek more comprehensive solutions to educational disparities. Uttar Pradesh faces significant challenges with a declining Net Enrollment Ratio and increasing dropout rates, despite initiatives like PM Shri. These educational struggles contributed to the BJP’s reduced strike rate, as voters leaned towards the SP and Congress for more promising educational reforms. Manipur’s education sector, with a score of 0.37, has been severely disrupted by ethnic conflict, leading to inconsistent educational services and infrastructure. The electorate’s shift towards Congress reflects a demand for stability and better educational opportunities.
Source: Authors calculations
Socio-economic security remains a mixed bag across these states. Karnataka, with a Socio-Economic Score of 0.46, reflects a relatively strong environment fostered by technological advancements and industrial growth. Despite this, the BJP-JD alliance’s political decline indicates that socio-economic stability alone does not guarantee voter support, highlighting a need for more inclusive and comprehensive policies.
Rajasthan’s Socio-Economic Score of 0.34 underscores ongoing struggles, especially in rural development and economic inclusion. Voter dissatisfaction with these persistent issues impacts political outcomes, pushing for more targeted interventions. Uttar Pradesh, with a score of 0.29, faces high unemployment rates and inadequate public welfare schemes. The BJP’s inability to address these socio-economic challenges effectively has driven voters towards alternatives like the SP and Congress, who promise more robust socio-economic policies. Manipur, with the lowest score of 0.21, highlights the severe impact of ethnic conflict on its socio-economic environment, leading to high unemployment and disrupted economic activities. The electorate’s preference for Congress indicates a desire for conflict resolution and socio-economic stability.
Source: Authors calculations
In the access to justice (legal recourse) pillar, Karnataka stands out with a Justice Score of 0.54, showcasing efforts to improve judicial infrastructure and reduce case backlogs. This high score reflects well on the state’s governance but did not prevent a shift towards Congress, suggesting voters demand even broader reforms. Rajasthan, with a Justice Score of 0.46, has made significant strides in improving its judicial system, yet challenges like case backlogs persist, impacting voter confidence and political stability.
Uttar Pradesh, with the lowest Justice Score of 0.39, struggles with a high backlog of cases, a low ratio of judges to population, and inadequate judicial infrastructure. These justice-related issues have significantly contributed to the BJP’s declining voter base, with the electorate seeking more effective legal reforms promised by the SP and Congress. Manipur’s Justice Score of 0.41 reflects ongoing challenges within the judicial system, exacerbated by the ethnic conflict. The electorate’s shift towards Congress signifies a demand for judicial stability and effective conflict resolution mechanisms.
The 2024 Lok Sabha election outcomes underscore the complex and dynamic nature of India’s electoral democracy, where voter behaviour is strongly influenced by a blend of development metrics, governance effectiveness, and socio-political issues. To put too much faith in one against the other is limiting in scope and takes the average voter’s wisdom for granted. BJP made a similar mistake in 2004 and has probably seen a repeat of that in 2024, even though it has managed to remain in power (with the support of its coalition partners). As the nation continues to evolve, the shifts in political power in some of the critical states like Uttar Pradesh, Manipur, Karnataka, and Rajasthan may help (as case illustrations) offer critical insights into the complex nature of aspirations and concerns of the Indian electorate.
These insights, when mapped with our AEI study findings, also help highlight the importance of responsive and inclusive governance, tailored to address the unique challenges and needs of each state, to ensure balanced and sustainable development across the nation. The political shifts observed in these states suggest a growing demand for the need of macro and micro-level inclusive development policies that address the urban and rural population needs while enhancing access to socio-economic security, improving educational and healthcare outcomes, and ensuring better access to legal recourse (for dispute resolution). Any other issues, as seen in the results of this election, may have little bearing in shaping the national-level electorate vote.
This article has insights drawn from Centre for New Economics Studies (CNES) work on producing the Access (In)Equality Index for state-wise developmental performance across India. Access the report from here, and a series of detailed regional studies earlier carried from the AEI’s findings here.
Deepanshu Mohan is Professor of Economics and Dean, IDEAS, O.P. Jindal Global University. He is Director, Centre for New Economics Studies (CNES) and currently a Visiting Professor at London School of Economics and a 2024 Academic Fellow to University of Oxford. Aditi Desai is a Senior Research Analyst with CNES and Lead of its InfoSphere initiative. Bhanavi Bahl is a Research Analyst with CNES and Aryan Govindkrishnan is a Research Assistant with CNES and a member of the InfoSphere team.
