The haze of uncertainty has dispersed and the tumult of anticipation has subsided to result in unforeseen electoral shifts. Contrary to the prognostications of pollsters and the forecasts of exit polls, which painted a picture of an impending triumph for the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) coalition, the reality unveiled a tapestry of surprise. This unforeseen twist, particularly resonant in the political crucible of Uttar Pradesh (UP), has left pundits and prognosticators alike confounded.
Uttar Pradesh: The political epicentre
Uttar Pradesh, the veritable fulcrum of Indian politics, holds sway over the electoral landscape like few other regions. Home to a staggering one-sixth of the nation’s populace, UP exerts an outsized influence on the trajectory of national elections. With its enviable cache of 80 seats in the Lok Sabha, UP stands as a citadel where political titans clash, alliances are forged and fractured, and electoral fortunes are molded with finesse.
Illustration: Pariplab Chakraborty
The BJP’s fortunes in UP were of paramount significance; the attainment of the cherished 272-seat threshold, indispensable for wielding parliamentary authority, hinged significantly on its performance in this pivotal state.
In the electoral spectacle of yesteryears, the BJP had etched resounding victories, clinching 73 seats in 2014 and 64 seats in 2019 (comprising 62 for the BJP and 2 for its allies). The pre-election landscape was replete with projections of a secure future for the BJP in UP, with expectations either of consolidating its gains or at the very least maintaining the status quo. However, as the arcane mechanisms of the electoral process unfolded, the actual narrative diverged markedly from the anticipated script.
Pre-election aspirations and ground realities
In the lead-up to the electoral showdown, the BJP nursed aspirations of bolstering its electoral footprint in UP, leveraging the charisma of its principal leaders – the Prime Minister and the Chief Minister – to shore up its electoral fortunes. The aim was twofold: to fortify its existing bastions and to make inroads into new territories. Yet, the unfolding electoral saga defied simplistic narratives. Unlike the clear-cut victories of yore, UP emerged as an enigma, its electoral pulse eluding facile prognostication.
Initial phases: A tale of mixed fortunes
The early salvos of the electoral battle, encompassing the first two phases, yielded a mixed harvest for the BJP. The initial fervour anticipated by pundits was conspicuously absent, with voter enthusiasm waning and the opposition’s vigour somewhat muted.
Despite these headwinds, the BJP managed to clinch victories in a commendable tally of 10 seats: Bijnor, Pilibhit, Aligarh, Amroha, Baghpat, Bulandshahr, Gautam Buddh Nagar, Ghaziabad, Mathura, and Meerut – actually sweeping the second phase. However, the opposition’s incipient resurgence made its presence felt, wresting six seats from the BJP’s grasp: Kairana, Moradabad, Muzaffarnagar, Rampur and Saharanpur.
In the solitary precinct of Nagina, Chandrashekhar Azad of the Azad Samaj Party ascended as the triumphant protagonist, eclipsing the BJP’s Om Kumar by an overwhelming margin exceeding 1,50,000 votes. Though the initial momentum appeared to favour the BJP, the shifting sands of electoral fortune heralded a paradigmatic shift.
The turning of the tide: Opposition gains momentum
As the electoral saga unfolded, traversing the diverse terrain of the Yadav belt, Bundelkhand, Rohilkhand, and Avadh, the opposition — most notably the Samajwadi Party (SP) — embarked on a spirited offensive. The clarion call to uphold the sanctity of the constitution resonated deeply, galvanising the electorate and imbuing the electoral discourse with renewed vigour. In the pivotal third phase, encompassing 10 constituencies, the SP emerged triumphant in six: Aonla, Badaun, Etah, Firozabad, Mainpuri, and Sambhal, leaving the BJP to salvage a modest tally of four seats: Agra, Bareilly, Fatehpur Sikri, and Hathras, albeit with significantly reduced margins.
Also read: Akhilesh Yadav’s ‘PDA’ Trumps Modi-Adityanath’s Hindutva in Uttar Pradesh
Continued ebb and flow in subsequent phases
The electoral symphony, unfolding through successive phases, witnessed a crescendo of opposition gains, punctuated by occasional salvos from the BJP camp. In the fourth phase, spanning 13 constituencies, the SP secured four seats — Dhaurahra, Etawah, Kannauj, and Kheri — while the Congress made inroads with one seat in Sitapur. Notably, the recapture of Kannauj by over 1,70,000 votes, by Akhilesh Yadav, underscored the shifting sands of electoral fortune. The BJP won eight seats in the phase – Akbarpur, Bahraich, Farrukhabad, Hardoi, Kanpur, Misrikh Shahjahanpur and Unnao.
The culmination: A tale of unexpected realignment
The denouement of the electoral saga, unfolding in the final three phases encompassing the regions of Avadh, Bundelkhand, and Purvanchal, witnessed a seismic shift in the electoral landscape. Out of a total of 41 seats up for grabs, the SP emerged as the undisputed victor, seizing a staggering 23 seats – Banda, Faizabad, Fatehpur, Ahmirpur, Jalaun, Kaushambi, Mohanlalganj, Ambedkar Nagar, Azamgarh, Basti, Jaunpur, Lalganj, Machhlishahr, Pratapgarh, Sant Kabir Nagar, Shravasti, Sultanpur, Ballia, Chandauli, Ghazipur, Ghosi, Robertsganj and Salempur.
The Congress too made significant inroads, securing four seats: Amethi, Rae Bareli, Allahabad and Barabanki. In contrast, the BJP and its ally Apna Dal (Sonelal) could only muster a paltry tally of 14 seats: Gonda, Jhansi, Kaiserganj, Lucknow, Bhadohi, Domariyaganj, Phulpur, Bansgaon, Deoria, Gorakhpur, Kushinagar, Maharajganj, Mirzpur and Prime Minister’s seat Varanasi, grappling with unexpected setbacks in erstwhile bastions.
This bastion, which was the BJP’s most formidable stronghold in 2014 and 2019, now finds the party clinging to a mere 14 seats. Even among these, several victories, such as those in Bansgaon and Phulpur, were secured by the slimmest of margins. The BJP’s vote share has plummeted substantially across the remaining constituencies.
The party’s predicament is epitomised by Varanasi, once deemed its safest seat. Prime Minister Modi, who had previously triumphed here with a margin exceeding 4,75,000 votes, saw this lead dwindle dramatically, barely holding the seat with just over 1,50,000 votes. Additionally, the ousting of Smriti Irani in Amethi by a margin exceeding 1,50,000 votes to a neophyte Congress loyalist has accentuated a profound shift in the state’s political topography. Irani had previously wrested this Gandhi family stronghold from Rahul Gandhi in 2019.
One outcome that is particularly poignant for the BJP is the result in Faizabad. The contest in this constituency became fiercely competitive just months after the Pran Pratishtha, a significant event. This subtle yet impactful development is likely to stir profound disquiet within the BJP, given that its political journey has both orbited around and evolved through the sacred environs of Ayodhya. Samajwadi Party’s candidate, the seasoned nine-term MLA Avadhesh Prasad, triumphed in Faizabad by a margin of slightly over 50,000 votes, defeating the incumbent two-term MP and five-term MLA Lallu Singh.
Analysis of the electoral landscape
This unforeseen electoral upheaval underscores a fundamental undercurrent that eluded the purview of conventional wisdom. The SP’s spectacular performance across diverse regions – from western UP to the Yadav belt, Rohilkhand, Avadh, and Purvanchal – reflects a nuanced realignment of political forces. The consolidation of Muslim-Yadav votes, hitherto unseen in recent electoral history, signals a seismic shift in the political landscape. Furthermore, the SP’s outreach to Non-Yadav OBCs and Non-Jatav Dalits under the banner of ‘Save Constitution’ has reaped rich dividends, revitalising its electoral fortunes.
Conclusion: Implications for the future
The recalibration of Dalit votes, with significant segments veering towards the SP-Congress alliance, emerges as a linchpin in the electoral narrative. This realignment, underscored by historical precedent, imbues UP’s political landscape with an aura of intrigue and uncertainty. As the political pendulum continues its oscillation, Uttar Pradesh stands poised at the cusp of a transformative era, its electoral dynamics primed for further evolution.
